• Title/Summary/Keyword: Extreme Events

Search Result 441, Processing Time 0.039 seconds

MODIS 위성영상 기반 ESI와 ROC 분석을 이용한 가뭄위험평가 (Drought Hazard Assessment using MODIS-based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and ROC Analysis)

  • 윤동현;남원호;이희진;홍은미;김태곤
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제62권3호
    • /
    • pp.51-61
    • /
    • 2020
  • Drought events are not clear when those start and end compared with other natural disasters. Because drought events have different timing and severity of damage depending on the region, various studies are being conducted using satellite images to identify regional drought occurrence differences. In this study, we investigated the applicability of drought assessment using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images. The ESI is an indicator of agricultural drought that describes anomalies in actual and reference evapotranspiration (ET) ratios that are retrieved using remotely sensed inputs of Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Leaf Area Index (LAI). However, these approaches have a limited spatial resolution when mapping detailed vegetation stress caused by drought, and drought hazard in the actual crop cultivation areas due to the small crop cultivation in South Korea. For these reasons, the development of a drought index that provides detailed higher resolution ESI, a 500 m resolution image is essential to improve the country's drought monitoring capabilities. The newly calculated ESI was verified through the existing 5 km resolution ESI and historical records for drought impacts. This study evaluates the performance of the recently developed 500 m resolution ESI for severe and extreme drought events that occurred in South Korea in 2001, 2009, 2014, and 2017. As a result, the two ES Is showed high correlation and tendency using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. In addition, it will provide the necessary information on the spatial resolution to evaluate regional drought hazard assessment and and the small-scale cultivation area across South Korea.

기상예보와 단순 강우-유출 모형을 이용한 확률적 홍수해석 (A stochastic flood analysis using weather forecasts and a simple catchment dynamics)

  • 김대하;장상민
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
    • /
    • 제50권11호
    • /
    • pp.735-743
    • /
    • 2017
  • 기후변화에 대한 우려와 함께 증가하고 있는 극한호우의 피해를 줄이기 위해서는 호우사상 발생 이전에 홍수위험을 미리 파악하여 피해를 대비할 시간을 늘리는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 기상청 동네예보를 기반으로 하는 간단한 확률적 홍수위험 산정방법을 제시하였다. 예보강수를 조건부로 하는 6시간 강수량의 확률밀도함수를 이용해 다수의 임의 강수량을 생성한 후 추계학적 모형으로 1시간 단위로 분해하여 간단한 강우-유출모형에 입력하는 방법을 사용하였다. 보청천 유역의 2017년 주요 강우사상에 제안된 방법을 적용한 결과, 7월 4일 최대홍수량이 나타났던 사상에 대해서는 예보강수를 이용한 모의는 홍수위험을 과소평가하였음을 확인하였고 반면 8월 15일 사상에 대한 동네예보는 강수량을 다소 과대추정 하였지만 홍수위험을 충분히 알릴 수 있는 정보로 평가되었다. 본 연구는 확정론적 모형과 확률론적 강수량을 결합하여 기상예보의 불확실성을 고려한 자료기반 홍수위험도 산정방법을 제시한다.

Implementation of the Feed and Swaddle Technique as a Non-Pharmacological Strategy to Conduct Brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Very Low Birth Weight Infants

  • Yoo, Yeong Myong;Park, Ji Eun;Park, Moon Sung;Lee, Jang Hoon
    • Neonatal Medicine
    • /
    • 제28권3호
    • /
    • pp.108-115
    • /
    • 2021
  • Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a useful tool for evaluating brain injury and maturation in preterm infants and often requires sedation to acquire images of sufficient quality. Infant sedation is often associated with adverse events, despite extreme precautions. In this study, the swaddling technique was investigated as an alternative non-pharmacological strategy to obtain brain MRIs of sufficient quality. Methods: We applied the feed and swaddle technique during routine brain MRI as a quality improvement project and compared its morbidity with that of sedation in a historic age-matched group. Seventy-nine very low birth weight infants in the neonatal intensive care unit of Ajou University Hospital (Suwon, Korea) were enrolled. Thirty-two (40.5%) infants were in the feed and swaddling group, and 47 (59.5%) were in the sedation group. Results: The morbidity associated with the cardiopulmonary system (swaddling group vs. sedation group: 53.13% [n=17] vs. 63.83% [n=30], P=0.723) and central nervous system (40.63% [n=13] vs. 29.79% [n=14], P=0.217) were not significantly different between groups. The MRI failure rate was not significantly different (swaddling group vs. sedation group: 12.5% [n=4] vs. 4.3% [n=2], P=0.174). The MRI scanning time was longer in the swaddling group than in the sedation group (76.5±20.3 minutes vs. 61.5±13.6 minutes, P=0.001). Cardiopulmonary adverse events were significantly less common in the swaddling group than in the sedation group (3.13% [n=1] vs. 34.04% [n=16], P=0.002). Conclusion: The success rate of MRI was comparable between the swaddling technique and sedation. Furthermore, despite the drawback of prolonged scan time, cardiopulmonary adverse events are fewer with swaddling than with sedative agents. Therefore, swaddling can be an alternative to sedation or anesthesia when performing neonatal MRI scans.

Optimization of SWAN Wave Model to Improve the Accuracy of Winter Storm Wave Prediction in the East Sea

  • Son, Bongkyo;Do, Kideok
    • 한국해양공학회지
    • /
    • 제35권4호
    • /
    • pp.273-286
    • /
    • 2021
  • In recent years, as human casualties and property damage caused by hazardous waves have increased in the East Sea, precise wave prediction skills have become necessary. In this study, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) third-generation numerical wave model was calibrated and optimized to enhance the accuracy of winter storm wave prediction in the East Sea. We used Source Term 6 (ST6) and physical observations from a large-scale experiment conducted in Australia and compared its results to Komen's formula, a default in SWAN. As input wind data, we used Korean Meteorological Agency's (KMA's) operational meteorological model called Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts' newest 5th generation re-analysis data (ERA5), and Japanese Meteorological Agency's (JMA's) meso-scale forecasting data. We analyzed the accuracy of each model's results by comparing them to observation data. For quantitative analysis and assessment, the observed wave data for 6 locations from KMA and Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA) were used, and statistical analysis was conducted to assess model accuracy. As a result, ST6 models had a smaller root mean square error and higher correlation coefficient than the default model in significant wave height prediction. However, for peak wave period simulation, the results were incoherent among each model and location. In simulations with different wind data, the simulation using ERA5 for input wind datashowed the most accurate results overall but underestimated the wave height in predicting high wave events compared to the simulation using RDAPS and JMA meso-scale model. In addition, it showed that the spatial resolution of wind plays a more significant role in predicting high wave events. Nevertheless, the numerical model optimized in this study highlighted some limitations in predicting high waves that rise rapidly in time caused by meteorological events. This suggests that further research is necessary to enhance the accuracy of wave prediction in various climate conditions, such as extreme weather.

Machine Learning-based landslide susceptibility mapping - Inje area, South Korea

  • Chanul Choi;Le Xuan Hien;Seongcheon Kwon;Giha Lee
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
    • /
    • pp.248-248
    • /
    • 2023
  • In recent years, the number of landslides in Korea has been increasing due to extreme weather events such as localized heavy rainfall and typhoons. Landslides often occur with debris flows, land subsidence, and earthquakes. They cause significant damage to life and property. 64% of Korea's land area is made up of mountains, the government wanted to predict landslides to reduce damage. In response, the Korea Forest Service has established a 'Landslide Information System' to predict the likelihood of landslides. This system selects a total of 13 landslide factors based on past landslide events. Using the LR technique (Logistic Regression) to predict the possibility of a landslide occurrence and the accuracy is known to be 0.75. However, most of the data used for learning in the current system is on landslides that occurred from 2005 to 2011, and it does not reflect recent typhoons or heavy rain. Therefore, in this study, we will apply a total of six machine learning techniques (KNN, LR, SVM, XGB, RF, GNB) to predict the occurrence of landslides based on the data of Inje, Gangwon-do, which was recently produced by the National Institute of Forest. To predict the occurrence of landslides, it is necessary to process converting landslide events and factors data into a suitable form for machine learning techniques through ArcGIS and Python. In addition, there is a large difference in the number of data between areas where landslides occurred or not. Therefore, the prediction was performed after correcting the unbalanced data using Tomek Links and Near Miss techniques. Moreover, to control unbalanced data, a model that reflects soil properties will use to remove absolute safe areas.

  • PDF

Modeling the long-term vegetation dynamics of a backbarrier salt marsh in the Danish Wadden Sea

  • Daehyun Kim
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • 제47권2호
    • /
    • pp.49-62
    • /
    • 2023
  • Background: Over the past three decades, gradual eustatic sea-level rise has been considered a primary exogenous factor in the increased frequency of flooding and biological changes in several salt marshes. Under this paradigm, the potential importance of short-term events, such as ocean storminess, in coastal hydrology and ecology is underrepresented in the literature. In this study, a simulation was developed to evaluate the influence of wind waves driven by atmospheric oscillations on sedimentary and vegetation dynamics at the Skallingen salt marsh in southwestern Denmark. The model was built based on long-term data of mean sea level, sediment accretion, and plant species composition collected at the Skallingen salt marsh from 1933-2006. In the model, the submergence frequency (number yr-1) was estimated as a combined function of wind-driven high water level (HWL) events (> 80 cm Danish Ordnance Datum) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in surface elevation (cm yr-1). Vegetation dynamics were represented as transitions between successional stages controlled by flooding effects. Two types of simulations were performed: (1) baseline modeling, which assumed no effect of wind-driven sea-level change, and (2) experimental modeling, which considered both normal tidal activity and wind-driven sea-level change. Results: Experimental modeling successfully represented the patterns of vegetation change observed in the field. It realistically simulated a retarded or retrogressive successional state dominated by early- to mid-successional species, despite a continuous increase in surface elevation at Skallingen. This situation is believed to be caused by an increase in extreme HWL events that cannot occur without meteorological ocean storms. In contrast, baseline modeling showed progressive succession towards the predominance of late-successional species, which was not the then-current state in the marsh. Conclusions: These findings support the hypothesis that variations in the NAO index toward its positive phase have increased storminess and wind tides on the North Sea surface (especially since the 1980s). This led to an increased frequency and duration of submergence and delayed ecological succession. Researchers should therefore employ a multitemporal perspective, recognizing the importance of short-term sea-level changes nested within long-term gradual trends.

Korean Streamflow Patterns In Relation To EI NiNO/Southern Oscillation

  • Kim, Young-Oh;Lee, Hyun-Suk
    • Water Engineering Research
    • /
    • 제1권2호
    • /
    • pp.107-117
    • /
    • 2000
  • Streamflow patterns at two gauging stations in Korea, An-Dong dam and Chung-Ju dam, are statistically analyzed in relation to EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As a measure of ENSO, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is used on a monthly and seasonal basis. The traditional correlation analysis shows that cross correlations of the SOI with the seasonal streamflow are generally weak. To investigate the relationship between the extreme values of the SOI, which represent the EI Nino and La Nina events, and the corresponding streamflow patterns, the composite analysis is employed in this study. The composite analysis demonstrates that when EI Nino occurs, seasonal streamflows at An-Dong and Chung-Ju dams during the period from September of the EI Nino year to February of the following year appear to be drier than their means.

  • PDF

초고층 건축물에 적용되는 구조안전 및 재난관리 기술 (Structural safety and Disaster Management Technologies applied in High-rise Buildings)

  • 전현수;양원직;이원호
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국건축시공학회 2015년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
    • /
    • pp.89-90
    • /
    • 2015
  • Recently, Incidence of natural disasters are growing gradually. The need for a monitoring system for maintaining the structural integrity of the high-rise buildings against extreme weather events such as typhoons, earthquakes is increasing gradually. One of the most important features in the tall building is to guarantee structural safety during the structure's life time. Structural monitoring technologies might be needed to manage structural safety and to protect human life.

  • PDF

접근풍속과 건물 변동풍압력에 대한 연속파동변화법의 적용 (A Continuous Wavelet Study on Approach Wind and Building Pressure)

  • 함희정
    • 산업기술연구
    • /
    • 제25권B호
    • /
    • pp.89-97
    • /
    • 2005
  • Application of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is introduced to study wind speed and building roof pressures of flow separation region. In this study, a detailed analysis of the approach wind flow, wind-induced building pressure and the relation between the two fields was carried out using the POD technique and CWT analysis. The results show potential of the application of POD and CWT in characterization of spatio-temporal and spectral properties of the approach wind and its induced dynamic pressure events. Some of findings resulting from the application of this analysis can be summarized as follows: (1) The POD first principal coordinate of the roof pressure in the separated shear layer is closely correlated with the longitudinal component of oncoming flow. (2) The CWT analysis suggests that the extreme peak pressure in the separated shear layer is due to condensed large-scale eddy motions.

  • PDF

MERGERS, COSMIC RAYS, AND NONTHERMAL PROCESSES IN CLUSTERS OF GALAXIES

  • SARAZIN CRAIG L.
    • 천문학회지
    • /
    • 제37권5호
    • /
    • pp.433-438
    • /
    • 2004
  • Clusters of galaxies generally form by the gravitational merger of smaller clusters and groups. Major cluster mergers are the most energetic events in the Universe since the Big Bang. The basic properties of cluster mergers and their effects are discussed. Mergers drive shocks into the intracluster gas, and these shocks heat the intracluster gas. As a result of the impulsive heating and compression associated with mergers, there is a large transient increase in the X-ray luminosities and temperatures of merging clusters. These merger boost can affect X-ray surveys of clusters and their cosmological interpretation. Similar boosts occur in the strong lensing cross-sections and Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect in merging clusters. Merger shock and turbulence associated with mergers should also (re)accelerate nonthermal relativistic particles. As a result of particle acceleration in shocks and turbulent acceleration following mergers, clusters of galaxies should contain very large populations of relativistic electrons and ions. Observations and models for the radio, extreme ultraviolet, hard X-ray, and gamma-ray emission from nonthermal particles accelerated in these shocks will also be described. Gamma-ray observations with GLAST seem particularly promising.