• 제목/요약/키워드: Double Population Model

검색결과 38건 처리시간 0.025초

A Simulation Study of Urban Public Transport Transfer Station Based on Anylogic

  • Liu, Weiwei;Wang, Fu;Zhang, Chennan;Zhang, Jingyu;Wang, Lei
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.1216-1231
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    • 2021
  • With the increase in the population of our cities and the rapid increase in the number of private cars, urban traffic has become more and more congested. At this stage, urban public transportation has become one of the main ways to improve urban traffic congestion. Aiming at the problem of how to improve the basic capacity of buses in multi-line transfer stations, this paper conducts simulation research based on anylogic software. Through micro-simulation analysis of vehicles entering, stopping, and exiting the station, combined with the delay model theory, the vehicle is given Stop organization optimization and station layout improvement methods, so that vehicles can run in the station more stably, smoothly and safely. Case analysis shows that applying this method to the roadside parking problem, the main and auxiliary bus stations have a significant improvement in operating capacity compared with the conventional tandem double bus stations, and the service level of the main and auxiliary bus stations has been significantly improved.

Relationship between Postural Balance Training and Fall Risks for Elderly: a Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

  • Kim, Heesuk;Hwang, Sujin
    • Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2021
  • Objective: Falling is one of main accident to facilitate the physical injuries in order adults. The purpose of the systematic review was to determine the effects of postural balance training whether the recovery of falls in elderly with normal physical function or not throughout summing the selected studies quantitatively. Design: A systematic review Methods: MEDLINE and other four databases were searched up to April 20, 2021 and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating postural balance approaches on fall risks in elderly. The researched studies excluded the double studies, titles and abstract, and finally full-reported study. The selected RCTs studies were extracted characteristics of the studies and summary of results based on PICOS-SD (population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and setting- study design) model to synthesize the papers qualitatively. Results: The review involved 22 RCT reports with 4,847 community older adults aged 65 years or over. Nineteen of the selected RCT studies reported dual or multimodal exercises show the beneficial effect for older adults compared to one-type treatment or no intervention. All of selected showed low risk in the selection, attrition, and reporting bias. However, detection bias showed low risk at 75% records of the involved RCTs and performance bias was low risk at only three records. Conclusions: The results of the systematic review propose that a standardized therapeutic approach and the intensity are needed for improving risk of falls in older adults.

The Effect of Sports Club Membership Lifestyle on Choice Behavior

  • Sunmun Park;Shuo LI
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of sports center members' lifestyles on participation promotion and choice behavior. To this end, more specifically, we intend to establish and clarify a hypothetical model based on the preceding studies of facilitating factors and factors that continue to participate according to the lifestyle of sports center members. In order to achieve this research purpose, the study subjects were set as the population of male and female adults over 20 who are using sports centers in Gwangju Metropolitan City and Jeollanam-do in 2021. As for the sampling method, the sample was extracted using cluster random sampling, and 300 people were used for the actual analysis, excluding 60 copies of double-entry and insincere or unreliable questionnaires. The survey tool was modified and supplemented according to this study based on the questionnaire that had been verified for reliability and validity in previous studies, and all questionnaire items were composed of a 5-point scale. The statistical analysis used for data analysis was frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, reliability analysis, and multiple regression analysis using SPSS Windows 21.0 Version. The conclusions obtained in this study through data analysis by such methods and procedures are as follows. First, according to the lifestyle of sports center members, participation promotion factors were found to have a partial influence. Second, according to the lifestyle of sports center members, the selection behavior was found to have a partial influence. Third, it was found that the participation promotion factors of sports center members partially affected the choice behavior.

WTP를 이용한 다문화가족이 농촌사회에 미치는 다양한 영향 및 기여가치 평가 (Contribution Value Estimation on Rural Community by Multi-cultural Family Effect Using WTP)

  • 양순미
    • 농촌지도와개발
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.701-727
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    • 2013
  • 농촌의 인구활력화, 지역경제 활성화, 농촌의 문화다양성, 농촌 가족사회의 유지, 그리고 농촌자원의 향상과 같은 다문화가족이 농촌사회에 미치는 영향 및 기여가치에 대한 WTP(Willingness to Pay)를 추정하기 위해, 농촌지역 41개 시 군에서 weibull model에 기초한 이중이선선택법으로 조사가 이루어졌다. 이어 추정모형을 개발하고 로지스틱(logistic)을 이용해 WTP를 추정하였다. 추정결과, 다문화가족의 기여가치 유지를 위해 농촌지역민이 평가한 WTP는 458억원이었고, 이것은 개개 농촌가구가 연간 13,840원을 지불할 수 있음을 의미한다. 비교준거로서 다문화가족 남편이 평가한 WTP는 502억원 이었고 이것은 개개 농촌가구가 연간 15,170원을 지불할 수 있음을 의미한다.

국민건강보험 표본코호트 DB를 이용한 건강보험 재정추계 (Financial Projection for National Health Insurance using NHIS Sample Cohort Data Base)

  • 박유성;박혜민;권태연
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.663-683
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    • 2015
  • 저출산과 고령화 등의 인구구조의 변화는 미래 건강보험 재정의 안전성을 위협하고 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 2002년부터 2013년까지 국민건강보험 표본코호트 DB를 이용하여 유병율 및 진료비에 대한 통계적 모형을 추정하고 인구구조와 경제상황의 변화에 대한 다양한 미래 가정들을 반영하여 건강보험 재정의 연도별 수입과 지출을 2060년까지 추계하였다. 지출 추계에는 건강보험공단 표본 코호트 DB를 이용하여 유병율 및 진료비를 추계하였다. 유병율 모형은 VECM-LC모형을 그리고 1인당 공단 부담 진료비에 대한 추계는 이중지수평활법에 근거 하였다. 두 모형 모두를 의료기관별, 질병별, 성별, 연령별로 적합하고 경제상황의 변화에 대한 국회와 정부의 여러 가정들을 반영하여 최종 추계치를 산출하였다. 수입 추계는 고령화 속도에 대한 두 개의 다른 가정에 근거한 두 개의 미래 인구구조를 반영한 두 개의 피부양률 가정에 근거하고, 지출 추계에서와 마찬가지로 경제 상황의 변화에 대한 여러 가지 가정을 반영하여 최종 추계치를 산출하였다. 그 결과 건강보험 재정적자는 2015년 불변가격으로 2030년에는 2030조 원, 2060년에는 4070조 원이 될 것으로 추계되었다.

취업남녀의 시간부족인식과 시간활용: 1999년과 2009년의 생활시간자료 비교 (A Study on Perceived Time Pressure and Time Use: Focusing on the Employed Men and Women in Korea by Using 1999 and 2009 Time Diary Data)

  • 차승은
    • 가족자원경영과 정책
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.131-151
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    • 2011
  • This study attempted to estimate the level of perceived lack of time in Korean society, to link it to time management and to identify the possible association that accounts for time shortage. I employed the gender perspective in order to reveal the dynamics and complexity of the perception of a lack of time in the population. The sample for the study was drawn from the 1999 and 2009 Korean time diary data collected by the Korean National Statistical Office. From the original data, I selected a sample of second shift families(men and women who are presently working and raising children) living in metropolitan areas(including Seoul and six major urban areas in Korea). The dependent variable was time pressure measured by a single-item question on a four-point likert scale. The results of the study showed that working mothers perceived a greater time shortage as compared to working fathers. The time use pattern showed change during the periods, indicating that people worked fewer hours in paid labor and enjoyed more leisure hours and personal care hours. However, on average, people seemed to have experienced a greater time lack in 2009 as compared to 1999. The results from the ordered logistic regression model revealed that even though there were similarities in the impact of relevant factors, men's perception of a lack of time was more closely linked with their work role and social status, while for women, this perception was influenced by work and family duties. This indicates that Korean working mothers and fathers are facing a double jeopardy of time shortage in terms of combining their work and family roles. As a result, the level of time pressure by gender is converging toward a "never enough" phase. These findings generated policy implications and detailed suggestions.

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Biocontrol Potential of a Lytic Bacteriophage PE204 against Bacterial Wilt of Tomato

  • Bae, Ju Young;Wu, Jing;Lee, Hyoung Ju;Jo, Eun Jeong;Murugaiyan, Senthilkumar;Chung, Eunsook;Lee, Seon-Woo
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • 제22권12호
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    • pp.1613-1620
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    • 2012
  • Bacterial wilt caused by Ralstonia solanacearum is a devastating disease of many economically important crops. Since there is no promising control strategy for bacterial wilt, phage therapy could be adopted using virulent phages. We used phage PE204 as a model lytic bacteriophage to investigate its biocontrol potential for bacterial wilt on tomato plants. The phage PE204 has a short-tailed icosahedral structure and double-stranded DNA genome similar to that of the members of Podoviridae. PE204 is stable under a wide range of temperature and pH, and is also stable in the presence of the surfactant Silwet L-77. An artificial soil microcosm (ASM) to study phage stability in soil was adopted to investigate phage viability under a controlled system. Whereas phage showed less stability under elevated temperature in the ASM, the presence of host bacteria helped to maintain a stable phage population. Simultaneous treatment of phage PE204 at $10^8$ PFU/ml with R. solanacearum on tomato rhizosphere completely inhibited bacterial wilt occurrence, and amendment of Silwet L-77 at 0.1% to the phage suspension did not impair the disease control activity of PE204. The biocontrol activities of phage PE204 application onto tomato rhizosphere before or after R. solanacearum inoculation were also investigated. Whereas pretreatment with the phage was not effective in the control of bacterial wilt, post-treatment of PE204 delayed bacterial wilt development. Our results suggested that appropriate application of lytic phages to the plant root system with a surfactant such as Silwet L-77 could be used to control the bacterial wilt of crops.

PCS 네트워크에서 3-레벨 데이터베이스 구조를 위한 효과적인 위치 캐시 기법 (An Efficient Location Cache Scheme for 3-level Database Architecture in PCS Networks)

  • 한연희;송의성;황종선;정영식
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:정보통신
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.253-264
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    • 2002
  • 최근에, 개인 통신 시스템(PCS)에서 증가하는 개인 사용자의 수요에 대처하기 위하여 위치 관리 데이타베이스의 계층적 구조가 제안되어 왔다. 특히, 3-레벨 계층적 데이타베이스 구조는 현재 셀룰러 이동 시스템에 쉽게 적용 가능하며, 이 구조에서는 기존 HLR과 VLR 사이에 새로운 부가적 데이터베이스인 지역 위치 데이타베이스 RLR이 위치한다. 본 논문은 이동단말의 위치 관리를 위한 효과적인 캐시 기법인 이중 T-임계값 위치 캐시 기법을 제안한다. 이 기법은 IS-41과 GS에 적용된 위치 관리 데이타베이스의 2-레벨 구조에 응용할 수 있는 기존 T-임계값 캐시 기법을 확장한 것이다. 제안하는 기법은 2개의 캐시 정보, 즉 현재 피 호출 이동단말을 서비스하고 있는 VLR과 RLR 정보를 함께 이용한다. 이 두개기 캐시 정보를 통하여, 등록 영역(RA)의 지역성과 RLR에 의해 관리되는 영역인 지역 등록 영역(RRA)의 지역성을 동시에 이용할 수 있다. 또한, 제안하는 기법은 두 개의 캐시 정보가 유효한지를 결정하기 위하여 각각에 대응되는 두 개의 임계값을 이용한다. 한편, RRA 상주시간을 모델링하기 위하여, Branching Erlang-$\infty$ 분포를 이용하고, 이것을 이용한 비용 분석은 제안하는 기법이 이동단말의 대부분의 유형에 대하여 네트워크와 데이타베이스 비용을 대폭 감소시킴을 보여준다.

Compressed Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Latecomer

  • Inyong Shin;Hyunho Kim
    • 분석과 대안
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.35-77
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to solve the entangled loop between demographic transition (DT) and economic growth by analyzing cross-country data. We undertake a national-level group analysis to verify the compressed transition of demographic variables over time. Assuming that the LA (latecomer advantage) on DT over time exists, we verify that the DT of the latecomer is compressed by providing a formal proof of LA on DT over income. As a DT has the double-kinked functions of income, we check them in multiple aspects: early maturation, leftward threshold, and steeper descent under a contour map and econometric methods. We find that the developing countries (the latecomer) have speedy DT (CDT, compressed DT) as well as speedy income such that DT of the latecomers starts at lower levels of income, lasts for a shorter period, and finishes at the earlier stage of economic development compared to that of developed countries (the early mover). To check the balance of DT, we classify countries into four groups of DT---balanced, slow, unilateral, and rapid transition countries. We identify that the main causes of rapid transition are due to the strong family planning programs of the government. Finally, we check the effect of latecomer's CDT on economic growth inversely: we undertake the simulation of the CDT effect on economic growth and the aging process for the latecomer. A worrying result is that the CDT of the latecomer shows a sharp upturn of the working-age population, followed by a sharp downturn in a short period. Compared to early-mover countries, the latecomer countries cannot buy more time to accommodate the workable population for the period of demographic bonus and prepare their aging societies for demographic onus. Thus, we conclude that CDT is not necessarily advantageous to developing countries. These outcomes of the latecomer's CDT can be re-interpreted as follows. Developing countries need power sources to pump up economic development, such as the following production factors: labor, physical and financial capital, and economic systems. As for labor, the properties of early maturation and leftward thresholds on DTs of the latecomer mean that demographic movement occurs at an unusually early stage of economic development; this is similar to a plane that leaks fuel before or just before take-off, with the result that it no longer flies higher or farther. What is worse, the property of steeper descent represents the falling speed of a plane so that it cannot be sustained at higher levels, and then plummets to all-time lows.

이행적 인과 경로를 통한 원인 효과에 대한 해명: 구조 방정식에 토대한 인과 모형의 원인 효과 개념에 대한 평가와 대안 (Causal Effects Along Transitive Causal Routes: Reconsidering Two Concepts of Effects Founded on Structural Equation Model)

  • 김준성
    • 논리연구
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.83-133
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    • 2015
  • 이 글에서는 상반된 이중 원인 효과를 해명하는 데 히치콕(Hitchcock 2001a)이 제시한 두 가지 원인 효과를 비판적으로 평가하고 그 비판을 상쇄할 대안을 제시한다. 이를 위해 다섯 가지를 논의한다. 첫째, 상반된 이중 원인 효과에 관한 사례를 소개하고 이에 대한 오테(Otte 1985)와 엘스(Eells 1987)의 논쟁을 검토한다. 이 검토는 이중 원인 효과에 대한 이해와 그와 관련해 논의할 히치콕, 카트라이트(Cartwright 1979, 1989, 1995), 엘스(Eells 1991, 1995)의 이론들을 비교, 평가하는 준비가 된다. 둘째, 구조 방정식 모형에서 두 원인 효과에 착안하여, 히치콕이 제시한 원인 효과의 두 개념, 망 효과와 요소 효과를 소개한다. 셋째, 이중 원인 효과를 해명하는 데 카트라이트와 엘스의 논쟁을 논의하면서, 동질적 부분 집단의 역할, 인과 상호 작용의 중요성에 주목한다. 넷째, 이중 원인 효과를 해명하는 데 히치콕이 적용한 두 원인 효과 개념을 비판적으로 검토하고, 엘스의 이론에 대한 히치콕의 비판을 다시 비판한다. 다섯째, 구조 방정식 모형의 조절 효과 개념을 인과에 대한 확률 이론에 응용하여, 이중 원인 효과에서 초래된 인과 상호 작용을 선언(disjunctive) 관계와 반 사실적 요인으로 형식화하여 보여준다. 조절 효과에 대한 논의는 최근에 많은 주목을 받은 구조 방정식 모형에 토대한 인과 모형 이론들이 인과의 문제들을 해결하는 데 기여할 수 있다. 다른 한편으로, 선언 관계, 반 사실적 조건을 이용한 인과 상호 작용에 대한 논의는 통계적 방법론으로서 구조 방정식 모형을 제고하는 데 도움을 줄 수 있다.

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