• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Performance

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Evaluation of bias and uncertainty in snow depth reanalysis data over South Korea (한반도 적설심 재분석자료의 오차 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Jeon, Hyunho;Lee, Seulchan;Lee, Yangwon;Kim, Jinsoo;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.9
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    • pp.543-551
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    • 2023
  • Snow is an essential climate factor that affects the climate system and surface energy balance, and it also has a crucial role in water balance by providing solid water stored during the winter for spring runoff and groundwater recharge. In this study, statistical analysis of Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS), Modern.-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and ERA5-Land snow depth data were used to evaluate the applicability in South Korea. The statistical analysis between the Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) ground observation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the reanalysis data showed that LDAPS and ERA5-Land were highly correlated with a correlation coefficient of more than 0.69, but LDAPS showed a large error with an RMSE of 0.79 m. In the case of MERRA-2, the correlation coefficient was lower at 0.17 because the constant value was estimated continuously for some periods, which did not adequately simulate the increase and decrease trend between data. The statistical analysis of LDAPS and ASOS showed high and low performance in the nearby Gangwon Province, where the average snowfall is relatively high, and in the southern region, where the average snowfall is low, respectively. Finally, the error variance between the four independent snow depth data used in this study was calculated through triple collocation (TC), and a merged snow depth data was produced through weighting factors. The reanalyzed data showed the highest error variance in the order of LDAPS, MERRA-2, and ERA5-Land, and LDAPS was given a lower weighting factor due to its higher error variance. In addition, the spatial distribution of ERA5-Land snow depth data showed less variability, so the TC-merged snow depth data showed a similar spatial distribution to MERRA-2, which has a low spatial resolution. Considering the correlation, error, and uncertainty of the data, the ERA5-Land data is suitable for snow-related analysis in South Korea. In addition, it is expected that LDAPS data, which is highly correlated with other data but tends to be overestimated, can be actively utilized for high-resolution representation of regional and climatic diversity if appropriate corrections are performed.

Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

Design of a Dual Band-pass Filter Using Fork-type Open Stubs and SIR Structure (포크 형태의 개방형 스터브 및 SIR 구조를 이용한 이중대역 대역통과 여파기의 설계)

  • Tae-Hyeon Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.252-264
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes a design of a dual-band band-pass filter that integrates a λg/2 open SIR structure, a transmission line, and a fork-type structure with symmetric and asymmetric open stubs. To obtain the dual-band effect, the proposed filter uses the SIR structure and adjusts the impedance ratio of the SIR structure. Therefore, the position of the harmonics of the filter is shifted through the adjustment of the impedance ratio, and this can obtain a double-band effect. In order to obtain the dual-band characteristics, the dual-band effect is obtained by inserting a open stub between the SIR structures with the SIR structure divided in half. In addition, the second frequency response is obtained by adjusting the length of the open symmetrical stub in the fork-shaped structure. The asymmetrical open stub in the fork form achieves optimum bandwidth by adjusting the length. Therefore, the first center frequency of the proposed band-pass filter is 5.896 GHz and the bandwidth is 13.6 %. At this time, the measurement results are 0.13 dB and 33.6 dB. The second center frequency is 5.906 GHz and the bandwidth is 13.6 %. At this time, the measurement results are 0.15 dB and 19.8 dB. The reason is that when the impedance ratio (Δ) is higher than 1, the position of the harmonic is shifted to a lower frequency band. However, if the impedance ratio (Δ) is lowered by one step, the position of harmonics will move to a higher frequency band. The function of the filter designed using these characteristics can be obtained from the measurement result. The proposed band-pass filter has no coupling loss and no via energy concentration loss because there is no coupling structure of input/output and no via hole. Therefore, system integration is possible due to its excellent performance, and it is expected that dedicated short-range communication (DSRC) system applications used in traffic communication systems will be possible.

Study on Nozzle Type and Proper Discharge Pressure of Sprayer for Vehicle Disinfecting System (차량소독장치용 노즐형태와 분무기의 적정토출압력에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Young-Il;Chang, Dong-Il;Kim, Jeong-Chul;Park, Dong-Suk;Lee, Seung-Joo;Kang, Beom-Sun;Kim, Suk;Gutierrez, Winson M.;Lee, Tae-Hoon;Choi, Chung-Heon;Chang, Hong-Hee
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2016
  • The current disinfection method of vehicles being applied in South Korea has various shortcomings. So, the epidemic has generated continuously at livestock farms. It is very important to develop an effective disinfection system for reduction of the epidemic. And various basic data is required for this development. Therefore, this study was performed to identify the nozzle type and proper discharge pressure of sprayers. The experiment was conducted from January 10, 2012 until February 28, 2012. All the performance measurement experiments were repeated five times. The subjects of experiment were the A, B and C company's products. The sprayed capacity, angle of spray and the covering area ratio were measured for each product. As a result, the sprayed capacity, angle of spray and the covering area ratio were increased as the discharge pressure of the sprayer was increased. In conclusion, the conical shaped of the nozzle is considered more appropriate than V-shaped, and the proper discharge pressure is expected to be at least 20kg/㎠.

An Empirical Investigation of Relationship Between Interdependence and Conflict in Co-marketing Alliance (공동마케팅제휴에 있어 상호의존성과 갈등의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Yi, Ho Taek;Cho, Young Wook;Kim, Ju Young
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.79-102
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    • 2011
  • Researchers in channel dyads have devoted much attention to relationship between interdependence (i.e. interdependence enymmetry and total interdependence) and conflict that promote channel performance. In social science, in spite of the inconsistent results in marketing practice, there are two contradictory theories explain the relationship between interdependence and conflict - bilateral deterrence theory and conflict spiral theory. The authors apply these theories to co-marketing alliance situation in terms that this relationship is also incorporated both company's dependence, either from one company's perspective or each partner about its respective dependence. Using survey data and archival data from 181 companies enlisted in a telecommunication membership program, the authors find out the relationship between interdependence and conflict as well as investigate the antecedents of interdependence - transaction age, transaction frequency, the numbers of alliance partner, and co-marketing alliance specific assets according to previous researches. Using PLS analysis, the authors demonstrate that, with increasing total interdependence in a telecommunication membership program, two co-marketing partners' conflict level is increased in accord with the author's conflict spiral theory predictions. As expected, higher interdependence asymmetry has negative value to level of conflict even though this result is not statistically significant. Other findings can be summarized as follows. In the perspective of telecommunication company, transaction age, transaction frequency, and co-marketing alliance specific assets have influence on its dependence on a partner as independent variables. To the contrary, in a partner's perspective, transaction frequency, co-marketing alliance specific assets and the numbers of alliance partner have significantly impact on its dependence on a telecommunication company. In direct effect analysis, it is shown that transaction age, frequency and co-marketing alliance specific assets have direct influence on conflict. This results suggest that it is more useful for a telecommunication company to select a co-marketing partner which is frequently used by customers and earned high rates of mileage. In addition, the results show that dependence of a telecommunication company on a co-marketing partner is more significantly effected to co-marketing alliance conflict than partner's one. It provide an effective conflict management strategy to a telecommunication company for controling customer's usage rate or having the co-marketing partner deposit high level of alliance specific investment (i.e. mileage). To a co-marketing partner of telecommunication company, it is required control the percentage of co-marketing sales in total sales revenue or seek various co-marketing partners in order for co-marketing conflict management. The research implications, limitation and future research of these results are discussed.

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The Effects of The Distinction in Family Business on CEO Succession Types: A Behavioral Agency Theory Perspective (행동대리인 이론관점에서 가족기업 특성이 승계에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ki-Hyung;Moon, Chul-Woo;Kim, Sang-kyun;Lee, Byung-Hee
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-39
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    • 2017
  • The first generation of the business that had been founded in 1960~1970s faces the situation to consider the succession of the family business developed by devotion of their whole lives in the critical timing to the next generation. In the process of selecting the party of family business succession, it is required to consider a variety of succession types including smooth transfer to the other family member or the employee of the company, selling the company, or hiring external specialist. Foreign countries acknowledge the importance of the succession in the family owned company to perform multiple studies on the influential factors to the succession, distinction, and types of family business succession; and they utilize the results for the related policy development and the support of family owned business succession. However, few studies have been conducted on the succession of the domestic family owned business and majority of them are related to the types of succession. Considering its share and influential power in the domestic economy, it is necessary to develop the guideline and the policies to solve many issues on the succession of the family owned business by systemic studies. Hence, the impact of the main characteristics in the family owned business on the types of its succession was analyzed in this study focusing on five domains of Socioemtional Wealth (SEW) in view of Behavioral Agency Theory by Gomez-Mejia et al. (2007) using the data from 540 family owned small-to-medium sized businesses so as to analyze the issues on their business succession. Upon the empirical analysis results, it was confirmed that they were influenced to the selection of succession type by family succession > internal employee succession > external succession, for the variables of social contribution which were non-financial characteristics, internal employee succession > family succession > external succession for the intellectual properties, and family succession > external succession for the management participation of the family. The distinction of social contribution were influenced the most to the selection of the succession types. Financial factors, business performance, and R&D investment variables were not significantly influenced to their selection of the succession types. In case of simultaneous management, the family succession rate was high and it showed the control effect to strengthen selecting family owned business with R&D investment, social contribution, and company history variables. The behavioral agency theory used in this study was confirmed with high explanation power on the family owned business succession. The family owned business showed the tendency to maintain SEW, and non-financial factors such as accumulated know-how and social contribution based on the long term history were significantly affected to the succession in the small-to-medium sized family owned businesses, unlike general large sized listed companies. The results of this study are expected to be helpful practically for the succession of the family owned business and to suggest the guideline for the development of governmental policy.

The Study on Improvement of the Digital Transformation of Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Industries through Foreign Countries (주요국 정책을 통한 중소 제조기업의 디지털 전환 추진 방향 모색)

  • An, Jung-in
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2022
  • As the 4th industrial revolution progresses, foreign countries are promoting smart manufacturing innovation through digital transformation as a priority task early on to secure a competitive edge in the manufacturing industry. In response, the Korean government is also promoting a policy to enhance the competitiveness of small and medium-sized manufacturing companies by promoting digital transformation in the corporate sector to meet the global trend of the 4th industrial revolution era. Manufacturing powerhouses such as Germany and Japan see manufacturing as a key sector in digital transformation and are leading related policies, while emerging countries such as China are also promoting manufacturing innovation strategies such as building digital infrastructure and creating a digital innovation ecosystem. Korea is promoting the 'Korean-style smart factory dissemination and expansion strategy' by transforming Germany's manufacturing innovation strategy for smart factory supply to suit the domestic situation. However, the policy to supply smart factories so far has been conducted with support from individual companies under the leadership of the government, and most of the smart factories are at the basic level, and it is evaluated that there are limitations such as the lack of manpower to operate smart factories. In addition, while the current policy focuses on expanding the supply of smart factories in SMEs, it is necessary to establish a smart manufacturing system through linkages between large and small businesses in order to achieve the original goal of establishing a smart manufacturing system. Therefore, it can be said that from the standpoint of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), who are consumers of smart factories, it can be said that the digital transformation policy can achieve the expected results only when appropriate incentives are provided for the introduction of smart factories in a situation where management resources such as funds, technology, and human resources are lacking. In addition, it is judged that the uncertainty of the performance of digital investment always exists, and as long as large and small companies are maintained as an ecosystem of delivery and subcontracting, there is very little incentive for small and medium-sized manufacturing companies to voluntarily invest in or advance digital transformation. Therefore, the digital transformation policy of small and medium-sized manufacturing companies in the future has practical significance in that it suggests that there is a need to seek ways to attract SMEs' digital-related voluntary investment.

A Study on the Social Venture Startup Phenomenon Using the Grounded Theory Approach (근거이론 접근법을 이용한 소셜벤처 창업 현상에 관한 고찰)

  • Seol, Byung Moon;Kim, Young Lag
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2023
  • The social venture start-up phenomenon is found from the perspectives of social enterprise and for-profit enterprise. This study aims to fundamentally explore the start-up phenomenon of social ventures from these two perspectives. Considering the lack of prior research that researched both social and commercial perspectives at the same time, this paper analyzed using grounded theory approach of Strauss & Corbin(1998), an inductive research method that analyzes based on prior research and interview data. In order to collect data for this study, eight corporate representatives currently operating social ventures were interviewed and data and phenomena were analyzed. This progressed to a theoretical saturation where no additional information was derived. The analysis results of this study using the grounded theory approach are as follows. As a result of open coding and axial coding, 147 concepts and 70 subcategories were derived, and 18 categories were derived through the final abstraction process. In the selective coding, 'expansion of social venture entry in the social domain' and 'expansion of social function of for-profit companies' were selected as key categories, and a story line was formed around this. In this study, we saw that it is necessary to conduct academic research and analysis on the competitive factors required for companies that pursue the values of two conflicting relationships, such as social ventures, to survive with competitiveness. In practice, concepts such as collaboration with for-profit companies, value combination, entrepreneurship competency and performance improvement, social value execution competency reinforcement, communication strategy, for-profit enterprise value investment, and entrepreneur management competency were derived. This study explains the social venture phenomenon for social enterprises, commercial enterprises, and entrepreneurs who want to enter the social venture field. It is expected to provide the implications necessary for successful social venture startups.

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Studies on Xylooligosaccharide Analysis Method Standardization using HPLC-UVD in Health Functional Food (건강기능식품에서 HPLC-UVD를 이용한 자일로올리고당 시험법의 표준화 연구)

  • Se-Yun Lee;Hee-Sun Jeong;Kyu-Heon Kim;Mi-Young Lee;Jung-Ho Choi;Jeong-Sun Ahn;Kwang-Il Kwon;Hye-Young Lee
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.72-82
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    • 2024
  • This study aimed to develop a scientifically and systematically standardized xylooligosaccharide analytical method that can be applied to products with various formulations. The analysis method was conducted using HPLC with Cadenza C18 column, involving pre-column derivatization with 1-phenyl-3-methyl-5-pyrazoline (PMP) and UV detection at 254 nm. The xylooligosaccharide content was analyzed by converting xylooligosaccharide into xylose through acid hydrolysis. The pre-treated methods were compared and evaluated by varying sonication time, acid hydrolysis time, and concentration. Optimal equipment conditions were achieved with a mobile phase consisting of 20 mM potassium phosphate buffer (pH 6)-acetonitrile (78:22, v/v) through isocratic elution at a flow rate of 0.5 mL/min (254 nm). Furthermore, we validated the advanced standardized analysis method to support the suitability of the proposed analytical procedure such as specificity, linearity, detection limits (LOD), quantitative limits (LOQ), accuracy, and precision. The standardized analysis method is now in use for monitoring relevant health-functional food products available in the market. Our results have demonstrated that the standardized analysis method is expected to enhance the reliability of quality control for healthy functional foods containing xylooligosaccharide.

Radiation Dose-escalation Trial for Glioblastomas with 3D-conformal Radiotherapy (3차원 입체조형치료에 의한 아교모세포종의 방사선 선량증가 연구)

  • Cho, Jae-Ho;Lee, Chang-Geol;Kim, Kyoung-Ju;Bak, Jin-Ho;Lee, Se-Byeoung;Cho, Sam-Ju;Shim, Su-Jung;Yoon, Dok-Hyun;Chang, Jong-Hee;Kim, Tae-Gon;Kim, Dong-Suk;Suh, Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: To investigate the effects of radiation dose-escalation on the treatment outcome, complications and the other prognostic variables for glioblastoma patients treated with 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Materials and Methods: Between Jan 1997 and July 2002, a total of 75 patients with histologically proven diagnosis of glioblastoma were analyzed. The patients who had a Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) of 60 or higher, and received at least 50 Gy of radiation to the tumor bed were eligible. All the patients were divided into two arms; Arm 1, the high-dose group was enrolled prospectively, and Arm 2, the low-dose group served as a retrospective control. Arm 1 patients received $63\~70$ Gy (Median 66 Gy, fraction size $1.8\~2$ Gy) with 3D-conformal radiotherapy, and Arm 2 received 59.4 Gy or less (Median 59.4 Gy, fraction size 1.8 Gy) with 2D-conventional radiotherapy. The Gross Tumor Volume (GTV) was defined by the surgical margin and the residual gross tumor on a contrast enhanced MRI. Surrounding edema was not included in the Clinical Target Volume (CTV) in Arm 1, so as to reduce the risk of late radiation associated complications; whereas as in Arm 2 it was included. The overall survival and progression free survival times were calculated from the date of surgery using the Kaplan-Meier method. The time to progression was measured with serial neurologic examinations and MRI or CT scans after RT completion. Acute and late toxicities were evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group neurotoxicity scores. Results: During the relatively short follow up period of 14 months, the median overall survival and progression free survival times were $15{\pm}1.65$ and $11{\pm}0.95$ months, respectively. The was a significantly longer survival time for the Arm 1 patients compared to those in Arm 2 (p=0.028). For Arm 1 patients, the median survival and progression free survival times were $21{\pm}5.03$ and $12{\pm}1.59$ months, respectively, while for Arm 2 patients they were $14{\pm}0.94$ and $10{\pm}1.63$ months, respectively. Especially in terms of the 2-year survival rate, the high-dose group showed a much better survival time than the low-dose group; $44.7\%$ versus $19.2\%$. Upon univariate analyses, age, performance status, location of tumor, extent of surgery, tumor volume and radiation dose group were significant factors for survival. Multivariate analyses confirmed that the impact of radiation dose on survival was independent of age, performance status, extent of surgery and target volume. During the follow-up period, complications related directly with radiation, such as radionecrosis, has not been identified. Conclusion: Using 3D-conformal radiotherapy, which is able to reduce the radiation dose to normal tissues compared to 2D-conventional treatment, up to 70 Gy of radiation could be delivered to the GTV without significant toxicity. As an approach to intensify local treatment, the radiation dose escalation through 3D-CRT can be expected to increase the overall and progression free survival times for patients with glioblastomas.