Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.2.109

Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea  

Suh, Min-A (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine)
Lee, Jee-Hyun (Department of Computational Science and Engineering, Yonsei University)
Chi, Hye-Jin (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine)
Kim, Young-Keun (Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine)
Kang, Dae-Yong (Clinical Trials Center, Yonsei University Health System)
Hur, Nam-Wook (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine)
Ha, Kyung-Hwa (Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Yonsei University)
Lee, Dong-Han (Division of Public Health Crisis Response, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Kim, Chang-Soo (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine)
Publication Information
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health / v.43, no.2, 2010 , pp. 109-116 More about this Journal
Abstract
Objectives: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. Methods: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. Results: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). Conclusions: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.
Keywords
Influenza; Mathematical model; Pandemic; Influenza vaccines; Public policy;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
Times Cited By SCOPUS : 2
연도 인용수 순위
1 Echevarria-Zuno S, Mejia-Arangure JM, Mar-Obeso AJ, Grajales-Muniz C, Robles-Perez E, Gonzalez-Leon M, et al. Infection and death from influenza A H1N1 virus in Mexico: A retrospective analysis. Lancet 2009; 374(9707): 2072-2079.   DOI   ScienceOn
2 Bessell PR, Shaw DJ, Savill NJ, Woolhouse ME. Statistical modeling of holding level susceptibility to infection during the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain. Int J Infect Dis 2010; 14(3): e210-e215.   DOI   ScienceOn
3 Yang Y, Sugimoto JD, Halloran ME, Basta NE, Chao DL, Matrajt L, et al. The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Science 2009; 326(5953): 729-733.   DOI   ScienceOn
4 Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, Ghani AC, Fraser C, Kent CK, et al. Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Engl J Med 2009; 361(27): 2619-2627.   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Garcia-Garcia L, Valdespino-Gomez JL, Lazcano-Ponce E, Jimenez-Corona A, Higuera-Iglesias A, Cruz-Hervert P, et al. Partial protection of seasonal trivalent inactivated vaccine against novel pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009: Case-control study in Mexico City. BMJ 2009; 339: b3928.   DOI
6 White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, Lipsitch M, et al. Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza Other Respi Viruses 2009; 3(6): 267-276.   DOI   ScienceOn
7 Chowell G, Viboud C, Wang X, Bertozzi SM, Miller MA. Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study. PLoS One 2009; 4(12): e8164.   DOI   ScienceOn
8 Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 2004; 159(7): 623-633.   DOI   ScienceOn
9 Basta NE, Chao DL, Halloran ME, Matrajt L, Longini IM Jr. Strategies for pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination of schoolchildren in the United States. Am J Epidemiol 2009; 170(6): 679-686.   DOI   ScienceOn
10 KCDC. Guidance on prevention and infection control measures for 2009 H1N1 influenza. [cited 2010 Feb 28]. Available from URL: http://flu.cdc.go.kr/.
11 Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley P, Potter MA, Wheaton WD, Voorhees RE, et al. Simulating School Closure Strategies to Mitigate an Influenza Epidemic. J Public Health Manag Pract 2009 Dec 23.
12 Sypsa V, Hatzakis A. School closure is currently the main strategy to mitigate influenza A(H1N1)v: A modeling study. Euro Surveill 2009; 14(24). pii: 19240.
13 Yasuda H, Suzuki K. Measures against transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Japan in 2009: Simulation model. Euro Surveill 2009; 14(44). pii: 19385.
14 Arino J, Brauer F, van den Driessche P, Watmough J, Wu J. A model for influenza with vaccination and antiviral treatment. J Theor Biol 2008; 253(1): 118-130.   DOI   ScienceOn
15 CDC. Interim guidance on infection control measures for 2009 H1N1 influenza in healthcare settings, including protection of healthcare personnel. [cited 2010 Feb 28]. Available from URL: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidelines_infection_control.htm.
16 WHO. Mathematical modelling of the pandemic H1N1 2009. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 2009; 84(34): 341-348.
17 Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, et al. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings. Science 2009; 324(5934): 1557-1561.   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Carrat F, Vergu E, Ferguson NM, Lemaitre M, Cauchemez S, Leach S, et al. Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: A review of volunteer challenge studies. Am J Epidemiol 2008; 167(7): 775-785.   DOI   ScienceOn
19 Halloran ME, Hayden FG, Yang Y, Longini IM Jr, Monto AS. Antiviral effects on influenza viral transmission and pathogenicity: Observations from household-based trials. Am J Epidemiol 2007; 165(2): 212-221.
20 Vaillant L, La Ruche G, Tarantola A, Barboza P, epidemic intelligence team at InVS. Epidemiology of fatal cases associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza 2009. Euro Surveill 2009; 14(33). pii: 19309.
21 Nishiura H, Wilson N, Baker MG. Estimating the reproduction number of the novel influenza A virus (H1N1) in a Southern Hemisphere setting: Preliminary estimate in New Zealand. N Z Med J 2009; 122(1299): 73-77.
22 Munayco CV, Gomez J, Laguna-Torres VA, Arrasco J, Kochel TJ, Fiestas V, et al. Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru. Euro Surveill 2009; 14(32). pii: 19299.
23 Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 2005; 437(7056): 209-214.   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Longini IM Jr, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DA, et al. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 2005; 309(5737): 1083-1087.   DOI   ScienceOn
25 Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini IM Jr, Macken CA. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2006; 103(15): 5935-5940.   DOI   ScienceOn
26 Bartlett JG, Borio L. Healthcare epidemiology: The current status of planning for pandemic influenza and implications for health care planning in the United States. Clin Infect Dis 2008; 46(6): 919-925.
27 Chun BC. Modelling the impact of pandemic influenza. J Prev Med Public Health 2005; 38(4): 379-385. (Korean)   과학기술학회마을
28 Markel H, Lipman HB, Navarro JA, Sloan A, Michalsen JR, Stern AM, et al. Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented by US cities during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. JAMA 2007; 298(6): 644-654.   DOI   ScienceOn
29 Lee VJ, Lye DC, Wilder-Smith A. Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - A systematic review of mathematical modeling studies. BMC Med 2009; 7: 76.   DOI   ScienceOn
30 Lawson AB, Zhou H. Spatial statistical modeling of disease outbreaks with particular reference to the UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2001. Prev Vet Med 2005; 71(3-4): 141-156.   DOI   ScienceOn
31 Kim WJ. Overview of pandemic influenza. J Prev Med Public Health 2005; 38(4): 373-378. (Korean)   과학기술학회마을
32 Lee DH, Park KD. The preparedness plan for influenza pandemic. J Prev Med Public Health 2005; 38(4): 386- 390. (Korean)   과학기술학회마을
33 Arino J, Brauer F, van den Driessche P, Watmough J, Wu J. Simple models for containment of a pandemic. J R Soc Interface 2006; 3(8): 453-457.   DOI   ScienceOn