• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.129-141
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• 2023

Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (E_em), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (E_pm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (E_pm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.319-325
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• 2018

This study conducted an experimental investigation on oscillatory behavior of the hydraulic jump roller. Based on the similarity of the hydraulic jump and tidal bore, the behavior of the front face of hydraulic jump with increasing downstream water depth was studied focusing on profile and fluctuation. In this study, for statistical approach, the ensemble averaging was applied to obtain relevant front profile and compared with the time averaging. The front profile gets mildly sloped and the fluctuation of the starting point of hydraulic jump decreases as the downstream water depth increases.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.310-317
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• 2017

Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.103-118
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• 2018

Ecosystems in subalpine regions are recognized as areas vulnerable to climatic changes because rainfall and the possibility of flora migration are very low due to the characteristics of topography in the regions. In this context, habitat niche was formulated for representative species of arbors in subalpine regions in order to understand the effects of climatic changes on alpine arbor ecosystems. The current potential habitats were modeled as future change areas according to the climatic change scenarios. Based on the growth conditions and environmental characteristics of the habitats, the study was conducted to identify direct and indirect causes affecting the habitat reduction of Abies nephrolepis. Diverse model algorithms for explanation of the relationship between the emergence of biological species and habitat environments were reviewed to construct the environmental data suitable for the six models(GLM, GAM, RF, MaxEnt, ANN, and SVM). Weights determined through TSS were applied to the six models for ensemble in an attempt to minimize the uncertainty of the models. Based on the current climate determined by averaging the climates over the past 30years(1981~2010) and the HadGEM-RA model was applied to fabricate bioclimatic variables for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 on the near and far future. The results of models of the alpine region tree species studied were put together and evaluated and the results indicated that a total of eight national parks such as Mt. Seorak, Odaesan, and Hallasan would be mainly affected by climatic changes. Changes in the Baekdudaegan reserves were analyzed and in the results, A. nephrolepis was predicted to be affected the most in the RCP8.5. The results of analysis as such are expected to be finally utilizable in the survey of biological species in the Korean peninsula, restoration and conservation strategies considering climatic changes as the analysis identified the degrees of impacts of climatic changes on subalpine region trees in Korean peninsula with very high conservation values.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.268-272
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• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.1406-1416
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• 2017

In complex and large-scale industries, properly designed fault detection and identification (FDI) systems considerably improve safety, reliability and availability of target processes. In thermal power plants (TPPs), generating units operate under very dangerous conditions; system failures can cause severe loss of life and property. In this paper, we propose a bagged auto-associative kernel regression (AAKR)-based FDI approach for steam boilers in TPPs. AAKR estimates new query vectors by online local modeling, and is suitable for TPPs operating under various load levels. By combining the bagging method, more stable and reliable estimations can be achieved, since the effects of random fluctuations decrease because of ensemble averaging. To validate performance, the proposed method and comparison methods (i.e., a clustering-based method and principal component analysis) are applied to failure data due to water wall tube leakage gathered from a 250 MW coal-fired TPP. Experimental results show that the proposed method fulfills reasonable false alarm rates and, at the same time, achieves better fault detection performance than the comparison methods. After performing fault detection, contribution analysis is carried out to identify fault variables; this helps operators to confirm the types of faults and efficiently take preventive actions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.387-391
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• 2009

The experimental study on the ducted fan for the propulsion system of a small UAV has been performed. In this paper, to investigate the three-dimensional unsteady flow field characteristics of the ducted fan, it was measured by using a $45^{\circ}$ inclined hot-wire from hub to tip at inlet, behind the rotor and outlet of the ducted fan. The hot-wire signal data was acquired at fixed yaw angle. The data was averaged by using the PLEAT (Phase Locked Ensemble Averaging Technique), and then three of non-linear equations were solved simultaneously by using the Newton-Rhapson numerical method. Flow characteristics such as tip vortex, secondary flow and tip leakage flow were confirmed through axial, radial and tangential contour plot.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.395-398
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• 2009

Currently, a new generation of ducted fan UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) is under development for a wide range of inspection, investigation and combat missions as well as for a variety of civil roles like traffic monitoring, meteorological studies, hazard mitigation etc. The current study presents extensive results obtained experimentally in order to investigate the tip clearance effects on performance characteristics of a ducted fan for small UAV systems. Three ducted fans having different tip clearance gap and with same rotor size were examined under three different yawed conditions of calibrated slanted hot-wire probe. Three dimensional velocity flow fields were measured from hub to tip at outlet of the ducted fan. The analysis of data were done by PLEAT (Phase locked Ensemble Averaging Technique) and three non-linear differential equations were solved simultaneously by using Newton -Rhapson numerical method. Flow field characteristics such as tip vortex and secondary flow were confirmed through axial, radial and tangential velocity contour plots. At the same time, the effects of tip clearance on axial thrust and input power were also investigated by using wind tunnel measurement system. For enhancing the performance of ducted fan, tip clearance level should be as small as possible.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2002.08a
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• pp.185-188
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• 2002

The objective of present paper is to apply a stereoscopic PIV(Particle Image Velocimetry) techiique for measuring the 3 dimensional flow structure of turbulent wake behind a marine propeller with 5 blades. It is essential to measure 3-components velocity fields for the investigation of complicated near-wake behind the propeller. The out-of-plane velocity component was measured using the particle images captured by two CCD cameras in the angular displacement configuration.400 instantaneous velocity fields were measured for each of few different blade phases of $0^{\circ},\;18^{\circ},\;36^{\circ}\;and\;54^{\circ}$. They were ensemble averaged to investigate the spatial evolution of the propeller wake in the region ranged from the trailing edge to the region of one propeller diameter(D) downstream. The phase-averaged velocity fields show the viscous wake formed by the boundary layers developed along the blade surfaces. Tip vortices were formed periodically and the slipstream contraction occurs in the near-wake region. The out-of-plane velocity component has large values at the tip and trailing votices. With going downstream, the axial turbulence intensity and the strength of tip vortices were decreased due to the visous dissipation, turbulence diffusion and blade-to-blade interaction. The blade wake traveling at higher speed with respect to the tip vortex overtakes and interacts with tip vortices formed from the previous blade. Tip vortices are separated from the wake and show oscillating trajectory

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.03b
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• pp.689-690
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• 2008

In the present study, a micro holographic PTV (HPTV) system was used to experimentally investigate the structure of 3D flow within a curved micro-tube with varying Dean number. The employed HPTV system incorporated a high-speed digital camera to measure the temporal evolution of the 3D velocity fields of micro-scale fluid flows. With increasing Dean number, flow in the curved tube is transformed from a steady flow to a secondary flow with two counter-rotating vortices. In this study, to analyze the 3D flow characteristics in the curved section of tube at a high Dean number, the trajectories of fluid particles were obtained experimentally using the whole 3D velocity field data obtained by the micro HPTV technique. The mean velocity field distribution was then obtained by ensemble averaging the instantaneous velocity fields. These results would be helpful in the design of various passages within micro-scale devices or micro-chips and in understanding the mixing phenomena that occur in curved conduits along the trajectories of fluid particles.