• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic growth model

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Analyzing Changes in Consumers' Interest Areas Related to Skin under the Pandemic: Focusing on Structural Topic Modeling (팬데믹에 따른 소비자의 피부 관련 관심 영역 변화 분석: 구조적 토픽모델링을 중심으로)

  • Nakyung Kim;Jiwon Park;HyungBin Moon
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.173-192
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to understand the changes in the beauty industry due to the pandemic from the consumer's perspective based on consumers' opinions about their skin online before and after the pandemic. Furthermore, this study tries to derive strategies for companies and governments to support sustainable growth and innovation in the beauty industry. To this end, posts on social media from 2017 to 2022 that contained the keyword 'skin concerns' are collected, and after data preprocessing, 96,908 posts are used for the structural topic model. To examine whether consumers' interest areas related to skin change according to the pandemic situation, the analysis period is divided into 7 periods, and the variables that distinguish each stage are used as meta-variables for the structural topic model. As a result, it is found that consumers' interests can be divided into 22 topics, which can be categorized into four main categories: beauty manufacturing, beauty services, skin concerns, and other. The results of this study are expected to be utilized in construction of product development and marketing strategies of related companies and the establishment of economic support policies by the government in response to changes in demand in the beauty industry due to the pandemic.

The Effect of Interest Rate Variability on Housing Prices (이자율 변동이 주택가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Myung-hoon
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2022
  • The real estate market is an important part of a country's economy and plays a major role in economic growth through the growth of many related industries. Changes in interest rates affect asset prices and have a significant impact on housing prices. This study analyzed housing prices by dividing them into nationwide, local, and Seoul housing prices in order to analyze whether the effect of changes in interest rates on housing prices shows regional differences. The analysis was conducted from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2021, and was analyzed using the DOLS model. The main analysis results are as follows. First, interest rates were found to have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and a drop in interest rates significantly increased national housing prices and an increase in interest rates significantly lowered national housing prices. The consumer price index and loan growth rate also had a positive effect on housing prices nationwide, but statistical significance was not high. Second, interest rates had a negative effect on local housing prices, unlike national housing prices, but were not statistically significant. On the other hand, it was found that the consumer price index and loan growth rate had a larger and significant positive effect on local housing prices compared to national housing prices. Finally, it was found that the interest rate had the only significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. And this effect was greater and more significant than the effect on national and local housing prices. In the end, it was found that the effect of interest rates on Korean housing prices differs locally. Interest rates have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and local housing prices, but they are not statistically significant. In addition, the interest rate was found to have the largest and most significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. In addition, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of macroeconomic variables on housing prices. This means that there are differences between regions with different factors influencing local and Seoul housing prices, and this point should be considered when drafting and implementing real estate policies.

Empirical Analysis of University Patenting in Korea (특허자료를 이용한 우리나라 대학 연구의 특성 분석)

  • Suh, Joonghae
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.115-151
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    • 2010
  • Recently Korean universities show very rapid increases in both patents and R&D (research and development) expenditures. During the period from 1970 to 2008, university R&D spending has on the average increased 15.3% annually. Along with steady increases in R&D spending, university's research outputs have also continuously increased. In 1990 Korea as a total published 1,613 SCI-level scientific papers and Korean universities applied 27 patents to Korea patent office. In 2008, Korea published more that 35,000 SCI papers and Korean universities applied about 7,300 patents. The growth of scientific articles had begun from the early 1990s whereas the growth of patent has ignited entering the 2000s. The paper tried to investigate university research through the window of patent. Patents lie between invention and innovation and represent the potential value of invention which will be realized at the marketplace. Since Korean patents do not contain citation information, the paper used US patents-NBER patent database-as the main data. The key empirical question is whether Korean university patents granted from USPTO are characteristically different from other Korean patents granted from USPTO. Previous studies on US and Europe show that corporate patents are more stylized in appropriablity of invention, whereas university patents basicness. In case of Korea, the paper confirmed the appropriability characteristic of corporate patents; but the Korean unversity patents are not distinguishable in terms of basicness. The paper estimated the citation frequency function-an empirical model which was firstly developed by Caballero and Jaffe (1993) and later articulated by Jaffe and Trajtenberg (1996, 2002). The model is specified mainly composed of two interacting parts-diffusion effect and obsolescence effect of new ideas or innovations. Estimation results show that differences in forward citations between university and corporate patents are not statistically significant, after controlling self-citation. Since forward citations represent the quality of patents, this estimation result implies that there are no statistically significant quality differences between university and corporate patents. Prior research results, based on the same model of citation frequency function, about US and some European cases show that, in terms of forward citations, university patents are generally superior to corporate patents -for the case of US- or, the former not inferior to the latter-for the case of most of Europe. It is argued that some important and significant policy changes caused the rapid rise of university patents in Korea. Policy changes include the revision of technology transfer act allowing the ownership of publicly-funded research results to researchers and the changes in faculty/professor evaluation which gives more credit to the number of patents. These policy changes have triggered the rapid growth of the number of university patents. The results of the empirical analysis in this paper indicated that Korea now needs to make further efforts to enhance the quality of university patents, not just to produce more numbers of patents.

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A Integrated Model of Land/Transportation System

  • 이상용
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.12a
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    • pp.45-73
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    • 1995
  • The current paper presents a system dynamics model which can generate the land use anq transportation system performance simultaneously is proposed. The model system consists of 7 submodels (population, migration of population, household, job growth-employment-land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level), and each of them is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socio-economic, and policy variables. The important advantages of the system dynamics model are as follows. First, the model can address the complex interactions between land use and transportation system performance dynamically. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for evaluating the time-by-time effect of a policy over time horizons. Secondly, the system dynamics model is not relied on the assumption of equilibrium state of urban systems as in conventional models since it determines the state of model components directly through dynamic system simulation. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is very flexible in reflecting new features, such as a policy, a new phenomenon which has not existed in the past, a special event, or a useful concept from other methodology, since it consists of a lots of separated equations. In Chapter I, II, and III, overall approach and structure of the model system are discussed with causal-loop diagrams and major equations. In Chapter V _, the performance of the developed model is applied to the analysis of the impact of highway capacity expansion on land use for the area of Montgomery County, MD. The year-by-year impacts of highway capacity expansion on congestion level and land use are analyzed with some possible scenarios for the highway capacity expansion. This is a first comprehensive attempt to use dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions. The model structure is not very elaborate mainly due to the problem of the availability of behavioral data, but the model performance results indicate that the proposed approach can be a promising one in dealing comprehensively with complicated urban land use/transportation system.

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The Macroeconomic Impacts of Korean Elections and Their Future Consequences (선거(選擧)의 거시경제적(巨視經濟的) 충격(衝擊)과 파급효과(波及效果))

  • Shim, Sang-dal;Lee, Hang-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 1992
  • This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

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Prediction of Acer pictum subsp. mono Distribution using Bioclimatic Predictor Based on SSP Scenario Detailed Data (SSP 시나리오 상세화 자료 기반 생태기후지수를 활용한 고로쇠나무 분포 예측)

  • Kim, Whee-Moon;Kim, Chaeyoung;Cho, Jaepil;Hur, Jina;Song, Wonkyong
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2022
  • Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.

A Study on the Application Effect of Central-Grid PV System at a Streetlamp using RETScreen - A Case Study of Gwangjin-gu - (RETScreen을 이용한 가로등의 계통연계형 태양광시스템 적용 효과 분석 - 서울시 광진구를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Seongmin;Choi, Bong-Seok;Kim, Seungjin;Mun, Hyo-dong;Lee, Jeongwoo;Park, Nyun-Bae;Jeon, Eui-Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2014
  • With continued economic growth, Korea has seen an increase in the nighttime activities of its citizens as hours of activity have extended into night. There is an increasing trend in energy consumption related to citizens' nighttime activities. In order to analyze ideas for an efficient replacement of the power consumption of streetlights and for profit generation by applying grid-type solar systems, this study used an RETScreen model. Through energy analysis and cost analysis, the application benefit and viability of grid-type solar street light systems were analyzed. With analysis result of a total weekly power generation of 114 kWh via a grid-connected solar streetlight system, it was shown that the net present value of a grid-connected solar street light system is 155,362 KRW, which would mean a payback period of about 5.2 years, and as such, it was shown that profit could be generated after about 6 years. In addition, if the grid-connected solar power generation system proposed by this study is to be applied, it was shown that 401,935 KRW in profit could be generated after the 20-year useful life set for the solar system. In addition, the sensitivity analysis was performed taking into account the price fluctuations of SMP, maintenance. As a result, a payback period has increased by 1~2 years, and there were no significant differences. Because the most important factor that affect the economic analysis is the cost of supply certification of renewable energy, a stable sales and acquisition of this certification are very important. the Seoul-type Feed in Tariff(FIT) connected to other institutions will enable steady sales by confirming to purchase the certification for 12 years. Therefore, if those issues mentioned above are properly reflected, Central-grid PV system project will be able to perform well in the face of unfavorable condition of solar PV installation.

New Business Success using Strategic Innovation Strategy: Marine Engine Business and HEMAPT System of the Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. (신규사업성공과 전략적 기술혁신전략: 현대중공업의 엔진사업진출과 HEMAPT시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Wha Young
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2016
  • Firms should seek greater profits and corporate growth through new businesses. New businesses contribute realizing creative economy that creates good jobs, and expanding the company by securing new markets and creating new profits and growth. However, new business is risky management decision-making to have a high failure rate because it involves the adaptation of new business environment and the burden of new investments, including the uncertainty of success in business. Therefore, innovation strategies play important roles for the new business entry, using product innovation, process innovation, business model innovation, disruptive innovation, and strategic innovation, etc. and company will get huge economic results by pushing them into successful business. It is essential that innovation strategy and IT development strategy along with business strategy of a firm are linked, and their strategic alignment is considered to be a critical success factor for new business success. Hyundai Heavy Industries(HHI) pursued marine engine business for the development of precision machinery industry and shipbuilding industry of Korea, and the company recognized the importance of new business strategy, innovation strategy, and IT strategy inter-linked, and pushed strategic alignment boldly. As a result, HHI won the competition in European and Japanese engine manufacturers and climbed into the world's largest engine manufacturer. This study suggests investigating and analyzing a case that HHI succeeded in marine engine business expansion using strategic innovation strategy as a way of the introduction of CNC machine tools and the development of HEMAPT system.

A Study on the Entrepreneurship Curriculum Development Model to Systemize Entrepreneurship Education in Entrepreneurial Graduate School (AHP를 활용한 창업대학원 교과목 선호도 평가요인별 중요도에 관한 연구: 창업대학원 재학생을 대상으로)

  • Lee, Il han;Kim, Hyun sook
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2016
  • Since global circumstances have become competitive, entrepreneurship has been regarded as the most important factors in economic revitalization not only in korea but also internationally. According to these changes, public entrepreneurship education has been started from the year of 2004 establishing Entrepreneurial Graduate School as a part of governmental plan. Although entrepreneurship education history is not long enough in korea, but the need for entrepreneurship education in social is now going ahead of the public education systems such as universities and graduate schools. Therefore, this study is conducted for the purpose of drawing the subject frame for systematized integration curriculum of entrepreneurship education through evaluating the importance of the subjects by Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis after being composed of 6 modularity in the Entrepreneurship subjects. This was structured based on studying the current status for entrepreneurship education in domestic universities and graduate schools. The research findings under the condition of Judgement consistency ratio 0.1 are as follows. The most important factors are in order as following; "Entrepreneurial Issues for Fund"(.242), "Entrepreneurship Plan"(.195), "Entrepreneurship & Entrepreneurship mindset"(.161), "Entrepreneurial Issues for Growth & Development"(.160), "Management Skill & Strategy"(.150), and "Special Entrepreneurship"(.093). Then, these findings also represent subfactors as well. The results of this study provide the practical guidelines where the curriculums needed for the entrepreneurship education at graduate schools by suggesting consistency for the systematic and comprehensive curriculum design. It was reflected the survey result from the graduate students taking the entrepreneurship subjects. Therefore, it will contribute the foundation of the present curriculum of Entrepreneurial Graduate School.

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A Study on the Cost Analysis of Service Export - K SME Case of MICE-related Industry - (서비스 수출원가 분석 - MICE 산업 관련 중소기업 사례연구 -)

  • Park, Moon-Suh
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.485-516
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    • 2011
  • Republic of Korea is small nation that is comprised of 0.7% of the world population and occupying just 0.07% of the world territory. Despite this, Republic of Korea once again proved herself to be as the world's major economic powerhouse by becoming the world's 7th largest exporter in 2010. However, the reality is that Republic of Korea is still significantly concerned about the volatile economic nature and anxiety that is spread across the globe since the global depression that began at the end of 2008 and the financial crisis that has been threatening the Euro-Zone recently. This has resulted in the nation reaching the limitation in significant economic growth and limited creation of jobs within the nation and due to such circumstances, the nation is becoming more aware of the fact that she needs to pay more attention on the service sector and service exports if she was to see a more positive economic outlook in the upcoming future. This research is aimed to analyse the cost that is associated with the service export sector, by examining a number of enterprises in relation to the MICE(Meeting Incentives Convention Exhibition) industry which certainly has both direct and indirect influences on the service exports of the nation Further, the prime goal of the research is to encourage the SMEs of Korea, who have substandard experience associated to foreign exports, to intensify and increase service exports and also the goal extends to the degree to suggest appropriate assistance measures to aid these enterprises to achieve such goals. This research is fundamentally designed and based on the literature research associated with the MICE industry and also, this research is premeditated through the analysis of the case of exports to Vietnam. As the result of research, it has been found out that SMEs in the MICE industry and those of in service export sector are reluctant or even feel insecure to attempt any kind of export of their services mainly due to; the lack of foreign market information and also the lack of experience associated with service exports. Furthermore, it has also been revealed that the difficulty to estimate the validity and profitability of service the export is a significant factor withholding those enterprises from attempting any service export to the foreign markets. Henceforth, in order to aid and stimulate service export to the foreign markets by these SMEs (including those in association with the MICE industry), it is imperative to prepare an one-stop service export assistance program which would provide the information associated with marketing, law and legislation, taxation system and financial area in regard to the global markets.

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