• Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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• 2003.08a
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• pp.49-81
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• 2003

It is one of the important problems how to maintain the optimal electric power generation mix. The Objective of this study is development of a computer model which can be used to forecast the investment of power generation unit by the plant owners after restructuring the electricity industry. The impacts of the various government policies can be analyzed using the computer model, thus the government can formulate effective policies for achieving the desired electric power generation mix.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.147-176
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• 2019

This paper uses research on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) in South Korea to conduct a simulation analysis on the impact of nuclear power dependency and usage rates on the social costs of power generation. We compare the $7^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand, which was designed to increase nuclear power generation, to the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand that decreased nuclear power generation and increased renewable energy generation in order to estimate changes in social costs and electricity rates according to the power generation mix. Our environmental generation mix simulation results indicate that social costs may increase by 22% within 10 years while direct generation cost and electricity rates based on generation and other production costs may increase by as much as 22% and 18%, respectively. Thus we confirm that the power generation mix from the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand compared to the $7^{th}$ plan increases social costs of generation, which include environmental external costs.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.61 no.4
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• pp.534-541
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• 2012

This paper tries to elicit an optimal generation mix of Korea. Two approaches, using the screening curve method and taking advantage of a generation expansion planning tool, WASP-IV, are applied in getting the mix. The data used in this study is based on the 5th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand. The Load Duration Curve, that is needed for applying Screening Curve Method(SCM), is made based on the load profile in 2010. In our using SCM, the nuclear plant's operation characteristic, carbon emission cost and spinning reserve are considered. In using WASP-IV to get the adequate generation mix, the base and target demand forecasts in the 5th basic plan are used and the carbon emission cost is also considered. In this paper, It introduces the domestic adequacy generation mix in 2024 though SCM and WASP-IV.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.243-282
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• 2010

In this paper, we analyze the components and trends of carbon emissions using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition method in Korean electricity industry during the period 1991~2007. In the demand side, carbon emissions are affected by electricity intensity and structural shift and especially electricity intensity is identified as the major factor which has lead carbon emissions decreasing. In the supply side, the result in variations of carbon emission for electric power generation depends on the influences of fossil fuel mix, fuel intensity, generation mix and so on. As a result fuel intensity is the most negative effect on both carbon emission intensity and the amount of carbon emission while the change of generation mix has a positive effect on increasing carbon emissions. And to conclude it needs to make the strategic policies to improve electricity intensity in the demand and to rise emission efficiency as well as to substitute thermal power generation in supply side.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.58 no.4
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• pp.708-717
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• 2009

Recently, Korea government decided to introduce RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) mechanism which requires electricity providers to gradually increase the amount of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, bioenergy, and geothermal. As a consequence, it is expected that the long-term fuel mix would be changed to result in more expensive production and the increased production costs would be distributed to the rate payers via electricity tariffs. This paper presents the change in long-term fuel mix in year 2020 with the four RPS scenarios of 3%, 5%, 10% and 20%, and the methodologies for collecting the increased production costs through new tariff schedule. The studies on long-term fuel mix have been carried out with the GATE-PRO (Generation And Transmission Expansion Program) optimization package, a mixed-integer program developed by the Korea Energy Economics Institute and Hongik university. Three methodologies for distributing the production costs to the rate payers have also been demonstrated.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.135-150
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• 2012

This paper presents a portfolio model for a long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed portfolio model evaluates generation mix by considering the tradeoffs between the expected cost for power generation and its variability. Unlike conventional portfolio models measuring variance, we introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in designing the variability with aims to considering events that are enormously expensive but are rare such as nuclear power plant accidents. Further, we consider uncertainties associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and capital costs for power plant investments. To obtain an objective generation by each energy source, we employ the sample average approximation method that approximates the stochastic objective function by taking the average of large sample values so that provides asymptotic convergence of optimal solutions. In addition, the method includes Monte Carlo simulation techniques in generating random samples from multivariate distributions. Applications of the proposed model and method are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with nuclear, coal, oil (OCGT), and LNG (CCGT) in South Korea.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.201-229
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• 2019

This paper estimates the effects of generation mix changes in the $7^{th}$ and $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Long-term Power Supply and Demand from two aspects: economic efficiency through electricity prices and environmental performance through $CO_2$ and air pollutants(NOx, SOx, PM) emissions. Particularly, we examined additional generation mix conversion paths that take into account the trade-off between economic efficiency and environmental performance through scenario analysis. According to our results, the conversion from the $7^{th}$ plan to the $8^{th}$ plan should increase the electricity prices in the mid- and long-term, while reducing GHG and air pollutants emissions at the same time. The alternative generation mix that combines $7^{th}$ and $8^{th}$ plans shows that there exists a path to mitigate the trade-off between economic and environmental in the long-term. It will be next to impossible to derive a optimal generation mix that simultaneously considers the core values, such as supply stability, environmental performance, economic efficiency, energy safety and energy security, when establishing the power supply and demand plan. However, by exploring the effects of various generation mix paths and suggesting near-optimal paths, people can best choose their direction after weighhing all the paths when deciding on a forward-looking generation mix in the long term.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1992.07a
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• pp.106-109
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• 1992

This paper Introduces the concept of the generation cost of generating utilities and its calculation methods. Also, the economic evaluation method using generation cost which is called as a screening curve method will be presented along with the benefits and disadvantages of this concept. Next, the least-cost electric utility planning techniques which is used very widely in many countries will be Introduced In comparison with screening curve method. In this aspects, the optimal dynamic mix can be determined as a result. By comparing these two concepts, we will get the concrete concept why the economic evaluation method using generation cost can not be used for the future generation expansion planning.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.33-53
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• 2003

How to maintain the optimal electric power generation mix is one of the important problems in electric power industry. The objective of this study is to develop a computer model which can be used to forecast the investment in power generation unit by the plant owners after restructuring of electric power industry. Restructuring of electric power industry will make difference in decision making process of investment in power generation unit. After Privatiazation of Power Industry, Gencos will think that profit is the most important factor among all others attracting the investment in the industry. Coal power generation is better than LNG CCGT in terms of profit. However, many studies show that LNG CCGT will be main electric power generation source because the rest of factors other than profit in LNG CCGT are superior than Coal power generation. Because the nst of factors other than profit in LNG CCGT are superior than Coal power generation. The impacts of the various government policies can be analyzed using the computer model, thus the government can formulate effective policies for achieving the desired electric power generation mix.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.164-171
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• 2015

Although coal-fired power generation has played a role as base load unit, it has incurred various social costs in the process of generating and providing electricity. It is necessary to extend the proportion of low-carbon power generations, and reduce the ratio of coal-fired power generation to cope with global climate changes. This study, therefore, attempts to estimate the public's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for substitution of supplied electricity from hydro-electricity generation, a representative renewable energy, for coal-fired power generation. To this end, we apply the contingent valuation (CV) method, widely used technique when valuing non-market goods, to elicit the public's WTP. In addition, a spike model is employed to consider zero WTPs. After the empirical analysis with 1,000 households CV survey data, the results show that mean household's WTP for replacing supplied electricity from hydro-electricity generation with coal-fired power generation is estimated to be about 54 KRW per kWh. The results of this study are expected to contribute to determining energy-mix and provide benefit information of hydro-electricity generation.