• Title/Summary/Keyword: Dynamic Conditional Correlation

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No-reference quality assessment of dynamic sports videos based on a spatiotemporal motion model

  • Kim, Hyoung-Gook;Shin, Seung-Su;Kim, Sang-Wook;Lee, Gi Yong
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.538-548
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    • 2021
  • This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of no-reference video quality assessment for sports videos with dynamic motion scenes using an efficient spatiotemporal model. In the proposed method, we divide the video sequences into video blocks and apply a 3D shearlet transform that can efficiently extract primary spatiotemporal features to capture dynamic natural motion scene statistics from the incoming video blocks. The concatenation of a deep residual bidirectional gated recurrent neural network and logistic regression is used to learn the spatiotemporal correlation more robustly and predict the perceptual quality score. In addition, conditional video block-wise constraints are incorporated into the objective function to improve quality estimation performance for the entire video. The experimental results show that the proposed method extracts spatiotemporal motion information more effectively and predicts the video quality with higher accuracy than the conventional no-reference video quality assessment methods.

The Portfolio Advantages of Sukuk: Dynamic Correlations Between Bonds and Sukuk

  • ALFALAH, Abdullah;STEVENSON, Simon;D'ARCY, Eamonn
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.13-28
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    • 2022
  • The growth of the Islamic finance sector has been well-documented. One of the most booming sectors has been Sukuk. According to several past studies, non-Islamic investors' interest in Sukuk is due, at least in part, to the diversification benefits that Sukuk provides in the context of a fixed-income portfolio. This paper compares a pair between Sukuk and Bonds in the Malaysian market issued by the same issuer to have an unbiased comparison. Using unconditional correlation methodology provides an initial examination of the relationship between the matched pairs. In addition, this paper adopts the standard GARCH-DCC approach of Engle (2002). This is a generalization of the Bollserslev (1990) GARCH model, allowing for the conditional correlation matrices to be time-varying. The findings reveal that the correlation between bonds and Sukuk is similar to that of bonds, making Sukuk a less appealing type of bond from a diversification standpoint. There are no significant differences between Sukuk and bonds. These finding questions the previously considered differences among different types of Sukuk and supports the argument that some Sukuk might not be compliant with Islamic rules and their structure, as contracts have the same risks for Sukuk holders regardless of the type of Sukuk.

Dynamic bivariate correlation methods comparison study in fMRI

  • Jaehee Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.87-104
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    • 2024
  • Most functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies in resting state have assumed that the functional connectivity (FC) between time series from distinct brain regions is constant. However, increased interest has recently been in quantifying possible dynamic changes in FC during fMRI experiments. FC study may provide insight into the fundamental workings of brain networks to brain activity. In this work, we focus on the specific problem of estimating the dynamic behavior of pairwise correlations between time courses extracted from two different brain regions. We compare the sliding-window techniques such as moving average (MA) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), dynamic causality with vector autoregressive (VAR) model, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) based on volatility, and the proposed alternative methods to use differencing and recursive residuals. We investigate the properties of those techniques in a series of simulation studies. We also provide an application with major depressive disorder (MDD) patient fMRI data to demonstrate studying dynamic correlations.

A Study on the Dynamic Correlation between the Korean ETS Market, Energy Market and Stock Market (한국 ETS시장, 에너지시장 및 주식시장 간의 동태적 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Guo-Dong Yang;Yin-Hua Li
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.189-208
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    • 2023
  • This paper analyzed the dynamic conditional correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market and stock market. This paper conducted an empirical analysis using daily data of Korea's carbon credit trading price, WTI crude oil futures price, and KOSPI index from February 2, 2015 to December 30, 2021. First, the volatility of the three markets was analyzed using the GARCH model, and then the dynamic conditional correlations between the three markets were studied using the bivariate DCC-GARCH model. The research results are as follows. First, it was found that the Korean ETS market has a higher rate of return and higher investment risk than the stock market. Second, the yield volatility of the Korean ETS market was found to be most affected by external shocks and least affected by the volatility information of the market itself. Third, the correlation between the Korean ETS market and the stock market was stronger than that of the WTI crude oil futures market. This paper analyzed the correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market, and stock market and confirmed that the level of financialization in the Korean ETS market is quite low.

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nepal

  • Kim, Do-Hyun;Subedi, Shyam;Chung, Sang-Kuck
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.123-144
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    • 2016
  • This paper investigates the linkages between returns both in foreign exchange and stock markets, and uncertainties in two markets using daily data for the period of 16 July 2004 to 30 June 2014 in Nepalese economy. Four hypotheses are tested about how uncertainty influences the stock index and exchange rates. From the empirical results, a bivariate EGARCH-M model is the best to explain the volatility in the two markets. There is a negative relationship from the exchange rates return to stock price return. Empirical results do provide strong empirical confirmation that negative effect of stock index uncertainty and positive effect of exchange rates uncertainty on average stock index. GARCH-in-mean variables in AR modeling are significant and shows that there is positive effect of exchange rates uncertainty and negative effect of stock index uncertainty on average exchange rates. Stock index shocks have longer lived effects on uncertainty in the stock market than exchange rates shock have on uncertainly in the foreign exchange market. The effect of the last period's shock, volatility is more sensitive to its own lagged values.

An Analysis on the Asymmetric Time Varying Spillover Effect between Capesize and Panamax Markets (케이프사이즈와 파나막스 시장간의 비대칭 시간가변 파급효과에 관한 분석)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.41-64
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    • 2011
  • This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns using fractionally integrated error correction term and volatilities using constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation GARCH with asymmetries between Capesize and Panamax markets. Our findings are as follows. First, for the fractionally cointegrated error correction model, there is a unidirectional relationship in returns from the Panamax market to the Capesize market, but a bidirectional causal relationship prevails for the traditional error correction models. Second, the coefficients for the error correction term are all statistically significant. Of particular interest are the signs of the estimates for the error correction term, which are all negative for the Capesize return equation and all positive for the Panamax return. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets and the direction of the information flow seems to be stronger from Panamax to Capesize. Fourth, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significantly positive in the Capesize market, but the Panamax market does not have a significant effect. However, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significant, implying that the leverage effect does exist in the Capesize and Panamax markets.

Nonlinear approach to modeling heteroscedasticity in transfer function analysis (시계열 전이함수분석 이분산성의 비선형 모형화)

  • 황선영;김순영;이성덕
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.311-321
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    • 2002
  • Transfer function model(TFM) capturings conditional heteroscedastic pattern is introduced to analyze stochastic regression relationship between the two time series. Nonlinear ARCH concept is incorporated into the TFM via threshold ARCH and beta- ARCH models. Steps for statistical analysis of the proposed model are explained along the lines of the Box & Jenkins(1976, ch. 10). For illustration, dynamic analysis between KOSPI and NASDAQ is conducted from which it is seen that threshold ARCH performs the best.

Multivariate GARCH and Its Application to Bivariate Time Series

  • Choi, M.S.;Park, J.A.;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.915-925
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    • 2007
  • Multivariate GARCH has been useful to model dynamic relationships between volatilities arising from each component series of multivariate time series. Methodologies including EWMA(Exponentially weighted moving-average model), DVEC(Diagonal VEC model), BEKK and CCC(Constant conditional correlation model) models are comparatively reviewed for bivariate time series. In addition, these models are applied to evaluate VaR(Value at Risk) and to construct joint prediction region. To illustrate, bivariate stock prices data consisting of Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics are analysed.

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On multivariate GARCH model selection based on risk management (리스크 관리 측면에서 살펴본 다변량 GARCH 모형 선택)

  • Park, SeRin;Baek, Changryong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1333-1343
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    • 2014
  • Hansen and Lund (2005) documented that a univariate GARCH(1,1) model is no worse than other sophisticated GARCH models in terms of prediction errors such as MSPE and MAE. Here, we extend Hansen and Lund (2005) by considering multivariate GARCH models and incorporating risk management measures such as VaR and fail percentage. Our Monte Carlo simulations study shows that multivariate GARCH(1,1) model also performs well compared to asymmetric GARCH models. However, we suggest that actual model selection should be done with care in light of risk management. It is applied to the realized volatilities of KOSPI, NASDAQ and HANG SENG index for recent 10 years.

An Empirical Study on the effects of volatility of carbon market on stock price volatility : Focusing on Europe iron and cement sector (탄소시장의 변동성이 주가변동성에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구 : 유럽의 철강산업과 시멘트산업을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Dong-Woo;Kim, Young-Duk
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.223-245
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    • 2017
  • This study is examined interaction between carbon market with stock market using a multivariate GARCH(DCC) model. Carbon market is EU ETS EUA price, stock market is the iron and cement stock price which has relatively energy intensive and massive carbon emissions sector in the industrial sector. It also analyzed changes in the correlation between the markets through an analysis of correlation coefficients. Moreover, it checked whether there was marketability expansion(or expansion of carbon emissions reduction) through the analysis above. As a result of empirical tests, it showed that the price spillover effect was insignificant. In addition, it represented that there was a weak correlation between the two markets since the volatility spillover effect disappeared in the second phase by an external shock(a financial crisis). Moreover, it was revealed that there were no significant changes although there was a weak upward trend in terms of the correlation between the carbon market and the stock market. This implies that emission rights could not expand marketability to financial market as a commodity(or did not play its natural role of the reduction of carbon emission).