• Title/Summary/Keyword: Financial Big data

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Analyzing on the Fluctuation Characteristics of Management Condition of Construction Company (건설업체 경영상태 변동에 대한 특성 분석)

  • Jang, Ho-Myun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.1118-1125
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    • 2014
  • The past IMF foreign exchange crisis and subprime financial crisis had a big influence on variability of macroeconomics, even if the origin of its occurrence might be different. This not only had a significant infrequence on the overall industries, but also produced many insolvent companies by being closely linked with a management environment of an individual construction company leading the construction industry. The purpose of this research is to investigate characteristics of management condition of construction company according to the size of construction company using KMV model developed on the basis of the Black & Scholes option pricing theory. This research has set 28 construction companies listed to KOSPI/KOSDAQ for applying the KMV model and measuring the level of the default risk of construction companies. The data was retrieved from TS2000 established by Korea Listed Companies Association (KLCA), Statistics Korea. The analysis period is between first quarter of 2004 and fourth quarter of 2010. This research examine characteristics of the level and fluctuation process of the management condition of construction company according to the size of construction company.

A Study on Analysis of Factors Affecting Technology Transfer Performance of Universities : An Approach to Different Types of Korean Universities (대학의 기술이전성과 영향요인 분석 : 대학의 유형별 접근)

  • Lee, Chang-Hak;Lee, Cheol-Gyu;Lee, Dong-Myung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.3936-3951
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    • 2011
  • This paper aims to analyze factors affecting technology transfer performance according to different types of Korean universities and to conduct the research for the channel and extent of impact between these factors, utilizing 5 - year data for the technology transfers of 110 universities based on the survey by National Research Foundation of Korea. According to the analysis, incentive for researchers is the most crucial factor in local universities and small & medium-sized private universities located in the capital area. And numerical value of intellectual property rights owned by university is the key factor in universities specializing in science & engineering / industry. Also, Big-sized universities are heavily affected by the number of full-time faculty. In case of private universities, government subsidy relating to patents is critical factor for technology transfer performance. The mean value of all variables is a lot higher in participant universities than non-participant ones in CK(Connect Korea) project. In summary, it is suggested that steady financial support provided by the government is required and that mutual cooperation for industry-university-government is also needed for the commercialization of the technologies held by universities.

The Rated Self: Credit Rating and the Outsoursing of Human Judgment (평가된 자아: 신용평가와 도덕적, 경제적 가치 평가의 외주화)

  • Yi, Doogab
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.91-135
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    • 2019
  • As we live a life increasingly mediated by computers, we often outsource our critical judgments to artificial intelligence(AI)-based algorithms. Most of us have become quite dependent upon algorithms: computers are now recommending what we see, what we buy, and who we befriend with. What happens to our lives and identities when we use statistical models, algorithms, AI, to make a decision for us? This paper is a preliminary attempt to chronicle a historical trajectory of judging people's economic and moral worth, namely the history of credit-rating within the context of the history of capitalism. More importantly this paper will critically review the history of credit-rating from its earlier conception to the age of big data and algorithmic evaluation, in order to ask questions about what the political implications of outsourcing our judgments to computer models and artificial intelligence would be. Some of the questions I would like to ask in this paper are: by whom and for what purposes is the computer and artificial intelligence encroached into the area of judging people's economic and moral worth? In what ways does the evolution of capitalism constitute a new mode of judging people's financial and personal identity, namely the rated self? What happens in our self-conception and identity when we are increasingly classified, evaluated, and judged by computer models and artificial intelligence? This paper ends with a brief discussion on the political implications of the outsourcing of human judgment to artificial intelligence, and some of the analytic frameworks for further political actions.

A Deep Learning Method for Cost-Effective Feed Weight Prediction of Automatic Feeder for Companion Animals (반려동물용 자동 사료급식기의 비용효율적 사료 중량 예측을 위한 딥러닝 방법)

  • Kim, Hoejung;Jeon, Yejin;Yi, Seunghyun;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.263-278
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    • 2022
  • With the recent advent of IoT technology, automatic pet feeders are being distributed so that owners can feed their companion animals while they are out. However, due to behaviors of pets, the method of measuring weight, which is important in automatic feeding, can be easily damaged and broken when using the scale. The 3D camera method has disadvantages due to its cost, and the 2D camera method has relatively poor accuracy when compared to 3D camera method. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a deep learning approach that can accurately estimate weight while simply using a 2D camera. For this, various convolutional neural networks were used, and among them, the ResNet101-based model showed the best performance: an average absolute error of 3.06 grams and an average absolute ratio error of 3.40%, which could be used commercially in terms of technical and financial viability. The result of this study can be useful for the practitioners to predict the weight of a standardized object such as feed only through an easy 2D image.

Domain Knowledge Incorporated Counterfactual Example-Based Explanation for Bankruptcy Prediction Model (부도예측모형에서 도메인 지식을 통합한 반사실적 예시 기반 설명력 증진 방법)

  • Cho, Soo Hyun;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.307-332
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    • 2022
  • One of the most intensively conducted research areas in business application study is a bankruptcy prediction model, a representative classification problem related to loan lending, investment decision making, and profitability to financial institutions. Many research demonstrated outstanding performance for bankruptcy prediction models using artificial intelligence techniques. However, since most machine learning algorithms are "black-box," AI has been identified as a prominent research topic for providing users with an explanation. Although there are many different approaches for explanations, this study focuses on explaining a bankruptcy prediction model using a counterfactual example. Users can obtain desired output from the model by using a counterfactual-based explanation, which provides an alternative case. This study introduces a counterfactual generation technique based on a genetic algorithm (GA) that leverages both domain knowledge (i.e., causal feasibility) and feature importance from a black-box model along with other critical counterfactual variables, including proximity, distribution, and sparsity. The proposed method was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively to measure the quality and the validity.

A Study on the Adaptation to Korean College life of Uzbekistan Students' (재한 우즈베키스탄 유학생들의 한국 대학생활 적응에 관한 연구)

  • Firuza, Azizova
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.517-531
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out for the purpose of investigating Uzbekistan students's adaptation to Korea college life. Qualitative interviews were conducted in regards to the motivation for college entrance and stresses incurred during college life for 10 Uzbekistan students who were studying at I college located in Incheon. Data from the interviews were analyzed using theme analysis method. Most of the participants in this study got information about Korean colleges through their overseas study exhibitions in their own countries and became Korea college. The results showed that the reasons for college enrollment were (1)preparation for future goals (2)the influence of family. In Uzbekistan, parents play a big role in determining their children's education. Therefore, their decision to study abroad and the role of their parents were significant. The stress they experienced in college life fell into five categories, namely, (1)financial stress (2)stress about studies (3) stress in regards to human relationships (4)stress in regards to their futures and getting a job. In addition, this study discussed how to solve such as problems experienced by Uzbekistan students. And also the role of college and the necessity of providing appropriate support programs were discussed. Finally, the implications of these findings were presented.

The Analysis on the Relationship between Firms' Exposures to SNS and Stock Prices in Korea (기업의 SNS 노출과 주식 수익률간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Taehwan;Jung, Woo-Jin;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.233-253
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    • 2014
  • Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

A Study on Trust Transfer in Traditional Fintech of Smart Banking (핀테크 서비스에서 오프라인에서 온라인으로의 신뢰전이에 관한 연구 - 스마트뱅킹을 중심으로 -)

  • Ai, Di;Kwon, Sun-Dong;Lee, Su-Chul;Ko, Mi-Hyun;Lee, Bo-Hyung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.167-184
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we investigated the effect of offline banking trust on smart banking trust. As influencing factors of smart banking trust, this study compared offline banking trust, smart banking's system quality, and information quality. For the empirical study, 186 questionnaire data were collected from smart banking users and the data were analyzed using Smart-PLS 2.0. As results, it was verified that there is trust transfer in FinTech service, by the significant effect of offline banking trust on smart banking trust. And it was proved that the effect of offline banking trust on smart banking trust is lower than that of smart banking itself. The contribution of this study can be seen in both academic and industrial aspects. First, it is the contribution of the academic aspect. Previous studies on banking were focused on either offline banking or smart banking. But this study, focus on the relationship between offline banking and online banking, proved that offline banking trust affects smart banking trust. Next, it is the industrial contribution. This study showed that offline banking characteristics of traditional commercial banks affect the trust of emerging smart banking service. This means that the emerging FinTech companies are not advantageous in the competition of trust building compared to traditional commercial banks. Unlike traditional commercial banks, the emerging FinTech is innovating the convenience of customers by arming them with new technologies such as mobile Internet, social network, cloud technology, and big data. However, these FinTech strengths alone can not guarantee sufficient trust needed for financial transactions, because banking customers do not change a habit or an inertia that they already have during using traditional banks. Therefore, emerging FinTech companies should strive to create destructive value that reflects the connection with various Internet services and the strength of online interaction such as social services, which have an advantage over customer contacts. And emerging FinTech companies should strive to build service trust, focused on young people with low resistance to new services.

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A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.