• 자원환경지질
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• 제41권5호
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• pp.509-516
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• 2008

지역단위 수요를 분석할 수 있는 자료상의 요건은 수요량에 관한 것이다. 분석하고자 하는 지역의 수요량을 파악해야 수요를 분석할 수 있는데, 현실적으로 모든 수요량을 파악한다는 것은 곤란하다. 이러한 이유로 대부분의 지역단위 수요량 조사는 광석수요량, 금속괴 수요량 등 특정 단계의 거래량을 이용하게 된다. 그러나 이는 수입된 최종제품의 부분품으로서 금속자원 수요량이나 다른 단계의 제품으로 수입된 수요량은 고려하지 않은 해당 금속자원의 수요량 중 일부분에 해당되는 것이다. 이와 같은 자료상의 한계를 인식하여, 본 연구는 국내 금속괴의 수요를 분석함에 있어 개념적으로 이분하여 국내사용을 목적으로 하는 수요와 국외사용을 목적으로 하는 수요로 구분하였다. 국내사용을 목적으로 하는 수요는 국내의 경제, 기술 등 요인에 따라, 그리고 국외사용을 목적으로 하는 수요는 국외 소득변화가 우리 경제에 영향을 주는 정도에 따라 변화하는 양상을 보일 것이다. 이를 근거로 사용강도(intensity of use)의 가설을 도입하여 국내 동괴, 연괴, 아연괴의 수요를 모형화하고 실증분석하였으며 유의한 결과를 도출했다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.83-111
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• 2021

This paper conducts a Structural Dcomposition Analysis on the structure of factors contributing to the output growth of Korean Maritime and Port Industry during year 2000~ year 2017. Some of results are as follows. The output growth rates of the industry (yearly average 4.3%) was far lower than the average growth rates of Service as well as of Manufacturing Industries (yearly average 9% and 6.8%, respectively) due to the lower output growth of Maritime Industry. Among the growth contributing factors, change in domestic demand for final goods is the first contributing factor, and then change in technology, change in export and import substitution for intermediate goods are followed in order, but import substitution for final goods decreased its output. However, in each respective sub-periods of pre-global financial crisis and post-global financial crisis, change in the export, especially change in the export of Maritime Industry is the dominant determinant of output change in the Maritime and Port Industry in opposite ways. In the periods of the former the increase in the export of Maritime Industry overwhelmingly led the output growth of the Maritime and Port industry, but in the periods of the latter the decrease in its export was the culprit of lower output growth of the industry. On the other hand, among all industries of service and manufacturing sectors, Wholesale and Retail industry is the leading industry in contributing to the output growth of the Maritime and Port Industry, and Transportation Equipment industry is the leading industry among all manufacturing industries.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.147-175
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• 2006

One of the biggest problems of Korean economy is polarization of firms for export and domestic demand and that of conglomerates and SME's achievement. One of the culprits lies weakness of intermediate industry such as machine tool. Since intermediate industry is important path where export performance affects domestic demand and whose actor usually is SMEs with high spill over effect in labor market. Especially, intermediate industry Is vulnerable because of industrial policy biased In backward linkage effect. However if a country fails to develop intermediate industry above some critical point, that country would fall in low-tech equilibrium without growth. In case of benign circle where final goods industry growth leads growth of intermediate industry and again it leads that of final goods industry, it can reach high-tech equilibrium. By contrast, in opposite case where in industrialization latecomer fails to link industries likewise above some critical point that country would fall in low-tech equilibrium without growth. Moreover, for several reasons, machine tool firms of Korea have difficulty in catching up technology above critical point. Firstly. Conglomerate demander neglects their product. Secondly, even after success of development overcoming difficulties they fail to get market share for response of dumping of foreign competitors. And the last one is patent litigation of foreign competitors that incapacitate the technology development. For these, Korean machine tool firms fell in 'middle-income country trap' itself, since they stuck in some extent when they technologically catch up. Consequently, for latecomer country in machine tool industry to leapfrog meaningfully policy support is necessary, Weak intermediate industry does not Induce domestic firms and remained fragile. Therefore, localization, policy should reflect condition of technological catch up more than before, in order to be effective and fruitful. There should be turning point over relationship between conglomerates, major demander of machine tool and SME's, for only with active purchasing of conglomerate Korean machine industry can grow.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.156-156
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• 2022

Explicitly spatially distributed and reliable data on industrial water demand is very much important for both policy makers and researchers in order to carry a region-specific analysis of water resources management. However, such type of data remains scarce particularly in underdeveloped and developing countries. Current research is limited in using different spatially available socio-economic, climate data and geographical data from different sources in accordance to predict industrial water demand at finer resolution. This study proposes a random forest regression (RFR) model to predict the industrial water demand at 0.50× 0.50 spatial resolution by combining various features extracted from multiple data sources. The dataset used here include National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP)/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night-time light (NTL), Global Power Plant database, AQUASTAT country-wise industrial water use data, Elevation data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Road density, Crop land, Population, Precipitation, Temperature, and Aridity. Compared with traditional regression algorithms, RF shows the advantages of high prediction accuracy, not requiring assumptions of a prior probability distribution, and the capacity to analyses variable importance. The final RF model was fitted using the parameter settings of ntree = 300 and mtry = 2. As a result, determinate coefficients value of 0.547 is achieved. The variable importance of the independent variables e.g. night light data, elevation data, GDP and population data used in the training purpose of RF model plays the major role in predicting the industrial water demand.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제17권10호
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• pp.598-615
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• 2017

2000년~2011년 동안 제조업의 생산액 변화에 기여한 요인과 요인별 기여도를 투입산출 구조분해분석으로 한국과 일본 간에 비교하였다. 분석결과에 따르면, 제조업 생산 증가에 가장 크게 기여한 요인은 한국의 경우 수출인 반면에 일본에서는 기술변화이다. 한국 제조업 생산 증가에 대한 기술변화의 기여도는 상대적으로 미미하며 감소하고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 한편, 국내최종수요는 한국에서는 수출에 이어 제조업 생산 증가의 두 번째 기여요인인 반면에 일본에서는 제조업 생산 감소의 가장 큰 기여요인이다. 특히, 두 국가 모두에서 중간재와 최종재의 국산화율은 감소하여 제조업 생산 위축의 주요 요인으로 작용하였다. 결과적으로 한국 제조업의 수출의존적 성장을 재확인하였으며, 이러한 수출의존도가 강화되고 있음도 확인하였다. 하지만, 과도한 수출의존도는 점점 심화되고 있는 세계경제 변동성과 불확실성을 고려할 때 한편으로는 한국 제조업의 지속적 성장에 장애요인이 될 수도 있음을 의미한다. 따라서 모든 기여요인이 균형적으로 성장에 기여하는 것이 중요하며, 특히, 상대적으로 저조한 것으로 분석된 기술변화의 기여도를 높이기 위한 연구개발 및 기술혁신 강화와 중간재 및 최종재의 국산화율 높이기 위한 노력이 더 요구되는 정책적 시사점이 있다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.495-513
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• 2001

We investigate a practical method of calculating the impact of multiple domestic energy price change on the final demand, production, the export and import change, the change in the balance of payment of Korean economy. By combining an existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with the traditional input-output analysis with two additional assumptions on the price behavior, we provide a cost-effective method of analyzing the impact of multiple energy price changes on the domestic economy. The energy price shock we used in this paper is 0.127% increase weighted by the sectoral productions. The total impacts on price level and GDP are 1.258% and -0.940%, respectively. The impact on the total output (GDP and intermediate goods) is about -1.580%.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.189-196
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• 2008

This paper proposes a way of designing of a global logistics system for "the international cooperative global complementary production system" (ICGCPS) constructed in ASEAN region. ICGCPS is a global production system with several production bases located in a number of countries. In order to assemble the final products and sell them in the domestic market, each production base produces only special kinds of components and parts with the total demand required all the participating countries, and supplies them to the other production bases each other. In the ICGCPS, there are a number of important decision-making problems such as identifying which countries are suitable to produce specified components and parts, and deciding how to transport components and parts between the production bases. In the initial period of this system, each production base focused on its domestic market so that the final products it produced were sold only in the country where the base was located. Recently, some production bases have expanded sales to overseas markets. Taking this fact into account, we propose a production and transportation planning model in this paper that takes into account the export quantity of the final products, formulating it into a mathematical programming problem. Using this, we propose a way for managing the supply chain processes of the ICGCPS in order to improve performance measurements such as the total lead-time, the inventory quantity at the depot and the average rate of loading. A numerical example is presented to clarify the procedure proposed in this paper.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.39-48
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• 2021

This study was conducted to suggest a direction in which safety managers can concentrate on industrial accident prevention and safety management for the organization. The job resources of safety managers were divided into organizational and individual levels, and the magnitude of the impact on organizational commitment was compared. Furthermore, job demands were classified into environmental risk factors and personal psychological factors to confirm their effect on organizational commitment. The moderating effect of job resources and sub-factors of the variable in the relationship between job demands and organizational commitment was verified. In this study, a questionnaire survey was conducted on 193 safety managers in the domestic electric construction business, data were collected, and a questionnaire of 180 people was used for the final analysis. Based on the results, organization-level resources among the sub-factors of job resources and individual psychological factors among the sub-factors of job demand had a more significant influence on organizational commitment. In the relationship between job resources and organizational commitment, the moderating effect of job demand was verified, confirming that job demand had a negative moderating effect. Individual psychological factors had a modulating effect, whereas environmental factors did not. The significance, implications, and limitations of this study are discussed based on the research results.

• 경제분석
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.65-97
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• 2020

본 논문의 목적은 우리나라 수출의 고용파급효과와 그 변화 요인을 상세히 분석하는 데 있다. 이를 위해 가장 최근에 공표된 World Input-Output Database (WIOD)의 2000년부터 2014년까지의 세계산업연관표와 사회경제계정을 이용하여 다지역산업연관 및 구조적 요인 분해 분석을 실시하였다. 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 우리나라 수출에 체화된 고용은 지속적으로 증가하였고, 우리나라 고용의 수출 의존도 역시 상승 추세를 보였다. 그러나 부가가치 수출의 고용유발계수는 전반적으로 하락하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 우리나라 수출에 체화된 고용의 상당 부분은 중국, 미국, RoW(Rest of the World)의 최종수요에 기인한 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 우리나라 수출에 체화된 고용의 증대에 가장 큰 영향을 준 요인은 해외 최종수요의 변화 요인이었다. 이러한 실증분석 결과에 기초하여 우리나라의 국내 고용 확대를 위한 의미 있는 정책적 시사점을 논의하였다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제34권7호
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• pp.587-594
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• 2010

The positive and negative opinion to cargo demand of Incheon's SAMT in the near future remains cloudy. Considering port and shipping environmental changes and the logistics situation of China which explains the lack of facilities in Chinese airports, the creating of SAMT cargoes of the Incheon region could catches a favorable opportunity to be a logistics hub in the North-East Asia. On the other hand, as open-sky policy and direct-call service has been carried out between China and N.A.(North America), Incheon could cause a loss of competitiveness in SAMT because the enhancement in the aspect of the connectivity of Chinese airlines and shipping lines makes customer sent to last destination their cargoes whenever they want. In the same context, this paper analyses on conditions of domestic and international SAMT and proposes in this uncertainty future forecasting of SAMT of Incheon by scenario planning according to changes in integrated SAMT, measuring the likelihood of final scenario. This study shows the Sea & Air multi-transport volume will have either slight increase or decrease from the current condition. Consequently, RFS expansion and system & service improvement through strong ties with major cities in China will be required in a short run aspect. Nonetheless, we also need to take domestic & international transportation environment into account in the long run.