• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.113-113
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• 2023

기후변화로 인한 온도 상승이 대기 중 수분량을 증가시키면서 극한 강우가 전 세계적으로 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 이에 따라 대규모 홍수 피해가 지속적으로 초래되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 현상에 대응하기 위한 노력으로, 대기 연직 기둥 내 총 수분량을 나타내는 총가강수량(Total Precipitable Water, TPW)과 극한 강우사상(Extreme Precipitation, EP) 간의 연관성이 강우지속기간에 따라 어떻게 변하는지 분석하였다. 관측 및 재해석(reanalysis) 데이터를 활용하여 동시극한지수(Concurrent Extremes Index, CEI, 0~1, 1에 가까울수록 강한 연결)로 두 변수 간의 정량적 연결 강도를 살펴보았다. 분석 결과, CEI의 지속 시간에 따른 변동 경향성은 지역에 따라 상당한 차이를 보였다. 지중해와 중앙아시아와 같은 대부분의 중위도 지역에서는 강우의 지속 기간이 길어질수록 CEI 값이 급격히 감소하였다. 그러나 한반도를 포함한 동아시아 지역은 중위도임에도 불구하고 긴 지속 기간의 강우 사상에서도 높은 수준의 CEI 값을 유지하였다. 이러한 동아시아 지역의 경향성은 열대지역과 매우 유사하게 나타났으며, 이는 동아시아 지역의 극한 강우 증가가 기후변화의 직접적인 영향을 받을 수 있음을 시사한다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.18-24
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• 2023

Severe natural disasters and man-made attacks such as terrorism are causing unprecedented disruptions in power systems. Due to rapid climate change and the aging of energy infrastructure, both the frequency of failure and the level of damage are expected to increase. Resilience is a concept proposed to respond to extreme disaster events that have a low probability of occurrence but cause enormous damage and is defined as the ability of a system to recover to its original function after a disaster. Resilience is a comprehensive indicator that can include system performance before and after a disaster and focuses on preparing for all possible disaster scenarios and having quick and efficient recovery actions after an incident. Various studies have been conducted to evaluate resilience, but studies on economic damage considering the duration of a power outage are scarce. In this study, we propose an optimal algorithm that can identify failures after an extreme disaster and restore the load on the distribution system through emergency distributed power generation input and system reconfiguration. After that, the cost of power outage damage is analyzed by applying VoLL and CDF according to each restoration strategy.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.217-220
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• 2024

Predicting earthquake occurrences accurately is challenging, and preparing all buildings with seismic design for such random events is a difficult task. Analyzing building features to predict potential damage and reinforcing vulnerabilities based on this analysis can minimize damages even in buildings without seismic design. Therefore, research analyzing the efficiency of building damage prediction models is essential. In this paper, we compare the accuracy of earthquake damage prediction models using machine learning classification algorithms, including Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, LightGBM, and CatBoost, utilizing data from buildings damaged during the 2015 Nepal earthquake.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.251-263
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• 2015

This study suggested a novel approach of estimating the optimal probability density function (OPDF) of the annual maximum rainfall time series (AMRT) combining the L-moment ratio diagram and the geographical information system. This study also reported several interesting geographical characteristics of the AMRT in Korea. To achieve this purpose, this study determined the OPDF of the AMRT with the duration of 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hours using the method of L-moment ratio diagram for each of the 67 rain gages in Korea. Then, a map with the Thiessen polygons of the 67 rain gages colored differently according the different type of the OPDF, was produced to analyze the spatial trend of the OPDF. In addition, this study produced the color maps which show the fitness of a given probability density function to represent the AMRT. The study found that (1) both L-skewness and L-kurtosis of the AMRT have clear geographical trends, which means that the extreme rainfall events are highly influenced by geography; (2) the impact of the altitude on these two rainfall statistics is greater for the mountaneous region than for the non-mountaneous region. In the mountaneous region, the areas with higher altitude are more likely to experience the less-frequent and strong rainfall events than the areas with lower altitude; (3) The most representative OPDFs of Korea except for the Southern edge are Generalized Extreme Value distribution and the Generalized Logistic distribution. The AMRT of southern edge of Korea was best represented by the Generalized Pareto distribution.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.275-290
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• 2012

In this study, we have developed an optimal time distribution model through extraction of peaks over threshold (POT) series. The median values for annual maximum rainfall dataset, which are obtained from the magnetic recording (MMR) and the automatic weather system(AWS) data at Seoul meteorological observatory, were used as the POT criteria. We also suggested the improved methodology for the time distribution of extreme rainfall compared to Huff method, which is widely used for time distributions of design rainfall. The Huff method did not consider changing in the shape of time distribution for each rainfall durations and rainfall criteria as total amount of rainfall for each rainfall events. This study have suggested an extracting methodology for rainfall events in each quartile based on interquartile range (IQR) matrix and selection for the mode quartile storm to determine the ranking cosidering weighting factors on minutely observation data. Finally, the optimal time distribution model in each rainfall duration was derived considering both data size and characteristics of distribution using kernel density function in extracted dimensionless unit rainfall hyetograph.

• Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.71-82
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• 2012

This research was carried out to estimate annual erosion and retreat rates by using datum-point and to identify the characteristics and causes of seasonal variations of sea-cliff slope in Pado-ri, Taean-gun. In the result, the erosion and retreat rates of sea-cliff were increased from spring to summer. The rates were increased rapidly between August and October, caused by the effects of extreme weather events such as severe rainstorms and typhoons, etc. Since then, the erosion and retreat rates of sea-cliff were decreased gradually, but the rates were increased again in winter due to the storm surge and mechanical weathering resulting from the repeated freezing and thawing actions of bed rocks. The factors that affect erosion and retreat rates of sea-cliff include the number of days with antecedent participation and daily maximum wave height. In particular, it turned out that the erosion is accelerated by strong wave energy during storm surges and typhoons. The annual erosion and retreat rates of study area for the past two years(from May 2010 to May 2012) were approximately 44~60cm/yr in condition of differences in geomorphological and geological characteristics at each point. These erosion and retreat rates were found to be higher than results of previous researches. This is caused by coastal erosion forces strengthened by extreme weather events. The erosion and retreat process of sea-cliff in the study area is composed by denudation of onshore areas in addition to marine erosion(wave energy).

• Explosives and Blasting
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.1-12
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• 2011

Progressive collapse analyses of high-rise buildings subjected to abnormal loading such as fires, impacts, earthquakes, typhoon, bomb blasts etc. are intended. However it is difficult to perform collapse experiments of the real scale building to determine the capacity of the structure under an extreme loading events. In this study, collapse behavior of a 15 story RC structure building loaded by external explosion pressures were simulated using Extreme Loading Structures (ELS) software. The standoff distance between the RC building and explosives of 1500 kg was 1, 2, 5, 10, and 15 meters. The explosive demolition analysis techniques based on removal of partial support structures following blast scenario was adapted to investigate the transition process of progressive collapse-local damage.

• KIEAE Journal
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.13-19
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• 2012

The Earth's surface temperature still continues to rise, and extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves, drought, and precipitation have been repeated every year. It is reported that international communities attribute the main cause of the Earth's surface temperature rise to the excessive use of the fossil energy. Recently, the damage caused by climate change is getting worse, and the place where we live is suffering the most. Cities have been continuously growing not only meeting the basic functions of human habitation, work and leisure but also being places for various economic and social activities. But Cities, the victims of climate change, have grown only considering human needs and convenience rather than predicting their physical and ecological systems(Albedo effects, urban microclimate, resources and energy of the circulatory system, etc). In other words, the cities offer the cause of the problems of climate change, and even worsen the extreme weather phenomena without coping with them. Therefore, it is urgent priorities to protect the climate, to prevent the causes of the extreme weather phenomena and to enhance the adaptive capacity for the worse weather events. This study is to derive the concept for adapting to these climate changes which can make cities escape from exposure to these climate change impacts and make themselves safer places to live. And it analyzes some European cities and present developing models to implement planning methods. In this study, the concept of the climate adaptive cities will be suggested to prepare the adaptation measures for urban planners, and climate change adaptation models will be presented by analyzing some preliminary cases.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.17-22
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• 2008

Including heat wave, Climate change caused 150,000 casualty in 2000 and heat waves are meteorological events that pose a serious threat to human health. A heat wave is defined as "a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather". There is a need for the prevention of health effects due to weather and climate extremes. This study intends to propose the necessity of Response System to correspond to extreme heat. And this research focused on Cooling Center manual of facility and maintenance for extreme heat disaster. It would be useful to be planned based on community and to be taken a role as an E.O.C.(Emergency Operating Center). As a conclusion elderly watching system and the requirements regional cooling center facility was proposed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.655-669
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• 2018

In this study, we developed a hybrid forecasting model based on a four-parameter distribution which allows a simultaneous season-ahead forecasting for both seasonal rainfall and sub-daily rainfall in Han-River and Geum-River basins. The proposed model is mainly utilized a set of time-varying predictors and the associated model parameters were estimated within a Bayesian nonstationary rainfall frequency framework. The hybrid forecasting model was validated through an cross-validatory experiment using the recent rainfall events during 2014~2017 in both basins. The seasonal precipitation results showed a good agreement with the observations, which is about 86.3% and 98.9% in Han-River basin and Geum-River basin, respectively. Similarly, for the extreme rainfalls at sub-daily scale, the results showed a good correspondence between the observed and simulated rainfalls with a range of 65.9~99.7%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed model could be used to better consider climate variability at multiple time scales.