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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2013.26.6.1019

Comparison of Mortality Estimate and Prediction by the Period of Time Series Data Used  

Jung, Kyunam (Statistics Korea)
Baek, Jeeseon (Statistical Research Institute, Statistics Korea)
Kim, Donguk (Department of Statistics, Sungkyunkwan University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.26, no.6, 2013 , pp. 1019-1032 More about this Journal
Abstract
The accurate prediction of future mortality is an important issue due to recent rapid increases in life expectancy. An accurate estimation and prediction of mortality is important to future welfare policies. The optimal selection of a mortality model is important to estimate and predict mortality; however, the period of time series data used is also an important issue. It is essential to understand that the time series data for mortality is short in Korea and the data before 1982 is incomplete. This paper divides the time series of Korean mortality into two sets to compare the parameter estimates of the LC model and LC model with a cohort effect by the period of data used. A modeling and prediction of the mortality index and cohort effect index as well as the evaluation of future life expectancy is conducted. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the future prediction of mortality.
Keywords
Period of time series data used; LC model; LC model with cohort effect; mortality; life expectancy;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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