• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected value

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The Multi-Period Opportunity Cost Model to Evaluate an Option Value based on a Deferral Option (연기옵션을 고려한 옵션가치의 일반적 기회비용 모델)

  • Kim, Gyu-Tai
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.184-192
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    • 2005
  • In recent research there has been intense interest in understanding how real option valuation (ROV) approaches might usefully complement conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques. However, investment decision makers in a real world have been worried about adopting the ROV approaches mainly because of difficulty in technically understanding the theory of the ROV approaches as indicated by many researchers. With this difficulty in mind, we propose the opportunity cost model as another discrete-time model to value a deferral option. The main advantage of observing a real options value in terms of the opportunity cost concept is to provide a technique for practitioners to estimate a wide range of real options values without sticking to a financial option modelling. The fundamental ground for developing the opportunity cost model proposed in this paper lies in the work of dissecting the structure of the real options value into three categories: capital gain, expected opportunity loss, and expected opportunity gain. At the end of the paper, we will present a short illustrative example to demonstrate the applicability of the model.

Determinants of Users' Perceived Value on Mobile Contents Service (모바일 콘텐츠 서비스에 대한 인지된 사용자 가치 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Cheol;Kim, Jong-Uk
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.221-245
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    • 2008
  • Recently, mobile internet technologies are enabling the possibility of radically new computing services which can share information and communicate with others on the move. In this situation, prior studies have attempted to identify of what factors make people use mobile internet. However, prior researches focused on investigating the factors affecting users' adoption to Mobile Internet. In order to offer beneficial materials to mobile internet companies, we investigated important factors to increase mobile users' value from the viewpoints of customer. In particular, this study was progressed how characteristics of mobile contents affect users' intrinsic attributes and how perceived users' network effects affect users' value in the mobile computing environments. To empirically test proposed hypotheses, we have analyzed 285 survey data gathering from mobile internet users and verified hypotheses by using SEM (structural equation modeling). Based on the results of this study, we found that content accessibility and content quality have significant impacts on users' intrinsic attributes such as perceived usefulness and perceived enjoyment. In addition, this study also revealed that perceived usefulness and perceived enjoyment were positively related to users' emotional value. Moreover, this study found that perceived users' network effects could affect users' monetary value by mediating expected benefits. Based on our findings, we can understand that this perspective can provide a deeper understanding of the mobile users' value adoption by bridging the gap between mobile internet studies and actual practice.

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Citizens' Perceptions of Living Labs for a Better Living Environment: Perspectives of Millennials and Generation Z

  • Yoon-Cheong CHO
    • Journal of Wellbeing Management and Applied Psychology
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aims to explore the citizens' perceptions of living labs in the context of enhancing the living environment. Specifically, it employs quantitative research to investigate the perspectives of Millennials and Generation Z. This study proposed research questions to examine how the impacts of citizen-driven management, social factors, locally-driven management, open innovation operation, economic value, and environmental value influence the overall attitude toward living labs. Additionally, this study investigated the effects of overall attitudes on intention to participate in living labs and expected satisfaction towards living labs. Research design, data and methodology: This study employed an online survey conducted by a well-known research organization. Factor and regression analysis were utilized for data analysis. Results: The results revealed significant effects of citizen-driven management, social factors, economic value, and environmental value on overall attitude, with social factors exhibiting the highest effect size on overall attitude. Additionally, significant effects of overall attitude on intention and expected satisfaction were observed. Conclusions: The findings suggest which aspects of living labs should be fostered for the development of residents, the local economy, and citizens' quality of life, particularly with consideration of the perspectives of Millennials and Generation Z, who play a crucial role in utilizing a diverse array of ICT tools.

On Exponential Utility Maximization

  • Chung, Kun-Jen
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.66-71
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    • 1988
  • Let B be present value of some sequence. This paper concerns the maximization of the expected utility of the present value B when the utility function is exponential.

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Development of Expected Loss Capability Index Using Reflected Normal Loss Function (역정규 손실함수를 이용한 기대손실 능력지수의 개발)

  • Chun, Dong-Jin;Chung, Young-Bae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2017
  • Process quality control, which prevents problems and risks that may occur in products and processes, has been recognized as an important issue, and SPC techniques have been used for this purpose. Process Capability Index (PCI) is useful Statistical Process Control (SPC) tool that is measure of process diagnostic and assessment tools widely use in industrial field. It has advantage of easy to calculate and easy to use in the field. $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$ are traditional PCIs. These traditional $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$ were used only as a measure of process capability, taking into account the quality variance or the bias of the process mean. These are not given information about the characteristic value does not match the target value of the process and this has the disadvantage that it is difficult to assess the economic losses that may arise in the enterprise. Studies of this process capability index by many scholars actively for supplement of its disadvantage. These studies to evaluate the capability of situation of various field has presented a new process capability index. $C_{pm}$ is considers both the process variation and the process deviation from target value. And $C_{pm}{^+}$ is considers economic loss for the process deviation from target value. In this paper we developed an improved Expected Loss Capability Index using Reflected Normal Loss Function of Spring. This has the advantage that it is easy to realistically reflect the loss when the specification is asymmetric around the target value. And check the correlation between existing traditional process capability index ($C_{pk}$) and new one. Finally, we propose the criteria for classification about developed process capability index.

The Influence of Self-Efficacy for Hydrogen Electric Vehicles on Trust (수소전기차에 대한 자기효능감이 신뢰에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Hyeok-Ra;Kim, Seon-Myung;Kim, Heaseon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.414-423
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    • 2021
  • This study establishes a conceptual model that can clarify the causal relationship between self-efficacy, expected value and perceived risk, and trust for hydrogen Electric vehicles, which are expected to play an important role in activating hydrogen electric vehicles, and verify this through empirical research. As a specific research goal, first, the concepts of self-efficacy, perceived value, perceived risk, and trust were defined conceptually and operationally, centering on prior research. Second, a research model was presented and verified through an empirical analysis in order to confirm the influence relationship between the self-efficacy, perceived value, perceived risk, and trust derived through prior research. As a result of the study, it was found that self-efficacy had a significant effect on perceived value and trust. Also, perceived value and perceived risk were found to have a significant effect on perceived trust.

A Study on the Effects of Perceived Characteristics on Continuous Usage Intention in Smartphone Application (스마트폰 애플리케이션 사용자의 지각된 특성이 지속사용의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yoo-Jae;Choi, Jeong-Il
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.41-60
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    • 2011
  • Due to the explosive growth of smartphone use, new type and format of business opportunity is being created. Despite the creation of added value using smartphone is very important, the past study on smart phone has been mainly focused on its functions and specifications. This study is intended to identify the factors that influence continuance usage intention of smartphone and to analyze the relationship between such factors and the expected confirmation. satisfaction, and usage intention. The result of this empirical study indicates that the perceived enjoyfulness and quality significantly affect users' expected confirmation and satisfaction, and social influence also affects users' continuance usage intention. Thus, it implies users place a high value on enjoyfulness and quality in using smartphone application and on social influence in choosing specific application. Finally this paper provides a detailed account of how customers accept smartphone application and their perceived characteristics affect the usage intention.

Evaluating the quality of baseball pitch using PITCHf/x (PITCHf/x를 이용한 투구의 질 평가)

  • Park, Sungmin;Jang, Woncheol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.171-184
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    • 2020
  • Major League Baseball (MLB) records and releases the trajectory data for every baseball pitch, called the PITCHf/x, using three high-speed cameras installed in every stadium. In a previous study, the quality of the pitch was assessed as the expected number of bases yielded using PITCHf/x data. However, the number of bases yielded does not always lead to baseball scores, or runs. In this paper, we assess the quality of a pitch by combining baseball analytics metric Run Expectancy and Run Value using a Random Forests model. We compare the quality of pitches evaluated with Run Value to the quality of pitches evaluated with the expected number of bases yielded.

Probabilistic Approach to Government Employee Pension System (공무원연금제도에 대한 확률적 고찰)

  • Kim, Joo-Yoo;Song, Seong-Joo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.557-572
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    • 2009
  • This article examines the financial soundness of the government employee pension system(GEPS). We use a model that simplifies the existing GEPS considering survival probability distribution of the life of employees. Two approaches were selected for the research: One is the expected net value of pension for an individual employee and the other is the default probability of the system from Monte-carlo simulation. The outcome reveals following three possibilities. First of all, the individual expected net value presents unfairness between the retiree's premium and the benefit he/she receives. Secondly, the Monte-carlo simulation suggests that the default is highly likely to happen in less than 30 years. Thirdly, the governmental reserve and subsidy for GEPS should be required to a certain degree in order to alleviate the probability of default less than 5 percent for the next 30 years.

Can the Skewed Student-t Distribution Assumption Provide Accurate Estimates of Value-at-Risk?

  • Kang, Sang-Hoon;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.153-186
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    • 2007
  • It is well known that the distributional properties of financial asset returns exhibit fatter-tails and skewer-mean than the assumption of normal distribution. The correct assumption of return distribution might improve the estimated performance of the Value-at-Risk(VaR) models in financial markets. In this paper, we estimate and compare the VaR performance using the RiskMetrics, GARCH and FIGARCH models based on the normal and skewed-Student-t distributions in two daily returns of the Korean Composite Stock Index(KOSPI) and Korean Won-US Dollar(KRW-USD) exchange rate. We also perform the expected shortfall to assess the size of expected loss in terms of the estimation of the empirical failure rate. From the results of empirical VaR analysis, it is found that the presence of long memory in the volatility of sample returns is not an important in estimating an accurate VaR performance. However, it is more important to consider a model with skewed-Student-t distribution innovation in determining better VaR. In short, the appropriate assumption of return distribution provides more accurate VaR models for the portfolio managers and investors.

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