• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Market Price

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A Deterministic Model for Optimal Pricing Decisions with Price-Driven Substitution (가격차에 의해 발생하는 수요대체효과를 고려한 정태적 최적가격결정 모형 수립)

  • Kim, Sang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2008
  • Market segmentation is a key strategic factor in increasing the expected profits, especially in the practice of revenue management. A manufacturing firm should manage both manufacturing quantities and pricing decisions over its segmented markets to maximize the expected profits, setting different price for each different segment. Also, market segments should be kept separate in order to prevent demand leakages between different market segments. In fact, even though the markets for different products are firmly segmented, it is not easy to keep separate segmentation because many products might be substitutable by customer buying behavior. That is, customers respond to price changes by purchasing other market's products instead of purchasing the originally requested products, which causes demand substitution effect ; This kind of substitution is referred to as price-driven substitution. Therefore, decisions on optimal prices should take into account the differences in customers' valuation of the different products. We consider a deterministic model for deciding optimal prices in the presence of price-driven substitution, and we compare both symmetrical-and asymmetrical-type demand substitutions between two segmented markets. The objective of this study is to develop analytical and numerical models to examine the impact of price-driven substitution on the optimal price levels and the total expected profits.

Stock Returns and Market Making with Inventory

  • Park, Seyoung;Jang, Bong-Gyu
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.1-4
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    • 2012
  • We study optimal trading strategy of a market maker with stock inventory. Following Avellaneda and Stoikov (2008), we assume the stock price follows a normal distribution. However, we take a constant expected rate of the stock return and assume that the stock volatility is an inverse function of the stock price level. We show that the optimal bid-ask spread of the market maker is wider for a higher expected rate of stock returns.

PRICE ESTIMATION VIA BAYESIAN FILTERING AND OPTIMAL BID-ASK PRICES FOR MARKET MAKERS

  • Hyungbin Park;Junsu Park
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.61 no.5
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    • pp.875-898
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    • 2024
  • This study estimates the true price of an asset and finds the optimal bid/ask prices for market makers. We provide a novel state-space model based on the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck volatility and the Heston models with Gaussian noise, where the traded price and volume are available, but the true price is not observable. An objective of this study is to use Bayesian filtering to estimate the posterior distribution of the true price, given the traded price and volume. Because the posterior density is intractable, we employ the guided particle filtering algorithm, with which adaptive rejection metropolis sampling is used to generate samples from the density function of an unknown distribution. Given a simulated sample path, the posterior expectation of the true price outperforms the traded price in estimating the true price in terms of both the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error metrics. Another objective is to determine the optimal bid/ask prices for a market maker. The profit-and-loss of the market maker is the difference between the true price and its bid/ask prices multiplied by the traded volume or bid/ask size of the market maker. The market maker maximizes the expected utility of the PnL under the posterior distribution. We numerically calculate the optimal bid/ask prices using the Monte Carlo method, finding that its spread widens as the market maker becomes more risk-averse, and the bid/ask size and the level of uncertainty increase.

Option Pricing with Bounded Expected Loss under Variance-Gamma Processes

  • Song, Seong-Joo;Song, Jong-Woo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.575-589
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    • 2010
  • Exponential L$\acute{e}$evy models have become popular in modeling price processes recently in mathematical finance. Although it is a relatively simple extension of the geometric Brownian motion, it makes the market incomplete so that the option price is not uniquely determined. As a trial to find an appropriate price for an option, we suppose a situation where a hedger wants to initially invest as little as possible, but wants to have the expected squared loss at the end not exceeding a certain constant. For this, we assume that the underlying price process follows a variance-gamma model and it converges to a geometric Brownian motion as its quadratic variation converges to a constant. In the limit, we use the mean-variance approach to find the asymptotic minimum investment with the expected squared loss bounded. Some numerical results are also provided.

Methodology for Estimating the HTS Cable Market Price (초전도케이블 시장진입 가격 산정 방법론 고찰)

  • Kim Jong-Yul;Lee Seung-Ryul;Yoon Jae-Young
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.536-541
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    • 2004
  • As power demand increases gradually, the call for underground transmission system increases. But it is very difficult and high in cost to construct new ducts and/or tunnels for power cables in metropolitan areas. HTS (High Temperature Superconducting) cable has the several useful characteristics such as increased power density, stronger magnetic fields and/or reduced losses. Therefore HTS cable can allow more power to be moved in existing ducts, which means very large economical and environmental benefits. In these days, companies world-wide have conducted researches on HTS cable. A development project for a 22.9kV class HTS cable is proceeding at a research center and university in Korea. In this paper, we investigate the expected price of HTS cable to have a merit in viewpoint of economic aspect. First, life-cycle cost of conventional cable is calculated and based on this, the expected price of HTS cable is evaluated, which HTS cable is competitive against conventional cable.

A Study on Market Power in Futures Distribution (선물 유통시장에서 시장지배력에 관한 연구)

  • Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This paper aims to investigate a profit maximizing incentive of foreign traders in distributing the KOSPI 200 Futures. Such an incentive may induce unsophisticated retail traders to suffer loss from speculative trading. Since Korean government increased the entry barriers of the market to protect unsophisticated traders, the market size has been decreasing while the proportion of the contract held by foreign traders has been increasing. These on going changes make the market imperfectly competitive, where a profit maximization incentives of foreign traders are expected to grow. In this paper, we attempt to find any evidence of such behavior, thereby providing implications regarding market policy and market efficiency. Research design, data, and methodology - According to Kyle(1985), an informed trader exploits his/her monopoly power optimally in a dynamic context so that he/she makes positive profit, where he/she could conceal his/her trading utilizing noise trading as camouflage. We apply the KOSPI 200 Futures market to the Kyle's model: foreign traders who take into account the effect of his/her trading to maximize expected profits as an informed trader, retail investors as noise traders, and financial institutions as market makers. To find any evidence of monopolistic behavior, we test the variants of trading volume and price data of the KOSPI 200 Futures over the period of 2009 and 2017. Results - First, we find that the price of the KOSPI 200 Futures are more volatile than the price of underlying asset. Second, we find that monopolistic foreign trader's trading order flows are consistent with exploiting his/her monopoly power to maximize profit. Finally, we find that retail investors' trading order flows are inversely consistent with maximizing profit, that is, uninformed retail investors suffer loss continuously in speculative trading against informed traders. Conclusions - Our results show that the quantity of strategic order flows may have a large effect on the price, therefore, resulting the market inefficiency. The results also imply that, in implementing regulations, the depth of the market must be considered to maintain market liquidity, and suggesting interesting research topics regarding the market structure.

A Study on the Construction of Fisheries Producer Price Index (수산물 생산자물가지수 산정방식에 관한 고찰;-연근해 어획물을 중심으로-)

  • 이광진
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 1996
  • As an important factor of capitalism economics, price of commodities represents a certain country's economic index. For having correct price policy, there should be an appropriate mechanism to make and use systematic statistical data on price. Price statistics are made by indexes and price indexes are categorized into producer price index(PPI) and consumer price index(CPI). The Bank of Korea is publishing producer price index every year, but the producer price index contains some problems. These include as follows : (a) the impractical selection of fisheries products sample (b) uncorrect measure of aquatic products weights (c) investigating sample places. This study try to substitute producer price index of aquatic products and change construction of fisheries producer price index with experimental research on representative fisheries, weight of each fisheries, and suitability of investigating sample places. It is possible to improve practical fisheries producer price index with the results of this research. The findings are as follow. (a) It will be helpful for the government to make the fisheries price policy. (b) It can be used to understand trends of accurate price and price increase of aquatic products, and it's possible to compare with it other industrial indexes including the mining, agricultural, and manufacturing industry and understand relative price movement. (c) When free sales systems of fisheries products as expected, it will be helpful to analyze price movement of producing fisheries cooperatives, producing fisheries market and consuming fisheries market, analysis of market, and formation and consideration of budget. (d) It can be an important index to determine labor wage.

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Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets (주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

A Study on the Influence of Macroeconomic Variables of the ADF Test Method Using Public Big Data on the Real Estate Market (공영 빅데이터를 활용한 ADF 검정법의 거시경제 변수가 부동산시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Dae-Sik
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.499-506
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    • 2017
  • Consideration of influential factors through division of capital market sector and interest rate sector to find and resolve the problems in current housing market and leasing market will become an important index to prepare measures for stabilization of housing sales market and housing lease market. Furthermore, a guideline will be provide you with preliminary data using Big Data to prepare for sudden price fluctuation because expected economic crisis, stock market situation, and uncertain future financial crisis can be predicted which may help anticipate real estate price index such as housing sales price index and housing lease price index.

A study on the MVNO Wholesale Price in Competitive Communication Service Market (경쟁적인 통신서비스 시장에서 MVNO 도매대가 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Sawng, Yeong-Wha;Bae, Khee-Su;Jeon, Heung-Joo
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.217-231
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    • 2012
  • In the past, companies should make enormous facility investment and acquire a right to do business in order to join communication markets, but now they can do business without important facilities, such as communication networks. Such a movement to ease regulations about companies which want to newly join the communication industry is expected not only to change a competition frame of the mobile communication market but also to greatly affect the entire communication industry. Through this study aiming to look into a way to calculate a reasonable wholesale price related to the government's introduction of the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) system, I came up with a following result. I applied the operating profit percentage and the ratio of operating gain to cost to the cost plus model and retail minus model, respectively, to calculate the wholesale price and found that when I calculated with the cost plus model applying the operating profit percentage, I could get the highest wholesale price. On the other hand, I got the lowest wholesale price with the retail minus model by applying the operating profit percentage. Division of expenses and calculation of profit percentage are important factors in calculating the wholesale price and such results are expected to help accurate calculation of the MVNO wholesale price.