• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimate life-time

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Comparative genetic analysis of frequentist and Bayesian approach for reproduction, production and life time traits showing favourable association of age at first calving in Tharparkar cattle

  • Nistha Yadav;Sabyasachi Mukherjee;Anupama Mukherjee
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.1806-1820
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The present study was aimed primarily for estimating various genetic parameters (heritability, genetic correlations) of reproduction (age at first calving [AFC], first service period [FSP]); production (first lactation milk, solid-not fat, and fat yield) and lifetime traits (lifetime milk yield, productive life [PL], herd life [HL]) in Tharparkar cattle to check the association of reproduction traits with lifetime traits through two different methods (Frequentist and Bayesian) for comparative purpose. Methods: Animal breeding data of Tharparkar cattle (n = 964) collected from Livestock farm unit of ICAR-NDRI Karnal for the period 1990 through 2019 were analyzed using a Frequentist least squares maximum likelihood method (LSML; Harvey, 1990) and a multi-trait Bayesian-Gibbs sampler approach (MTGSAM) for genetic correlations estimation of all the traits. Estimated breeding values of sires was obtained by BLUP and Bayesian analysis for the production traits. Results: Heritability estimates of most of the traits were medium to high with the LSML (0.20±0.44 to 0.49±0.71) and Bayesian approach (0.24±0.009 to 0.61±0.017), respectively. However, more reliable estimates were obtained using the Bayesian technique. A higher heritability estimate was obtained for AFC (0.61±0.017) followed by first lactation fat yield, first lactation solid-not fat yield, FSP, first lactation milk yield (FLMY), PL (0.60±0.013, 0.60±0.006, 0.57±0.024, 0.57±0.020, 0.42±0.025); while a lower estimate for HL (0.38±0.034) by MTGSAM approach. Genetic and phenotypic correlations were negative for AFC-PL, AFC-HL, FSP-PL, and FSP-HL (-0.59±0.19, -0.59±0.24, -0.38±0.101 and -0.34±0.076) by the multi-trait Bayesian analysis. Conclusion: Breed and traits of economic importance are important for selection decisions to ensure genetic gain in cattle breeding programs. Favourable genetic and phenotypic correlations of AFC with production and lifetime traits compared to that of FSP indicated better scope of AFC for indirect selection of life-time traits at an early age. This also indicated that the present Tharparkar cattle herd had sufficient genetic diversity through the selection of AFC for the improvement of first lactation production and lifetime traits.

Development of techniques for evaluating residual life of water pipes based on pipe deterioration evaluation results (관로 노후도 평가결과를 이용한 상수도 관로의 잔존수명 평가 기법의 개발)

  • Park, Suwan;Kim, Kimin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.10
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    • pp.673-679
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    • 2017
  • In this paper a method for estimating the 'service life' and 'residual life' of a water pipe based on the Water Pipe Network Performance Evaluation(WPNPE) results of Water Supply Technical Diagnosis was developed for efficient maintenance of water pipes. The residual life of a pipe was defined as the difference between the service life and elapsed time since installation. The service life was defined as the time when a pipe reaches the reference score for determining deteriorated pipes that was used in the WPNPE. The pipe evaluation criteria and deterioration scores used in the WPNPE for the case study area were considered as independent variables in the multiple regression model for estimating the service life and residual life of the pipes in the area. To estimate the service life for the pipes the reference scores for determining deteriorated pipes were used as the values of the variables that represent the deterioration scores in the constructed regression models. Subsequently, the statistics of the service life and residual life of the pipes in the case study area were presented and analyzed in comparison with the service life defined by the Local Public Enterprizes Act.

A Program Development of Life Prediction Simulation for Multi-Surface Cracks on the Finite Plate (무한 평면체에 존재하는 복수 표면균열의 성장에 대한 수명예측용 시뮬레이션 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 황남성;서창민;남승훈
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 1997
  • The social demand urges us to use some equipments and structures in high temperature environment. By this occasion, the necessity of studying the fatigue crack growth is an important aspect of new materials. However, the present situation is rarely to accumulate the fatigue data. Especially, 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel have been increased to be used under the severe condition of high temperature. And so, the fatigue estimation of those materials is important and appropriate. Fatigue tests have been carried out to examine the crack initiation, growth behaviour for the small fatigue crack of 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel at room temperature and 538^{\circ}C$. The remote measurement system which has many merits of checking and saving the image for detailed examination was applied to closely detect the crack length. Generally, the fatigue crack initiated in the form of multiple cracks and grew each other. And then it coalesced to become a major crack. The major crack governed the rest of the fatigue life. In the growing process, each peripheral cracks interact and grow for a certain period. After then, it coalesced and fractured. On the basis of the above experimental data for the small crack, a simulation program was developed to predict the residual life time and to estimate the integrity of machine elements and structures. At the same time, the simulation was extended to 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel. The simulation results have shown a good agreement to those of the experimental ones for both materials of 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel with small cracks. The NASCRAC has applied to compare the fatigue life with the experimental results. And so, it can be said that the simulation program is valuable tools to the industrial fields.

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Establishment of an analytical method for butaphosphan (BTP), a stress-attenuating agent, and its application in the preliminary pharmacokinetic evaluation of residues in olive flounder Paralichthys olivaceus

  • Lee, Ji-Hoon;Bae, Jun Sung;Lee, Chae Won;Yang, Chan Yeong;Choi, Ji-Sung;Choi, Sang-Hoon;Kang, Yue-Jai;Park, Kwan Ha
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.10.1-10.10
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    • 2020
  • Background: Butaphosphan (BTP) has recently been introduced into the Korean aquaculture sector as a stressattenuating agent. In this study, a sensitive chemical analytical method was established for the detection of BTP in the olive flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) tissues. Methods: Utilizing a method employing liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), detection sensitivity, specificity, and precision were satisfactorily established. Temporal changes in the BTP plasma and muscle concentrations were assessed after a single intramuscular injection of BTP (50 and 150 mg/kg) to the olive flounder maintained at 13 ℃ or 22 ℃. Results: High BTP plasma levels were achieved immediately after the injection, and the drug was rapidly eliminated. Additionally, plasma BTP levels were markedly dependent on the elimination rate, which, in turn, seemed dependent on the water temperature, with the drug elimination half-life and mean residence time significantly shorter at 22 ℃ than 13 ℃. Overall, muscle BTP levels were markedly lower than the plasma levels. Notably, muscle levels were not influenced by water temperatures. Muscle BTP concentrations were used to estimate the necessary withdrawal period for drugs used in food fish, with BTP levels maintained far below the possible hazardous limit. Conclusions: In conclusion, the established LC-MS/MS method can be used for BTP residue detection with high sensitivity and reproducibility.

Relationships among behavioral beliefs, past behaviors, attitudes and behavioral intentions toward healthy menu selection

  • Kim, Heewon;Kim, Youngshin;Choi, Hyung-Min;Ham, Sunny
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.348-354
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a serious concern worldwide, for which the restaurant industry holds partial responsibility. This study was conducted to estimate restaurant consumers' intention to select healthy menu items and to examine the relationships among behavioral beliefs, past behaviors, attitudes and behavioral intentions, which are known to be major determinants of consumer behaviors. SUBJECTS/METHODS: An online, self-administered survey was distributed for data collection. The study sample consisted of customers who reported having visited casual dining restaurants in the last three months at the time of the survey. Structural equation modeling was used to verify the fit of the proposed research model. RESULTS: Structural equation modeling revealed that the proposed model supports the sequential, mediated (indirect) relationships among behavioral beliefs, past behaviors, attitudes and behavioral intentions toward healthy menu selection. CONCLUSION: This study contributes to the available literature regarding obesity by adding past behaviors, one of the most influential variables involved in prediction of future behaviors of consumers, to the TPB model, enabling a better understanding of restaurant consumers' rational decision process regarding healthy menu choices. The results of this study provide practical implications for restaurant practitioners and government agencies regarding ways to promote healthy menus.

Lifetime estimation for current sensor by accelerated life test (가속수명시험을 통한 전류센서의 수명 예측)

  • Kim, Je-Min;Choi, Sung-Soon;Ma, Byung-Jin;Lee, Kwan-Hun;Song, Byeong-Suk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.257-258
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    • 2008
  • Hall-type current sensors have been widely used in many fields such as elevator and train system. To estimate lifetime of hall-type current sensors, an accelerated life test with real-time monitoring system simultaneously was designed and performed in high temperature environment with three different temperatures. From the experimental results, activation energy was about 0.9 eV, and acceleration factor was about 450 based on Arrhenius model. As a results, $B_{10}$ lifetime of hall-type current sensor is estimated to be 65,460 hours.

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Study on the Reliability Evaluation Method of Components when Operating in Different Environments (이종 환경에서 운용되는 부품의 신뢰도 평가 방법 연구)

  • Hwang, Jeong Taek;Kim, Jong Hak;Jeon, Ju Yeon;Han, Jae Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2017
  • This paper is to introduce the main modeling assumptions and data structures associated with right-censored data to describe the successful methodological ideas for analyzing such a field-failure-data when components operating in different environments. The Kaplan - Meier method is the most popular method used for survival analysis. Together with the log-rank test, it may provide us with an opportunity to estimate survival probabilities and to compare survival between groups. An important advantage of the Kaplan - Meier curve is that the method can take into account some types of censored data, particularly right-censoring. The above non-parametric method was used to verify the equality of parts life used in different environments. After that, we performed the life distribution analysis using the parametric method. We simulated data from three distributions: exponential, normal, and Weibull. This allowed us to compare the results of the estimates to the known true values and to quantify the reliability indices. Here we used the Akaike information criterion to find a suitable life time distribution. If the Akaike information criterion is the smallest, the best model of failure data is presented. In this paper, no-nparametrics and parametrics methods are analyzed using R program which is a popular statistical program.

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Estimating Inundation Areas over Time (행위자 기반 모델링을 활용한 시간에 따른 침수 지역 예상)

  • Kim, Byungil;Shin, Sha Chul;Jung, Jaehoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 2016
  • Emergency and evacuation planning is critical to reduce potential loss of life from flooding. In order to develop evacuation plans, emergency managers and decision makers require estimates of probable inundation areas and times of inundation. In this paper, we present an agent-based modeling approach that incorporates in a hydrodynamic model to estimate both of these properties. A case study is conducted modeling the failure of a dam located in Andong, South Korea. We estimate flood travel times for Manning's roughness coefficients and discharge using a coupling of the continuity equation and Manning's equation. Using the output from the hydrodynamic model and the flood travel times, the agent-based model produces flood inundation maps at each time interval. The model estimates that for two-thirds of the Andong region the time of inundation is estimated to be slightly less than three minutes. The results of this study can be used to in the development of emergency and evacuation planning for the region.

Measurement of Effective Half-life Using Dual Time I-131 Whole Body Scan in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Treated by High Dose Therapy (고용량 방사성옥소 치료를 받은 갑상선분화암 환자에서 Dual Time I-131 Whole Body Scan을 이용한 유효반감기의 측정)

  • Yoon, Jae Sik;Lee, Jae Gon;Lee, Ki Hyun;Lim, Kwang Seok;Choi, Hak Ki;Lee, Sang Mi
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.98-103
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The effective half life of I-131 is useful to calculate radiation dose, period of hospitalization, and exposure dose of surrounding people from patient. However, it is difficult to measure. This study estimates the effective half life in whole body and thyroid in using of value of residual radioactivity obtained from the early and delay images of Dual time I-131 whole body scan. Also, the correlations between the effective half life and serum creatinine, GFR, and administration dose were investigated in this study. Materials and Methods: The targets were 50 patients administration high dose of I-131 from February to August in 2013, having normal range of serum creatinine and over $30{\mu}IU/mL$ of TSH levels. After administration radioactive I-131, the early scan in the 3rd day and the delay scan in the 5-6th days were performed. To measure the residual radioactivity in the whole body and thyroid, ROI was set and then background radioactivity was corrected to estimate. The effective half life was estimated by calculating the ratio of measured values between the early and delay images. To compare the effective half lives of the whole body and thyroid, it was analyzed by Independent t-test, and each correlation of the effective half life, GFR, serum creatinine, and the dose of administration were analyzed by calculating the pearson's correlation coefficient. All of the analysis were determined to be statistically significant when P<0.05. Results: The effective half life of the whole body was $17.06{\pm}5.50$ hours and of the thyroid was $17.22{\pm}5.41$ hours. The two effective half life did not show significant difference (P=0.887). As the value of GFR was increased, the effective half life of whole body (r=-0.407, P=0.003) and of thyroid (r=-0.473, P=0.001) were significantly decreased; as the value of serum creatinine was increased, the effective half life of whole body (r=0.309, P=0.029) and of thyroid (r=0.371, P=0.008) were significantly increased. In the administration dose, effective half life did not have correlations. Conclusion: The effective half life of I-131 of patients treated for their thyroids were estimated only by using the images of Dual time I-131 whole body scan. Also, the correlations with the effective life, GFR, and serum creatinine were examined. This study might be utilized for a study on optimization for the period of hospitalization of patients treated by high dose of I-131 and on evaluation for internal absorbed dose of MIRD schema in application of the effective half life.

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The trajectory of depressive symptoms among the oldest-old: Focusing on gender difference (초고령 노인의 우울증상 궤적: 성별차이를 중심으로)

  • Jeon, Hae-Sook
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: Although the number of the oldest-old is rapidly increasing due to longevity, very little is known about the trajectory of depressive symptoms(DS) and its related factors among the oldest-old. Much less is known about whether the trajectory of DS differs by gender among the oldest-old. The current study aims (1) to estimate the trajectory of DS and (2) to examine whether the trajectory differs by gender among the oldest-old. Methods: Sample consists of 296 persons aged 85 and over who participated in the Korean Welfare Panel Study data. Data were processed using the latent growth curve modeling to estimate the trajectory and multi-group SEM to examine gender difference. Results: This study showed that (1) the trajectory of DS was increasing over time and (2) the DS trajectory of males was much more rapidly increasing than that of females, indicating male oldest old are more vulnerable to depression than female oldest old in later life. Conclusions: Given the fact that females are known to be more vulnerable to depression, the findings are counterintuitive to the previous knowledge on depression and gender difference. Based on the findings, implications for intervention and education related to DS among the oldest-old.