• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.26 no.6
• /
• pp.1019-1032
• /
• 2013

The accurate prediction of future mortality is an important issue due to recent rapid increases in life expectancy. An accurate estimation and prediction of mortality is important to future welfare policies. The optimal selection of a mortality model is important to estimate and predict mortality; however, the period of time series data used is also an important issue. It is essential to understand that the time series data for mortality is short in Korea and the data before 1982 is incomplete. This paper divides the time series of Korean mortality into two sets to compare the parameter estimates of the LC model and LC model with a cohort effect by the period of data used. A modeling and prediction of the mortality index and cohort effect index as well as the evaluation of future life expectancy is conducted. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the future prediction of mortality.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.41-48
• /
• 1999

The fatigue life tests were performed in strain control with triangular and hole-time wave-forms at $650^{\circ}C$. The fatigue lifes were investigated according to waveform examining damage mechanisms, which could be used to predict the fatigue life and estimate the remaining life. The results obtained are as follows; The fatigue lifes were in order of the fast-fast>the fast-slow>the slow-fast in the triangular waveforms, and the fatigue lifes in slow-fast waveforms got shorter in the hold-time waveforms. The damage mechanisms of the fracture surfaces were transgranular fracture in the fast-fast, the fast-slow waveforms and intergranular fracture in the slow-fast waveform.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.221-227
• /
• 2007

This paper introduces an on-line particle-filtering-based framework for failure prognosis in nonlinear, non-Gaussian systems. This framework uses a nonlinear state-space model of the plant(with unknown time-varying parameters) and a particle filtering(PF) algorithm to estimate the probability density function(pdf) of the state in real-time. The state pdf estimate is then used to predict the evolution in time of the fault indicator, obtaining as a result the pdf of the remaining useful life(RUL) for the faulty subsystem. This approach provides information about the precision and accuracy of long-term predictions, RUL expectations, and 95% confidence intervals for the condition under study. Data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 planetary carrier plate are used to validate the proposed methodology.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.75-85
• /
• 2008

In this paper, we compared domestic with foreign pilot lamps installed on the instrument board or electronic modules (car audio, air-conditional system, etc.) of an automotive vehicle by an accelerated life test in order to estimate the life of domestic pilot lamps. An accelerated life test method was developed and the relation of the life and voltage stress was analyzed. The main results are as follows; i) $B_{10}$ life of pilot lamp is above 5,000 hours, vehicle travel time for 10 years. ii) the life of domestic pilot lamp is longer than that of foreign thing. iii) the life distribution of domestic pilot lamp is wider than that of foreign thing. iv) it is possible to promote import replacement of automobile pilot lamp.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.270-275
• /
• 2015

Purpose : UHMWPE (Ultra-high-molecular-weight-polyethylene) is one of the most widely used material in knife protection clothes because of high strength, elasticity, and light weight. The purpose of this study is to develop the accelerated life test method and predict the lifetime for the knife protection fabric composed by UHMWPE. Methods : In this study, degradation characteristics of UHMWPE fibers and knife protection fabric for cut resistance were evaluated under the hydrolysis and photo-degradation conditions. It was found out that the degradation rate of retained tensile strength was more significant in the photo-degradation than hydrolysis. Therefore, the failure time was determined as the time that the retained tensile strength in photo-degradation is less than 50%. Considering an acceleration factor for irradiance and exposure time, the lifetime was predicted from the calculated failure time. Results : As a result of the accelerated life test, the $B_{10}$ lifetime of knife protection fabric composed by UHMWPE fibers is estimated as 2.8 years for a 90% statistical confidence level. Conclusion: Since the lifetime is predicted by the view-point of radiant exposure in this study, there is a possibility that the estimated lifetime may differ from the actual lifetime. However, it is considered as an useful methodology to estimate the long-term lifetime of knife protection fabrics.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.18-25
• /
• 2003

This paper explains the process design for improving tool life in the conventional hot forging process. The thermal load and the thermal softening are happened by contact between the hotter billet and the cooler tools in hot forging process. Tool life decreases considerably due to the softening of the surface layer of a tool was caused by a high thermal load and long contact time between the tools and the billet. Also, tool life is to a large extent limited by wear, heat crack and plastic deformation in hot forging process. Above all, the main factors which affect die accuracy and tool life we wear and the plastic deformation of a tool. The newly developed techniques for predicting tool life are applied to estimate the production quantity for a spindle component and these techniques can be applied to improve the tool life in hot forging process.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
• /
• 2011.06a
• /
• pp.281-288
• /
• 2011

Hydraulic hose assemblies deliver a fluid power in various oil pressure equipments such as construction machinery, automobile, aircraft, industrial machinery, machine tools, and machinery for ships, or they are used as pipes in oil pressure circuit. However, as the traditional measure for estimating life under the influence of various external factors incurs hardship in terms of time and expenses, it is essential to take accelerated life test by choosing the factor that suits the usage condition of the test object. The objective of the this study is to propose a acceleration model that takes both temperature and pressure without flexing condition into consideration. The life that is calculated by the equation for evaluating life and the test data show similar slopes as a result of comparing and analyzing the equation for evaluating life that is obtained in this research and the test data, which illustrates that they estimate life similarly, and the proposed equation is proved to be an accelerated life equation that presents the test results.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.65-83
• /
• 1993

The purpose of this study is estimate limits of Korean life expectancy at birth by 'Gompertz growth curse Model', 'Cause-Elimination Model' and Multidimensional models of Senescencee and Mortality'. Data used in Gompertz curve were obtained from all life tables published from 1905 to 1990 in Korea, and life expectancies at birth of eighteen groups were selected at five-year interval in consideration of time-series changes. Data used in Cause-Elimination Model are 'Cause of Death statistics in 1991' published in 1992 by National Bureau of Statistics of Korea and 'life table of 1989' published in 1990 by National Bureau of Statistics, Economic Planning Board of Korea. The materials are all classifiable death data, 119, 253 cases of male and 82, 420 cases of female, which is from 1991 Causes of Death statistics. The cases of death analyzed belong to one of 8 categories; i.e., Infectious and Parasitic Diseases(001-139; with notation of Infectious Diseases), Malignant Neoplasms(140-208), Hypertensive Diseases(401-405), Ischemic Heart Dieases and Diseases of Pulmonary Circulation and Other Forms of Heart Diseases(410-429;with notation of Heart Disease), Cerebrovascular Diseases(430-438), Chronic Liver Diseases and Cirrhosis(571; with notation of Liver Diseases), Injury and Poisoning(800-999) and all other disease. Data used in 'Multidimensional models of senescence and mortality' were life table of 1989 published by National Bureau of statistics, Economic Planning Board of Korea and life table of 1970, 1978-79, 1983, 1985 and 1987. The major findings may be summarised as follows: 1. Estimate equations of Gompertz growth curve using life expectancy at birth during the 1905-1990 period are as the following. Male : y = 88.047697 $\times$ $0.199690^{0.903381x}$ Female : y = 95.632828 $\times$ $0.199690^{0.903381x}$ Limits of life expectancy at birth, which were estimated by Gompertz growth curve, are 88.05 for male and 95.63 for female. 2. The effect on life expectancy at birth eliminationg all causes death is 14.04 years(for male) and 10.86 years(for female). Astonishingly, eliminating the malignant neoplasms increase life expectancy at birth by 2.85 years for male 2.03 years for female in 1991. In table 8 we show the effect on life expectancy at birth of separately eliminating each of the 8 categorical causes of death. The theoretical limit to life expectancy by Cause-Elimination Model is 80.96 for male and 85.82 for female. 3. If the same rate of delay [0.376 year(male), 0.435 year(femable) per calendar year] continued, then life expectancy at birth would reach 74.82(male) years and 84, 10(female) years in 2010. With 14.04-years(male) and 10.86-years(female) effect attributable in 2010 would be 88.86 years(male) and 94.96(femable) years. 4. 'Multidimensional models of senescence and death' permits calculations of the value of the attribution coefficient (B), percent of loss per year of physiologic function. The results of Ro and B during the 1970-1989 period are listed in table 9. Estimate of limit to Korean life expectancy at birth by 'Multidimensional models of senescence and death' is 99.47 years for male and 104.74 years for female in 1989.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.60 no.11
• /
• pp.2176-2181
• /
• 2011

This paper estimates the life cycle cost(LCC) of a propulsion control system using the maintenance information in the high speed train(KTX-1). Life cycle costing is one of the most effective approaches for the cost analysis of long-life systems such as the KTX-1. Until now, most life cycle cost of the system has been studied as a whole system viewpoint. But in case of railway industry, LCC studies are needed on the subsystem like a propulsion control system because subsystems are developed continuously localization. This paper proposes the life cycle cost model which fitted to estimate life cycle cost (LCC) using maintenance information manual. As a result, LCC on propulsion control system increased moderately expect for periodical time when major parts are replaced at the same time. Results will be reflected in the development of domestic products.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.62 no.2
• /
• pp.288-292
• /
• 2013

This paper presents the result of life-cycle cost (LCC) estimation for domestic products propulsion control system (motor block unit) of KTX-1 considering periodic maintenance. Life cycle costing is one of the most effective approaches for the cost analysis of long-life systems such as the KTX-1. Life cycle costing includes the cost of concept design, development, manufacture, operation, maintenance and disposal. To estimate LCC for domestic products motor block unit, it was analyzed physical breakdown structure (PBS) on motor unit in view of maintenance cost and unit cost etc. As a results, life cycle cost on motor block unit increased moderately expect for periodical time when major parts are replaced at the same time. hereafter this results will be reflected in the domestic products being developed.