• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ensemble Modeling

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Development of Classification Model for hERG Ion Channel Inhibitors Using SVM Method (SVM 방법을 이용한 hERG 이온 채널 저해제 예측모델 개발)

  • Gang, Sin-Moon;Kim, Han-Jo;Oh, Won-Seok;Kim, Sun-Young;No, Kyoung-Tai;Nam, Ky-Youb
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.653-662
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    • 2009
  • Developing effective tools for predicting absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion properties and toxicity (ADME/T) of new chemical entities in the early stage of drug design is one of the most important tasks in drug discovery and development today. As one of these attempts, support vector machines (SVM) has recently been exploited for the prediction of ADME/T related properties. However, two problems in SVM modeling, i.e. feature selection and parameters setting, are still far from solved. The two problems have been shown to be crucial to the efficiency and accuracy of SVM classification. In particular, the feature selection and optimal SVM parameters setting influence each other, which indicates that they should be dealt with simultaneously. In this account, we present an integrated practical solution, in which genetic-based algorithm (GA) is used for feature selection and grid search (GS) method for parameters optimization. hERG ion-channel inhibitor classification models of ADME/T related properties has been built for assessing and testing the proposed GA-GS-SVM. We generated 6 different models that are 3 different single models and 3 different ensemble models using training set - 1891 compounds and validated with external test set - 175 compounds. We compared single model with ensemble model to solve data imbalance problems. It was able to improve accuracy of prediction to use ensemble model.

Suggestion of Selecting features and learning models for Android-based App Malware Detection (안드로이드 기반 앱 악성코드 탐지를 위한 Feature 선정 및 학습모델 제안)

  • Bae, Se-jin;Rhee, Jung-soo;Baik, Nam-kyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.377-380
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    • 2022
  • An application called an app can be downloaded and used on mobile devices. Among them, Android-based apps have the disadvantage of being implemented on an open source basis and can be exploited by anyone, but unlike iOS, which discloses only a small part of the source code, Android is implemented as an open source, so it can analyze the code. However, since anyone can participate in changing the source code of open source-based Android apps, the number of malicious codes increases and types are bound to vary. Malicious codes that increase exponentially in a short period of time are difficult for humans to detect one by one, so it is efficient to use a technique to detect malicious codes using AI. Most of the existing malicious app detection methods are to extract Features and detect malicious apps. Therefore, three ways to select the optimal feature to be used for learning after feature extraction are proposed. Finally, in the step of modeling with optimal features, ensemble techniques are used in addition to a single model. Ensemble techniques have already shown results beyond the performance of a single model, as has been shown in several studies. Therefore, this paper presents a plan to select the optimal feature and implement a learning model for Android app-based malicious code detection.

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A study on prediction method for flood risk using LENS and flood risk matrix (국지 앙상블자료와 홍수위험매트릭스를 이용한 홍수위험도 예측 방법 연구)

  • Choi, Cheonkyu;Kim, Kyungtak;Choi, Yunseok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.657-668
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    • 2022
  • With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.

Assessing the Climatic Suitability for the Drywood Termite, Cryptotermes domesticus Haviland (Blattodea: Kalotermitidae), in South Korea (마른나무흰개미(가칭)의 국내 기후적합성 평가)

  • Min-Jung Kim;Jun-Gi Lee;Youngwoo Nam ;Yonghwan Park
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.215-220
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    • 2023
  • A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.

Development and Assessment of Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System Using the Cryospheric Variables (빙권요소를 활용한 겨울철 역학 계절예측 시스템의 개발 및 검증)

  • Shim, Taehyoun;Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Ok, Jung;Jeong, Hyun-Sook;Kim, Baek-Min
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2015
  • A dynamical seasonal prediction system for boreal winter utilizing cryospheric information was developed. Using the Community Atmospheric Model, version3, (CAM3) as a modeling system, newly developed snow depth initialization method and sea ice concentration treatment were implemented to the seasonal prediction system. Daily snow depth analysis field was scaled in order to prevent climate drift problem before initializing model's snow fields and distributed to the model snow-depth layers. To maximize predictability gain from land surface, we applied one-month-long training procedure to the prediction system, which adjusts soil moisture and soil temperature to the imposed snow depth. The sea ice concentration over the Arctic region for prediction period was prescribed with an anomaly-persistent method that considers seasonality of sea ice. Ensemble hindcast experiments starting at 1st of November for the period 1999~2000 were performed and the predictability gain from the imposed cryospheric informations were tested. Large potential predictability gain from the snow information was obtained over large part of high-latitude and of mid-latitude land as a result of strengthened land-atmosphere interaction in the modeling system. Large-scale atmospheric circulation responses associated with the sea ice concentration anomalies were main contributor to the predictability gain.

Thermodynamic Properties of Ubiquitin Folding Intermediate (Ubiquitin 폴딩 intermediate의 열역학적 특성)

  • Park, Soon-Ho
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2004
  • Thermodynamic properties of ubiquitin transient folding intermediate were studied by measuring folding kinetics in varying temperatures and denaturant concentrations. Through quantitative kinetic modeling, the equilibrium constant, hence folding free energy, between unfolded state and intermediate state in several different temperatures were calculated. Using these values, the thermodynamic parameters were estimated. The heat capacity change $({\Delta}C_p)$ upon formation of folding intermediate from unfolded state were estimated to be around 80% of the overall folding reaction, indicating that ubiquitin folding intermediate is highly compact. At room temperature, the changes of enthalpy and entropy upon formation of the intermediate state were observed to be positive. The positive enthalpy change suggests that the breaking up of the highly ordered solvent structure surrounding hydrophobic side-chain upon formation of intermediate state. This positive enthalpy was compensated for by the positive entropy change of whole system so that formation of transient intermediate has negative free energy.

Suggestion of User-Centered Climate Service Framework and Development of User Interface Platform for Climate Change Adaptation (기후변화 적응을 위한 사용자 중심의 기후서비스체계 제안 및 사용자인터페이스 플랫폼 개발)

  • Cho, Jaepil;Jung, Imgook;Cho, Wonil;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Kang, Daein;Lee, Junhyuk
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2018
  • There is an emphasis on the importance of adaptation against to climate change and related natural disasters. As a result, various climate information with different time-scale can be used for science-based climate change adaptation policy. From the aspects of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), various time-scaled climate information in Korea is mainly produced by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) However, application of weather and climate information in different application sectors has been done individually in the fields of agriculture and water resources mostly based-on weather information. Furthermore, utilization of climate information including seasonal forecast and climate change projections are insufficient. Therefore, establishment of the Cooperation Center for Application of Weather and Climate Information is necessary as an institutional platform for the UIP (User Interface Platform) focusing on multi-model ensemble (MME) based climate service, seamless climate service, and climate service based on multidisciplinary approach. In addition, APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) was developed as a technical platform for UIP focusing on user-centered downscaling of various time-scaled climate information, application of downscaled data into impact assessment modeling in various sectors, and finally producing information can be used in decision making procedures. AIMS is expected to be helpful for the increase of adaptation capacity against climate change in developing countries and Korea through the voluntary participation of producer and user groups within in the institutional and technical platform suggested.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of Soil Water and Plant Water Stress (토양수분과 식생 스트레스 동역학에 기후변화가 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Su-Hee;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.52-56
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    • 2009
  • In this study a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to derive the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress when subject to stochastic precipitation conditions. The newly developed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress is investigated under climate change scenarios. This model is based on the cumulant expansion theory, and has the advantage of providing the probabilistic solution in the form of probability distribution function (PDF), from which one can obtain the ensemble average behavior of the dynamics. The simulation result of soil water confirms that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the results obtained from observations, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The plant water stress simulation, also, shows two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. Moreover, with all the simulation results with climate change scenarios, it can be concluded that the future soil water and plant water stress dynamics will differently behave with different climate change scenarios.

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Comparison of Model Results for Variation and Resolution of Meteorological Field Using HY-SPLIT (기상장의 종류와 해상도에 따른 HY-SPLIT 모델의 결과 비교)

  • Lee, Chong-Bum;Park, Sang-Jin;Kim, Jea-Chul;Jang, Yun-Jung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.223-230
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    • 2010
  • Trajectory dispersion models are used for the dispersion calculations in air quality assessments, Yellow-sand modeling, environmental planning and the emergency response. Meso-scale forcing and coastal circulations are calculated by trajectory model in the East Asia region. In this study the meteorological fields (GDAS and MM5) coupled to the trajectory model (HY-SPLIT) are applied to simulate the transport and the dispersion. Seoul is selected as a starting point of the HY-SPLIT. The sensitivity studies are performed by conducting an ensemble of simulations using the GDAS and the MM5 model for the same dispersion cases. The results in this study show a significant difference depending on the resolution of meteorological models. Additionally, in most cases of the compared tionally,results from MM5 and GDAS, the absolute and relative distance, shows significant difference and the difference increased with the increasing distance of HY-SPLIT. Therefore, for the case of small domai for twi d field distefbution over complex terrai, should be used only high model temporal or spatial resolution to improve the HY-SPLIT model results.

Bagged Auto-Associative Kernel Regression-Based Fault Detection and Identification Approach for Steam Boilers in Thermal Power Plants

  • Yu, Jungwon;Jang, Jaeyel;Yoo, Jaeyeong;Park, June Ho;Kim, Sungshin
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.1406-1416
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    • 2017
  • In complex and large-scale industries, properly designed fault detection and identification (FDI) systems considerably improve safety, reliability and availability of target processes. In thermal power plants (TPPs), generating units operate under very dangerous conditions; system failures can cause severe loss of life and property. In this paper, we propose a bagged auto-associative kernel regression (AAKR)-based FDI approach for steam boilers in TPPs. AAKR estimates new query vectors by online local modeling, and is suitable for TPPs operating under various load levels. By combining the bagging method, more stable and reliable estimations can be achieved, since the effects of random fluctuations decrease because of ensemble averaging. To validate performance, the proposed method and comparison methods (i.e., a clustering-based method and principal component analysis) are applied to failure data due to water wall tube leakage gathered from a 250 MW coal-fired TPP. Experimental results show that the proposed method fulfills reasonable false alarm rates and, at the same time, achieves better fault detection performance than the comparison methods. After performing fault detection, contribution analysis is carried out to identify fault variables; this helps operators to confirm the types of faults and efficiently take preventive actions.