• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.717-723
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• 2011

When the Balise(the device to transmit information between the on-board equipment and the wayside equipment) failure occurs, it may not be able to transmit data(Telegram) required for the train running. And in some cases, it may be able to cause an accident. Therefore, both the Balise failure affecting train safety running and the hazard in accordance with Balise failure require some activities to establish them. General failure mode & hazard analysis associated with the Balise are described in UNISIG SUBSET-036 spec & UNISIG SUBSET-088 spec. And, with reference to these specifications, safety activities are being performed. In recent domestic railway, the train control system applying ETCS(European Train Control System) Level 1, 2 is being serviced and is being planned, and as part of this system, the Balise is being applied. The design-method of the Balise device for each manufacturer are different, therefore the Balise failure mode & failure rate are different, either. But the functionalities & transmission-data format(Telegram) of the Balise in ETCS Level 1, 2 application for each manufacturer are identical. Accordingly, the hazard caused by function-fail can be identical, either. In order to establish these hazard, in this paper, we analyzed the detailed functions of the Balise. And we analyzed the Balise failure types & failure effects in accordance with the detailed functions.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.59-67
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• 1991

The hazard estimator is proposed for estimating system failure probability of a general network where all minimal cut sets are given. Theoretical variance of the hazard estimator is derived in a bridge system. It is demonstrated that variance of the hazard estimator is much smaller than that of the raw simulation estimator particularly for small arc failure probability.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.1-26
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• 2001

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a proportional reversed hazard rate model, in contrast to the celebrated proportional hazard model, and study some of its structural properties. Some criteria of ageing are presented and the inheritance of the ageing notions (of the base line distribution) by the proposed model are studied. Two important data sets are analyzed: one uncensored and the other having some censored observations. In both cases, the confidence bands for the failure rate and survival function are investigated. In one case the failure rate is bathtub shaped and in the other it is upside bath tub shaped and thus the failure rates are non-monotonic even though the baseline failure rate is monotonic. In addition, the estimates of the turning points of the failure rates are provided.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.87-96
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• 2007

In this paper a methodology of identifying individual pipes according to the internal and external characteristics of pipe is developed, and the methodology is applied to a case study water distribution pipe break database. Using the newly defined individual pipes the hazard rates of the cast iron 6 inch pipes are modeled by implementing the proportional hazards modeling approach for consecutive pipe failures. The covariates to be considered in the modeling procedures are selected by considering the general availability of the data and the practical applicability of the modeling results. The individual cast iron 6 inch pipes are categorized into seven ordered survival time groups according to the total number of breaks recorded in a pipe to construct distinct proportional hazard model (PHM) for each survival time group (STG). The modeling results show that all of the PHMs have the hazard rate forms of the Weibull distribution. In addition, the estimated baseline survivor functions show that the survival probabilities of the STGs generally decrease as the number of break increases. It is found that STG I has an increasing hazard rate whereas the other STGs have decreasing hazard rates. Regarding the first failure the hazard ratio of spun-rigid and spun-flex cast iron pipes to pit cast iron pipes is estimated as 1.8 and 6.3, respectively. For the second or more failures the relative effects of pipe material/joint type on failure were not conclusive. The degree of land development affected pipe failure for STGs I, II, and V, and the average hazard ratio was estimated as 1.8. The effects of length on failure decreased as more breaks occur and the population in a GRID affected the hazard rate of the first pipe failure.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.173-180
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• 2022

Most of the drinking water dams managed by the local governments in Korea are earthfill dams, and these dams have almost no geotechnical property information necessary for seismic performance evaluation. Nevertheless, in the rough planning stage for improving seismic safety for these dams, it is necessary to classify their relative seismic hazard against earthquakes and conduct an additional ground investigation. The zero seismic failure probability curve is a curve suggested in this study in which the probability of failure due to an earthquake becomes '0' regardless of the geotechnical properties of the earthfill dam. By examining the method and procedure for calculating failure probability due to an earthquake suggested in previous researches, the zero seismic failure probability curves for an earthquake in 1,000-year and 2,400-year return periods in Korea were presented in the form of a hyperbola on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio (ratio of freeboard to dam height), respectively. The distribution characteristics of the dam height and the freeboard ratio of 81 Korean earthfill dams were presented. The two proposed zero seismic failure probability curves are shown on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio, and the relative seismic hazard of 81 dams can be classified into three groups using these curves as boundaries. This study presented the method of classifying the relative seismic hazard and the classification result.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.7-14
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• 2011

Infinite failure NHPP models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rate per fault (hazard function). This infinite non-homogeneous Poisson process is model which reflects the possibility of introducing new faults when correcting or modifying the software. In this paper, polynomial hazard function have been proposed, which can efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm for estimating the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method. Model selection based on mean square error and the coefficient of determination for the sake of efficient model were employed. In numerical example, log power time model of the existing model in this area and the polynomial hazard function model were compared using failure interval time. Because polynomial hazard function model is more efficient in terms of reliability, polynomial hazard function model as an alternative to the existing model also were able to confirm that can use in this area.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.170-175
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• 2005

This study presents a prediction of a failure rate in a safety required system that consists of a embedded control system, requiring a satisfaction of a quantitative safety requirement. International Standards are employed to achieve a regular procedures in the whole life cycle of a system, for the purpose of a prediction and a evaluation of a fault that might be able to be happened in a system. This International Standards uses SIL (Safety Integrity Level) to evaluate a safety level of a system. SIL is divided into 4 levels, from level 1 to level 4, and each level has functional failure rate and dangerous failure rate of a system. In this paper we describe the conventional method to predict the dangerous failure rate and propose a method using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate. The conventional method and the technique using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate are made a comparison through the control modules of the interlocking system in KTX. The proposed method verify better effectiveness for the prediction of the dangerous failure rate than that of the conventional method.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 2002

In reliability engineering, the bathtub-shaped hazard rates play an important role in survival analysis and many other applications as well. For the bathtub-shaped, initially the hazard rate decreases from a relatively high value due to manufacturing defects or infant mortality to a relatively stable middle useful life value and then slowly increases with the onset of old age or wear out. In this paper, we present a new two-parameter lifetime distribution function, called the Loglog distribution, with Vtub-shaped hazard rate function. We illustrate the usefulness of the new Vtub-shaped hazard rate function by evaluating the reliability of several helicopter parts based on the data obtained in the maintenance malfunction information reporting system database collected from October 1995 to September 1999. We develop the S-Plus add-in software tool, called Reliability and Safety Assessment (RSA), to calculate reliability measures include mean time to failure, mean residual function, and confidence Intervals of the two helicopter critical parts. We use the mean squared error to compare relative goodness of fit test of the distribution models include normal, lognormal, and Weibull within the two data sets. This research indicates that the result of the new Vtub-shaped hazard rate function is worth the extra function-complexity for a better relative fit. More application in broader validation of this conclusion is needed using other data sets for reliability modeling in a general industrial setting.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2003.03a
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• pp.509-512
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• 2003

Our country is serious difference of precipitation seasonally and about 66% of yearly mean rainfall is happening in concentration rainfall form between September on June. It requires consideration because of a lot of natural disasters by this downpour are produced. Slope failure is happened by artificial factor of creation of slope according to the land development, fill slope etc. and natural factor of rainfall, topography, nature of soil, soil quality, rock floor. Usually, Direct factor of failure slope is downpour. In this study, the Slope about among 55 places happened failure by downpour investigated occurrence position, geological etc and executed and inquire into character of rainfall connected with failure slope. Among character of rainfall, executed analysis about Max. hourly rainfall and cumulative rainfall of place that failure slope is situated and grasped the geological character of failure slope. Through this, inquire to character of failure slope by rainfall and take advantage of basis study for Hazard map creation.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.245-251
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• 2018

In this paper, we address some issues in existing seismic hazard closed-form equations and present a novel seismic hazard equation form to overcome these issues. The presented equation form is based on higher-order polynomials, which can well describe the seismic hazard information with relatively high non-linearity. The accuracy of the proposed form is illustrated not only in the seismic hazard data itself but also in estimating the annual probability of failure (APF) of the structural systems. For this purpose, the information on seismic hazard is used in representative areas of the United States (West : Los Angeles, Central : Memphis and Kansas, East : Charleston). Examples regarding the APF estimation are the analyses of existing platform structure and nuclear power plant problems. As a result of the numerical example analyses, it is confirmed that the higher-order-polynomial-based hazard form presented in this paper could predict the APF values of the two example structure systems as well as the given seismic hazard data relatively accurately compared with the existing closed-form hazard equations. Therefore, in the future, it is expected that we can derive a new improved APF function by combining the proposed hazard formula with the existing fragility equation.