• Title/Summary/Keyword: Epidemic outbreak

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Outbreak and Spread of Bacterial Canker in Kiwifruit (참다래 궤양병의 격발 및 확산)

  • 고영진;차병진;정희정;이동현
    • Korean Journal Plant Pathology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.68-72
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    • 1994
  • Bacterial canker of kiwifruit recently outbroke throughout the southcoast of Korea, the major production areas of kiwifruit. Some orchards were destroyed because of severe damage by the epidemics of the bacterial canker, especially in Jeju-si and Bukjeju-kun, Jeju and Goheung-kun and Wando-kun, Chonnam. The bacterial canker, which has been occurred in Jeju from the mid 1980s, was first observed in Haenam-kun, Chonnam in 1991. The disease outbroken throughout the southcoast of Korea caused extremely severe damages and the diseased areas are increasing continuously. The possibility that the bacterial canker was introduced from Japan into Jeju is high, although the path of the epidemic is still not clear. And then the bacterial canker may spread from Jeju to Haenam and/or Wando, from which the disease may spread to the southcoast of Chonnam and the westcoast of Kyungnam in Korea.

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The Impact of Social disaster by COVID-19 on Consumer Price Index: Focused on Culture, Sports and Tourism (COVID-19가 유발한 사회재난이 소비자물가지수에 미치는 영향: 문화체육관광분야를 중점으로)

  • Lee, Da-Hye;Chang, In-Hong
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.130-138
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    • 2021
  • The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on human life. The World Bank group (WBG) has stated that 2020 is the worst year since World War II for economic growth. An epidemic of an infectious disease such as COVID-19 is classified as a "social disaster" by law. The social disaster caused by COVID-19 puts certain industries, occupations and vulnerable groups at risk of exclusion and isolation. This paper intends to examine the fluctuations in the consumer price index in the cultural, sports and tourism sector before and after the onset of COVID-19. In addition, it predicts the consumer price index by sector until December 2021 and reveals its implications.

UTILIZING FIXED POINT METHODS IN MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

  • Dasunaidu Kuna;Kumara Swamy Kalla;Sumati Kumari Panda
    • Nonlinear Functional Analysis and Applications
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.473-495
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    • 2023
  • The use of mathematical modelling in the study of epidemiological disorders continues to grow substantially. In order to better support global policy initiatives and explain the possible consequence of an outbreak, mathematical models were constructed to forecast how epidemic illnesses spread. In this paper, fractional derivatives and (${\varpi}$ - F𝓒)-contractions are used to explore the existence and uniqueness solutions of the novel coronavirus-19 model.

A Space-Time Cluster of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in South Korea, 2010~2011 (구제역의 시.공간 군집 분석 - 2010~2011 한국에서 발생한 구제역을 사례로 -)

  • Pak, Son Il;Bae, Sun Hak
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.464-472
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    • 2012
  • To assess the space-time clustering of FMD(Foot-and-Mouth Disease) epidemic occurred in Korea between November 2010 to April 2011, geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial analysis technique was used. Farm address and geographic data obtained from a commercial portal site were integrated into GIS software, which we used to map out the color-shading geographic features of the outbreaks through a process called thematic mapping, and to produce a visual representation of the relationship between epidemic course and time throughout the country. FMD cases reported in northern area of Gyounggi province were clustered in space and time within small geographic areas due to the environmental characteristics which livestock population density is high enough to ease transmit FMD virus to the neighboring farm, whereas FMD cases were clustered in space but not in time for southern and eastern area of Gyounggi province. When analyzing the data for 7-day interval, the mean radius of the spatial-time clustering was 25km with minimum 5.4km and maximum 74km. In addition, the radius of clustering was relatively small in the early stage of FMD epidemic, but the size was geographically expanded over the epidemic course. Prior to implementing control measures during the outbreak period, assessment of geographic units potentially affected and identification of risky areas which are subsequently be targeted for specific intervention measures is recommended.

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Disease survey on bacterial leaf blight of rice in Chun Nam province (전남지방에 있어서의 수도백엽고병 발생실태조사)

  • Lee K. H.;Chung H. W.;Lee W. K.;Lee S. C.;Kim Y. S.
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.4
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 1965
  • 1. This survey was conducted to make a basis for the cause of severe epidemic and disease control to the losses due to bacterial leaf blight of rice in Chun-Nam rice paddy field areas in the first part of October in 1965. The severe epidemic areas were included Taijun-Myun, Tamyang-Eup, riverside in Youngsanpo and seaside in the suburbs of Mokpo. 2. A drought in the period of rice transplanting and flooding due to a heavy rain in July were resulted reasonable weather conditions that the disease occurred more early and severe epidemic. 3. In Tamyang area, frist outbreak of the disease was on the middle part of July in the paddy flooded after heavy rainfall of the first fart of July. It is recognized to farmers that the disease is known as a now serious one. 4. The more date of transplanting is followed, the more serious damage is happened and especially, in the paddy field flooded, too. 5. Flooded areas showed more serious epidemic. 6. Varietal difference to the disease was surely noticed, and Kumnampoong and Chunbonwuk were susceptible, whereas Norin 6 was resistant. 7. Damage was occurred more in plant paddy area than tile slopping paddy area. 8. Fallow paddy field was more serious than the field using double cropping a year. 9. Moist and semimoist paddy field were more serious damage, while light damage in dry paddy field. 10. Near part of flood gate for drainage of submerge paddy was more serious damage than inside part of the field. 11. Soft type is often seen in the mode of the disease occurrences. 12. The most farmers insisted that dropping water is caused to promote disease dissemination when disease occurred.

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Volatility Spillover Effects between BDI with CCFI and SCFI Shipping Freight Indices (BDI와 CCFI 및 BDI와 SCFI 운임지수 사이의 변동성 파급 효과)

  • Meng-Hua Li;Sok-Tae Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.127-163
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    • 2023
  • The objective of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover effects among BDI, CCFI and SCFI. This paper will divide the empirical analysis section into two periods to analyze and compare the differences in volatility spillover effect between shipping freight indices before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 separately. First, in order to compare the mean spillover impact and index lead-lag correlations in BDI and CCFI indices, along with BDI and SCFI indices before and after COVID-19, the co-integration analysis and the test of Granger causality built on the VAR model were utilized. Second, the impulse response and variance decomposition are employed in this work to investigate how the shipping freight index responds to shocks experienced by itself and other freight indices in a short period. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the results demonstrated that the BDI freight index is the Granger cause of the variable CCFI freight index. But the BDI and CCFI freight indices have no apparent lead-lag relationships after COVID-19, and this empirical result echoes the cointegration test result. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the SCFI index leads the BDI index. This study employs the VAR-BEKK-GARCH joint model to explore the volatility spillover results between dry bulk and container transport markets before and after COVID-19. The empirical results demonstrate that after COVID-19, fluctuations in the BDI index still affect the CCFI index in the maritime market. However, there is no proof of a volatility spillover relationship between the BDI and SCFI after the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will provide an insight into the volatility relationship among BDI, CCFI and SCFI before and after the the COVID-19 epidemic occurred.

Clinical aspects of an outbreak of Serratia marcescens infections in neonates (신생아 중환자실에서 Serratia marcescens에 의한 집단 감염 발생에 대한 고찰)

  • Sung, Min-Jung;Chang, Chul-Hun;Yoon, Yeon-Kyong;Park, Su-Eun
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.500-506
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : We evaluated an outbreak of Serratia marcescens infections in 24 neonates in a neonatal intensive care unit(NICU). Methods : From January to August, 2004 a nosocomial outbreak of S. marcescens occurred in our NICU. We describe the clinical characteristics of the outbreak and analyse the risk factors for infections with S. marcescens. After the outbreak stopped, 7 isolates from blood were typed using rapid amplified polymorphic DNA analysis(RAPD). Results : S. marcescens was isolated from 24 neonates, 19 infected and 5 colonized. Seven out of nineteen neonates had bacteremia, 4 had ventilator associated pneumonia, 4 had purulent conjunctivitis, 2 had UTI, 1 had meningitis and 1 had a wound infection. Three neonates died due to S. marcescens infection, 2 of 3 had ventilator associated pneumonia, 1 had meningitis complicated with abscess. The mortality rate of S. marcescens infection was 15.8%. Factors associated with S. marcescens infections were previous antibiotic therapy, indwelling catheter and use of ventilators. The isolated strains were resistant to most antibiotics, but frequently sensitive to imipenem, bactrim and amikacin. RAPD typing results show that at least 3 epidemic strains were related with this outbreak. But one genotype was predominant type in this outbreak. The control measures were instituted and the outbreak stopped within 2 months. Conclusion : S. marcescens can cause rapidly spreading outbreaks associated with fatal infections in neonates. If S. marcescens is isolated from clinical specimens, meticulous infection control measures and epidemiologic investigations should be done at an early stage of the outbreak.

Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea (수학적 모델을 이용한 신종인플루엔자 환자 예측 및 대응 전략 평가)

  • Suh, Min-A;Lee, Jee-Hyun;Chi, Hye-Jin;Kim, Young-Keun;Kang, Dae-Yong;Hur, Nam-Wook;Ha, Kyung-Hwa;Lee, Dong-Han;Kim, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. Methods: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. Results: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). Conclusions: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.

Macroeconomic and Non-Macroeconomic Forces Effect on the Management Performance of the Air Transport Firms (거시경제 및 비 거시경제변수가 항공운송업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Su-Jeong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.352-361
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on the management performance of the air transport firms and offer the useful information to the managers. To conduct the regression analysis, eight macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables were selected individually as an independent variable. Macroeconomic variables were the return of corporate bond, West Texas Intermediate, the unemployment rate, the money supply, the trade balance, the won to USD exchange rate, the consumer price index and the index of industrial production. And non-macroeconomic variables were Taiwan earthquake, the Asian economic crisis, the 911 terrorist attacks in the US, the Iraq war, Beijing Olympic, the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic, the 1st presidential election and the 2nd presidential election. And ROA was selected as a dependent variable. As the result of analysis, it was found that the changing rates of won to USD exchange rate and consumer price index affected the changing rate of ROA significantly. And also as the result of analysing the impact of two significant macroeconomic variables and eight non-macroeconomic variables on the changing rate of ROA, it was found that the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic had a negative impact on it. Therefore managers should take note of a change in macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables carefully to improve the management performance.

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreaks: Diagnosis for Effective Epidemic Disease Management and Control (에볼라 출혈열 발병 : 효과적인 전염병 관리 및 통제를 위한 진단)

  • Kang, Boram;Kim, Hyojin;Macoy, Donah Mary;Kim, Min Gab
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2017
  • The first Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreak occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan in 1976 and then emerged in West Africa in 2014 with a total of 27,741 cases and 11,284 deaths. The fever is caused by the Ebola virus, which belongs to the Filoviridae family and contains a ssRNA genome. The known subtypes of the virus are Bundibugyo ebolavirus, Reston ebolavirus, Sudan ebolavirus, $Ta\ddot{i}$ Forest ebolavirus, and Zaire ebolavirus. The Ebola outbreak was historically originated majorly from the East and Central African tropical belt. The current outbreaks in West Africa caused numerous deaths and spread fear in global society. In the absence of effective treatment strategies and any vaccine, accurate diagnosis is the most important contributing factor in the management and control of the epidemic disease. WHO (World Health Organization) has announced emergency guidance for the selection and use of Ebola in in vitro diagnostic assays. Numerous companies and research institutions have studied the various diagnosis methods and identified four WHO procurement approved as diagnosis kits: RealStar Ebolavirus Screen RT-PCR kit 1.0 (Altona), Liferiver-Ebola Virus (EBOV) Real time RT-PCR kit, Xpert Ebola Assay, and ReEBOV Antigen Rapid Test Kit. The efficiency of novel diagnostic kits such as Rapid Diagnosis Test (RDT) is currently being evaluated.