• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fire risk estimation

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Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis (확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안)

  • Park, So-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2009
  • Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

Risk Assessment of Stationary Hydrogen Refueling Station by Section in Dispenser Module (고정식 수소충전소에서의 Dispenser Module 내 구역별 위험성 평가)

  • SangJin Lim;MinGi Kim;Su Kim;YoonHo Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2023
  • Demand for hydrogen as a renewable energy resource is increasing. However, unlike conventional fossil fuels, hydrogen requires a dedicated refueling station for fuel supply. A risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations must be undertaken to secure the infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, a risk assessment for hydrogen refueling stations was conducted through both qualitative and quantitative risk assessments. For the qualitative evaluation, the hydrogen dispenser module was evaluated as two nodes using the hazard and operability (HAZOP) analysis. The risk due to filter clogging and high-pressure accidents was evaluated to be high according to the criticality estimation matrix. For the quantitative risk assessment, the Hydrogen Korea Risk Assessment Module (Hy-KoRAM) was used to indicate the shape of the fire and the range of damage impact, and to evaluate the individual and social risks. The individual risk level was determined of to be as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). Additional safety measures proposed include placing the hydrogen refueling station about 100m away from public facilities. The social risk level was derived as 1E-04/year, with a frequency of approximately 10 deaths, falling within the ALARP range. As a result of the qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, additional safety measures for the process and a safety improvement plan are proposed through the establishment of a restricted area near the hydrogen refueling station.

Comparisons of Core Temperature Between a Telemetric Pill and Heart Rate Estimated Core Temperature in Firefighters

  • Pearson, Stephen J.;Highlands, Brian;Jones, Rebecca;Matthews, Martyn J.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.99-103
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    • 2022
  • Background: Firefighters may experience high environmental temperatures or carry out intensive physical tasks, or both, which leads to increased core body temperature and risk of fatalities. Hence there is a need to remotely and non-invasively monitor core body temperature. Methods: Estimated (heart rate algorithm) and actual core body temperature (ingested telemetric pill) measures were collected simultaneously for comparison during training exercises on 44 firefighter volunteers. Results: Prediction of core body temperature varied, with no specific identifiable pattern between the algorithm values and directly measured body core temperatures. Group agreement of Lin's Concordance of 0.74 (95% Upper 0.75, lower CI 0.73), was deemed poor. Conclusion: From individual agreement data Lin's Concordance was variable (Min 0.11, CI 0.13-0.01; Max 0.83, CI 0.86-0.80), indicating that the heart rate algorithm approach was not suitable for core body temperature monitoring in this population group, especially at the higher more critical core body temperatures seen.

Statistical estimation of forest fire risk considering spatial autocorrelation (공간상관성을 고려한 산불발생위험의 통계적 추정)

  • Kwak, Han-Bin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Lee, Si-Young;Won, Myoung-Soo;Koo, Kyo-Sang;Lee, Myung-Bo;Lee, Byung-Doo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2010.09a
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    • pp.93-94
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구는 공간통계적 방법을 이용하여 산불발생의 위험도를 통계적으로 예측하고자 하였다. 연구 재료는 전국에서 발생한 1991년부터 2008년까지 산불발생 위치자료를 이용하였다. 점사상을 양적데이터로 전환하기 위해 전국을 공간격자로 구성하여 격자형 자료화 하여 사용하였다. 전국산불 발생위치를 산불발생위치들 간의 공간상관성을 고려하여 일반적인 통계모형에 공간통계적인 기법을 더하여 산불발생의 위치를 더욱 정확하게 추정하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 회귀모형과 공간모형의 혼합모형의 한 방법인 regression kriging 방법을 적용하였다. 그 결과 공간상관성을 고려한 공간통계적 방법은 산불발생의 공간적 군집을 더욱 정확하게 예측할 수 있었다.

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A Comparative Study on the Methods of Consequence Estimation in Fire and Explosion Hazards (화재 및 폭발재해의 강도 산정에 관한 비교 연구)

  • 김구회;백종배;고재욱
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 1993
  • Many methods to assess hazards caused by the risks increased with the growth of petrochemical industry. The manual of International Atomic Energy Agency which was much more applied to quantitative analysis of the real situation and the CPQRA is introduced to verify the theoretical background of this manual. Than other methods, as a result, we can see that this manual, which is simple to use and requires a little information, shows similar results to those of calculation by numerical formula. Also, the program code of this manual was materialized and if it is possible to obtain adequate parameters to our circumstance, the manual will be quite useful in early risk analysis.

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Estimation of Safety in Railway Tunnel by Using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA를 이용한 철도터널 방재 안전성 평가)

  • Kim, Do-Sik;Kim, Do-Hyung;Kim, Woo-Sung;Lee, Du-Hwa;Lee, Ho-Seok
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.16 no.5 s.64
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    • pp.357-367
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    • 2006
  • Recently, as the construction of new railway and the relocation of existing line increase, tunnel structures grow longer. The railway fire accidents in long tunnel bring large damages of human life and disaster. The interest of safety in long tunnel have a growing and the safety standard of long tunnel is tightening. For that reason, at the planning of long tunnel, the optimum design of safety facility in long tunnel for minimizing the risks and satisfying the safety standard is needed. For the reasonable design of long railway tunnel considering high safety, qualitative estimation for tunnel safety is required. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) technique is applied to design of long railway tunnel for assuring the safety function and estimating the risk of safety. The case study for safety design in long railway tunnel is tarried out to verifying the QRA technique for two railway tunnels. Thus, the inclined and vertical shaft for escape way and safety facilities in long tunnel are planned, and the risks of tunnel safety for each case are estimated quantitatively.

Risk Management for Ammonia Unloading and Storage Tank Facility (암모니아 입하 및 저장시설에서의 위험도 관리)

  • Jeong, Yun Seo;Woo, In Sung;Lim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2017
  • A lot of hazardous materials have been used for product processing and utility plant. Many accidents including toxic release, fire and explosions occur in the ammonia related facility and plant. Various safety and environment management program including PSM, SMS, ORA etc. are being implemented for risk management and accident prevention in the production industry. Also much study and research have been carried about risk assessment of accident scenario in the academic and research area. In this paper, firstly risk level was assessed by using a typically used KORA program and LOPA PFD method for the selected ammonia unloading and storage facility. And then risk reduction measures for the risk assessed facility were studied in 3 aspects and some measures were proposed. Those Risk Reduction measures are including a leak detection and emergency isolation, water spray, dilution tank, dike and trench, scattering protection in hardware impovement aspect, and a applicable risk criteria, conditional modifier for existing LOPA PFD, alternative supporting modeling program in risk estimation methodology aspect, and last RBPS(Risk Based Process Safety) program, re-doing of process hazard analysis, management system compliance audit in managerial activity aspect.

A Study on the prediction of SOH estimation of waste lithium-ion batteries based on SVM model (서포트 벡터 머신 기반 폐리튬이온전지의 건전성(SOH)추정 예측에 관한 연구)

  • KIM SANGBUM;KIM KYUHA;LEE SANGHYUN
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.727-730
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    • 2023
  • The operation of electric automatic windows is used in harsh environments, and the energy density decreases as charging and discharging are repeated, and as soundness deteriorates due to damage to the internal separator, the vehicle's mileage decreases and the charging speed slows down, so about 5 to 10 Batteries that have been used for about a year are classified as waste batteries, and for this reason, as the risk of battery fire and explosion increases, it is essential to diagnose batteries and estimate SOH. Estimation of current battery SOH is a very important content, and it evaluates the state of the battery by measuring the time, temperature, and voltage required while repeatedly charging and discharging the battery. There are disadvantages. In this paper, measurement of discharge capacity (C-rate) using a waste battery of a Tesla car in order to predict SOH estimation of a lithium-ion battery. A Support Vector Machine (SVM), one of the machine models, was applied using the data measured from the waste battery.

The Study of Outflow Rate of Stair and Turnstile in Subway Station - Comparison between Measurement and Simulation (지하철 역사에서 개찰구 및 계단 유출특성에 관한 연구 - 실측과 시뮬레이션의 비교)

  • Kim, Eung-Sik;Cho, Ju-Ho;Kim, Myeoung-Hun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 2010
  • Recently commercial egress softwares are frequently used for the risk assessment. The estimation of evacuation time is an important procedure and the outflow coefficient in a bottleneck becomes the crucial factor for design of emergency planning. This paper compares the outflow coefficient of measurement with those of softwares in the bottlenecks of subway stations where masses of people movement is observed. Stairway and turnstile are the 2 bottleneck points along escape pathway. For the escape simulation it is recommended that 2 different modes be used in the programs for 2 kinds of bottleneck. The results of the comparison makes a big difference among them and some of differences can be reduced by correct design of input data. In conclusion the results of simulation should be examined thoroughly by procedure of comparisons with other results.

A Study on the Overpressure Estimation of BLEVE (BLEVE로 인한 과압 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim In-Tae;Kim In-Won;Song Hee-Oeul
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.4 no.1 s.9
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2000
  • Explosion Quantities and flashing mass resulting from the variation of temperature are calculated by a computer program, BLEVE ESTIMATOR, to carry out the risk assessment of BLEVE. The damages caused by the BLEVE are estimated under the explosion of the simulation condition similar to the Puchun LP gas station accident, and the results are compared with the commercial program SAFER of Dupont CO. Explosion quantities and flashing mass increase exponentially with the increase of explosion temperature. These values for propane are relatively higher than those for n-butane. In conditions of higher vessel temperature, vessel pressure, and liquid ratio of containment, higher overpressures are calculated.

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