• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-32
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• 2018

In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

• Korean small business review
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.77-93
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• 2011

Since 2000, the employment rate of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) has dwindled while the creation of new jobs and the emergence of healthy SMEs have been stagnant. The fundamental reason for these symptoms is that the economic structure is disadvantageous to SMEs. In particular, the greater gap between SMEs and large enterprises has resulted in polarization, and the resulting imbalance has become the largest obstacle to improving SMEs' competitiveness. For example, the total productivity has continued to drop, and the average productivity of SMEs is now merely 30% of that of large enterprises, and the average wage of SMEs' employees is only 53% of that of large enterprises. Along with polarization, rapid industrialization has also caused anti-enterprise consensus, the collapse of the middle class, hostility towards establishments, and other aftereffects. The general consensus is that unless these problems are solved, South Korea will not become an advanced country. Especially, South Korea is now facing issues that need urgent measures, such as the decline of its economic growth, the worsening distribution of profits, and the increased external volatility. Recognizing such negative trends, the MB administration proposed a win-win growth policy and recently introduced a new national value called "ecosystemic development." As the terms in such policy agenda are similar, however, the conceptual differences among such terms must first be fully understood. Therefore, in this study, the concepts of win-win growth policy and ecosystemic development, and the need for them, were surveyed, and their differences from and similarities with other policy concepts like win-win cooperation and symbiotic development were examined. Based on the results of the survey and examination, the study introduced a South Korean model of win-win growth, targeting the promotion of a sound balance between large enterprises and SMEs and an innovative ecosystem, and finally, proposing future policy tasks. Win-win growth is not an academic term but a policy term. Thus, it is less advisable to give a theoretical definition of it than to understand its concept based on its objective and method as a policy. The core of the MB administration's win-win growth policy is the creation of a partnership between key economic subjects such as large enterprises and SMEs based on each subject's differentiated capacity, and such economic subjects' joint promotion of growth opportunities. Its objective is to contribute to the establishment of an advanced capitalistic system by securing the sustainability of the South Korean economy. Such win-win growth policy includes three core concepts. The first concept, ecosystem, is that win-win growth should be understood from the viewpoint of an industrial ecosystem and should be pursued by overcoming the issues of specific enterprises. An enterprise is not an independent entity but a social entity, meaning it exists in relationship with the society (Drucker, 2011). The second concept, balance, points to the fact that an effort should be made to establish a systemic and social infrastructure for a healthy balance in the industry. The social system and infrastructure should be established in such a way as to create a balance between short- term needs and long-term sustainability, between freedom and responsibility, and between profitability and social obligations. Finally, the third concept is the behavioral change of economic entities. The win-win growth policy is not merely about simple transactional relationships or determining reasonable prices but more about the need for a behavior change on the part of economic entities, without which the objectives of the policy cannot be achieved. Various advanced countries have developed different win-win growth models based on their respective cultures and economic-development stages. Japan, whose culture is characterized by a relatively high level of group-centered trust, has developed a productivity improvement model based on such culture, whereas the U.S., which has a highly developed system of market capitalism, has developed a system that instigates or promotes market-oriented technological innovation. Unlike Japan or the U.S., Europe, a late starter, has not fully developed a trust-based culture or market capitalism and thus often uses a policy-led model based on which the government leads the improvement of productivity and promotes technological innovation. By modeling successful cases from these advanced countries, South Korea can establish its unique win-win growth system. For this, it needs to determine the method and tasks that suit its circumstances by examining the prerequisites for its success as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each advanced country. This paper proposes a South Korean model of win-win growth, whose objective is to upgrade the country's low-trust-level-based industrial structure, in which large enterprises and SMEs depend only on independent survival strategies, to a high-trust-level-based social ecosystem, in which large enterprises and SMEs develop a cooperative relationship as partners. Based on this objective, the model proposes the establishment of a sound balance of systems and infrastructure between large enterprises and SMEs, and to form a crenovative social ecosystem. The South Korean model of win-win growth consists of three axes: utilization of the South Koreans' potential, which creates community-oriented energy; fusion-style improvement of various control and self-regulated systems for establishing a high-trust-level-oriented social infrastructure; and behavioral change on the part of enterprises in terms of putting an end to their unfair business activities and promoting future-oriented cooperative relationships. This system will establish a dynamic industrial ecosystem that will generate creative energy and will thus contribute to the realization of a sustainable economy in the 21st century. The South Korean model of win-win growth should pursue community-based self-regulation, which promotes the power of efficiency and competition that is fundamentally being pursued by capitalism while at the same time seeking the value of society and community. Already existing in Korea's traditional roots, such objectives have become the bases of the Shinbaram culture, characterized by the South Koreans' spontaneity, creativity, and optimism. In the process of a community's gradual improvement of its rules and procedures, the trust among the community members increases, and the "social capital" that guarantees the successful control of shared resources can be established (Ostrom, 2010). This basic ideal can help reduce the gap between large enterprises and SMEs, alleviating the South Koreans' victim mentality in the face of competition and the open-door policy, and creating crenovative corporate competitiveness. The win-win growth policy emerged for the purpose of addressing the polarization and imbalance structure resulting from the evolution of 21st-century capitalism. It simultaneously pursues efficiency and fairness on one hand and economic and community values on the other, and aims to foster efficient interaction between the market and the government. This policy, however, is also evolving. The win-win growth policy can be considered an extension of the win-win cooperation that the past 'Participatory Government' promoted at the enterprise management level to the level of systems and culture. Also, the ecosystemic development agendum that has recently emerged is a further extension that has been presented as a national ideal of "a new development model that promotes the co-advancement of environmental conservation, growth, economic development, social integration, and national and individual development."

• Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.52-61
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• 2005

Background: Guillain-Barre syndrome is defined as a recognizable clinical entity that is characterized by rapidly evolving symmetric limb weakness, the loss of tendon reflexes, absent or mild sensory signs, and variable autonomic dysfunctions. This study evaluated the clinical and electrophysiological findings retrospectively. Materials and Methods: Forty-five patients with Guillain-Barre syndrome, who were admitted to the Yeungnam University Hospital for six years from Jan. 1994 to Dec. 1999 were investigated. The correlation between the clinical manifestation and the electrophysiological study was evaluated. Results: The male to female ratio was 1.8:1 and there was a peak seasonal incidence in the winter. A preceding illness was noted in 66.7 % of cases, and an upper respiratory tract infection was the most common one. The most common clinical manifestations were a loss of tendon reflex and ascending muscle weakness and paralysis. The cerebrospinal fluid examinations revealed, albuminocytologic dissociation in 33 cases (73.3 %). Intravenous immunoglobulin therapy was performed in 29 cases (64.4 %). The sequential electrophysiological abnormalities were most marked at 2 to 4 weeks after onset. At that time the most significant change was a decrease in the compound muscle action potential amplitude. These 45 patients with Guillain-Barre syndrome were subclassified using the clinical and electrophysiological data. Conclusion: The result in this study, concured with other research on the clinical and electrophysiological data of Guillain-Barre syndrome. However, an extensive and dynamic investigation is necessary to determine the reason for the peak seasonal incidence in winter.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.26-46
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• 2020

An irrigated-maize agroecosystem is viewed as an open thermodynamic system upon which solar radiation impresses a large gradient that moves the system away from equilibrium. Following the imperative of the second law of thermodynamics, such agroecosystem resists and reduces the externally applied gradient by using all means of this nature-human coupled system acting together as a nonequilibrium dissipative process. The ultimate purpose of our study is to test this hypothesis by examining the energetics of agroecosystem growth and development. As a first step toward this test, we employed the eddy covariance flux data from 2003 to 2014 at the AmeriFlux NE1 irrigated-maize site at Mead, Nebraska, USA, and analyzed the energetics of this agroecosystem by scrutinizing its radiation, energy and entropy exchange. Our results showed: (1) more energy capture during growing season than non-growing season, and increasing energy capture through growing season until senescence; (2) more energy flow activity within and through the system, providing greater potential for degradation; (3) higher efficiency in terms of carbon uptake and water use through growing season until senescence; and (4) the resulting energy degradation occurred at the expense of increasing net entropy accumulation within the system as well as net entropy transfer out to the surrounding environment. Under the drought conditions in 2012, the increased entropy production within the system was accompanied by the enhanced entropy transfer out of the system, resulting in insignificant net entropy change. Drought mitigation with more frequent irrigation shifted the main route of entropy transfer from sensible to latent heat fluxes, yielding the production and carbon uptake exceeding the 12-year mean values at the cost of less efficient use of water and light.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.169-204
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• 2010

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.584-598
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• 2019

In this study, the effects of air-sea interactions on precipitation over the Seoul-Gyeonggi region of the Korean Peninsula from 28 to 30 August 2018, were analyzed using a Regional atmosphere-ocean Coupled Model (RCM). In the RCM, a WRF (Weather Research Forecasts) was used as the atmosphere model whereas ROMS (Regional Oceanic Modeling System) was used as the ocean model. In a Regional Single atmosphere Model (RSM), only the WRF model was used. In addition, the sea surface temperature data of ECMWF Reanalysis Interim was used as low boundary data. Compared with the observational data, the RCM considering the effect of air-sea interaction represented that the spatial correlations were 0.6 and 0.84, respectively, for the precipitation and the Yellow Sea surface temperature in the Seoul-Gyeonggi area, which was higher than the RSM. whereas the mean bias error (MBE) was -2.32 and -0.62, respectively, which was lower than the RSM. The air-sea interaction effect, analyzed by equivalent potential temperature, SST, dynamic convergence fields, induced the change of SST in the Yellow Sea. In addition, the changed SST caused the difference in thermal instability and kinematic convergence in the lower atmosphere. The thermal instability and convergence over the Seoul-Gyeonggi region induced upward motion, and consequently, the precipitation in the RCM was similar to the spatial distribution of the observed data compared to the precipitation in the RSM. Although various case studies and climatic analyses are needed to clearly understand the effects of complex air-sea interaction, this study results provide evidence for the importance of the air-sea interaction in predicting precipitation in the Seoul-Gyeonggi region.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.63-74
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• 2008

With the awareness that Sinyeongwol Sipgyeong(ten scenic spots in Yeongwol) were designed too hastily and only for PR purposes after the change in the tourism environment, this paper indicates that most tourism and culture sources in Yeongwol are related to King Danjong, the sixth king of the Joseon Dynasty. This study proposes a 'Storytelling Plan' for the landscape content called 'Cultural Landscapes - Yeongwol Palgyeong(eight scenic spots in Yeongwol)' after reviewing types and content of Yeongwol Palgyeong through the halo effect of the well-known sad history of King Danjong and the cultural value of Yeongwol. The significance of the unity of the historic site and neighboring landscape is focused on by investigating the anaphoric relations between cultural landscape texts('Yeongwol Palgyeong') and historic content(the sad history of King Danjong). For this, the cultural lnddscape of Yeongwol has been framed and layered to make spatial texts. To emphasize the 'Telling' as well as the 'Story,' interesting episodes have been reviewed to discover a motive. To diversify the 'Telling' methods, absorptive landscape factors have been classified as 'Place,' 'Object' and 'Visual Point.' In addition the storytelling of Yeongwol Palgyeong was examined in consideration of the story and background of 'Yeongwol Palgyeong - Sad Story of King Danjong' and the interaction of a variety of cultural content by suggesting micro-content such as infotainment and edutainment as absorptive landscape factors. In order to make the storytelling plan available in practice as an alternative plan for Yeongwol Tourism, a visual point should be properly set to make the landscape look sufficiently dynamic. In addition, real landscape routes and narration scenarios should be prepared as well. Professional landscape interpreters who are well informed of the natural features of Yeongwol and the history of King Danjong should be brought into the project, and Internet and digital technology-based strategies should be developed.

• Progress in Medical Physics
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.145-153
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• 2012

In this study, we quantify the residual motion artifact in 4D-CT scan using the dynamic lung phantom which could simulate respiratory target motion and suggest a simple one-dimension theoretical model to explain and characterize the source of motion artifacts in 4DCT scanning. We set-up regular 1D sine motion and adjusted three level of amplitude (10, 20, 30 mm) with fixed period (4s). The 4DCT scans are acquired in helical mode and phase information provided by the belt type respiratory monitoring system. The images were sorted into ten phase bins ranging from 0% to 90%. The reconstructed images were subsequently imported into the Treatment Planning System (CorePLAN, SC&J) for target delineation using a fixed contour window and dimensions of the three targets are measured along the direction of motion. Target dimension of each phase image have same changing trend. The error is minimum at 50% phase in all case (10, 20, 30 mm) and we found that ${\Delta}S$ (target dimension change) of 10, 20 and 30 mm amplitude were 0 (0%), 0.1 (5%), 0.1 (5%) cm respectively compare to the static image of target diameter (2 cm). while the error is maximum at 30% and 80% phase ${\Delta}S$ of 10, 20 and 30 mm amplitude were 0.2 (10%), 0.7 (35%), 0.9 (45%) cm respectively. Based on these result, we try to analysis the residual motion artifact in 4D-CT scan using a simple one-dimension theoretical model and also we developed a simulation program. Our results explain the effect of residual motion on each phase target displacement and also shown that residual motion artifact was affected that the target velocity at each phase. In this study, we focus on provides a more intuitive understanding about the residual motion artifact and try to explain the relationship motion parameters of the scanner, treatment couch and tumor. In conclusion, our results could help to decide the appropriate reconstruction phase and CT parameters which reduce the residual motion artifact in 4DCT.

• Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.99-110
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• 2018

In this study, oil of Platycodon grandiflorum seeds was prepared using supercritical carbon dioxide extraction (SCE) and its physicochemical indices as a new edible oil were investigated. Compared to Soxhlet solvent extraction, SCE under the condition of 6,000 psi at $40^{\circ}C$ produced more oil, especially from the roasted seeds to 32.7%. TLC analysis showed triacylglycerols accounted for most of the oil obtained from roasted Platycodon grandiflorum seeds by SCE similarly to commercial soybean oil or perilla seeds oil. The oil had highly unsaturated lipid with considerable amount of linoleic acid(73.27%) much more than two commercial oils followed by oleic acid(13.16%). Physicochemical properties of the oil were as follows; specific gravity, 0.92; dynamic viscosity, 45.37 cP; refractive index, 1.48; color, L=47.30, a=-3.69, b=25.72; iodine value, 141.57 g $I_2/100g$ oil; saponification value, 191.21 mg of KOH/g of oil; acid value, 2.60 mg of KOH/g of oil. Among those, refractive index, viscosity and iodine value, which were related to unsaturation degree of lipid, were ranged between those of two commercial oils. The oxidation stability of oil(2.03 hr) was also ranged between less stable perilla seeds oil(1.79 hr) and more stable soybean oil(2.94 hr) based on the induction time measured by Rancimat assay. In addition to extraction yield increase, seeds roasting provided further benefits such as reductions of cholesterol ester content and acid value without change in fatty acid composition. In conclusion, oil was extracted from the roasted Platycodon grandiflorum seeds at high yield by supercritical carbon dioxide and it seemed to have proper characteristics as a edible oil.

• Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.507-517
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• 2008

There are considerable in vitro and in vivo evidences for remineralization and demineralization occurring simultaneously in incipient enamel caries. In order to "heal" the incipient dental caries, many experiments have been carried out to determine the optimal conditions for remineralization. It was shown that remineralization is affected by different pH, lactic acid concentrations, chemical composition of the enamel, fluoride concentrations, etc. Eighty specimens from sound permanent teeth without demineralization or cracks, 0.15 mm in thickness, were immersed in lactic acid buffered demineralization solutions for 3 days. Dental caries with a surface zone and subsurface lesion were artificially produced. Groups of 10 specimens were immersed for 10 or 12 days in lactic acid buffered remineralization solutions consisting of pH 4.3 or pH 6.0, and 100, 50, 25, or 10 mM lactic acid. After demineralization and remineralization, images were taken by polarizing microscopy (${\times}100$) and micro-computed tomography. The results were obtained by observing images of the specimens and the density of the caries lesions was determined. 1.As the lactic acid concentration of the remineralization solutions with pH 4.3 was higher, the surface zone of the carious enamel increased and an isotropic zone of the subsurface lesion was found. However, the total decalcification depth increased at the same time. 2.In the remineralization solutions with pH 6.0, only the surface zone increased slightly but there was no significant change in the total decalcification depth and subsurface zone. In the lactic acid buffer solutions with the lower pH and higher lactic acid concentration, there were dynamic changes at the deep area of the dental carious lesion.