Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society (대한수학회지)

Korean Mathematical Society (대한수학회)
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PRICE ESTIMATION VIA BAYESIAN FILTERING AND OPTIMAL BID-ASK PRICES FOR MARKET MAKERS

  • Hyungbin Park (Research Institute of Mathematics and Department of Mathematical Sciences Seoul National University) ;
  • Junsu Park (Optiver)
  • Received : 2023.01.31
  • Accepted : 2024.02.14
  • Published : 2024.09.01
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Abstract

This study estimates the true price of an asset and finds the optimal bid/ask prices for market makers. We provide a novel state-space model based on the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck volatility and the Heston models with Gaussian noise, where the traded price and volume are available, but the true price is not observable. An objective of this study is to use Bayesian filtering to estimate the posterior distribution of the true price, given the traded price and volume. Because the posterior density is intractable, we employ the guided particle filtering algorithm, with which adaptive rejection metropolis sampling is used to generate samples from the density function of an unknown distribution. Given a simulated sample path, the posterior expectation of the true price outperforms the traded price in estimating the true price in terms of both the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error metrics. Another objective is to determine the optimal bid/ask prices for a market maker. The profit-and-loss of the market maker is the difference between the true price and its bid/ask prices multiplied by the traded volume or bid/ask size of the market maker. The market maker maximizes the expected utility of the PnL under the posterior distribution. We numerically calculate the optimal bid/ask prices using the Monte Carlo method, finding that its spread widens as the market maker becomes more risk-averse, and the bid/ask size and the level of uncertainty increase.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Hyungbin Park is supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grants funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (No. 2021R1C1C1011675 and No. 2022R1A5A6000840). Financial support from the Institute for Research in Finance and Economics of Seoul National University is gratefully acknowledged.

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