• Title/Summary/Keyword: Discrete-Time Model

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Potential Impact of Timber Supply and Fuel-Wood on the Atmospheric Carbon Mitigation : A Carbon Cycle Modeling Approach (목재공급과 연료용 목재가 대기에 축적된 탄소저감에 미치는 잠재적 영향 : 탄소순환모형 접근법)

  • Lyon, Kenneth S.;Lee, Dug Man
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.597-632
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    • 2010
  • There is general agreement that global warming is occurring and that the main contributor to this probably is the buildup of green house gasses, GHG, in the atmosphere. Two main contributors are the utilization of fossil fuels and the deforestation of many regions of the world. The burning of fossil fuels increases atmospheric carbon while the burning of fuel-wood reducing fossil fuel consumption along with its forest source maintain an atmospheric carbon level. The standing timber in the forests is a carbon sink, as are wood buildings and structures, and fossil fuel in the ground. This paper is designed to examine a number of current issues related to mitigating the global warming problem through forestry. For this purpose, we develop a modeling approach by integrating timber market, fossil fuel market and carbon cycling model. We use discrete time optimal control theory to identify optimal time paths, the laws of motion, and stationary stats solutions of endogenous variables in the model. On the basis of these results, we identify the optimal amounts of subsidies to be provided or taxes to be imposed by the regulatory agency to mitigate atmospheric carbon accumulation. We also present a numerical example to help illustrate the characteristics of variables in the model when the social cost for atmospheric carbon incrementally shifts upward. A surprising result is that the social cost function for atmospheric carbon has a very smaller impact on the optimal rotation period than previous literature suggested.

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Total Dynamic Analysis of Deep-Seabed Integrated Mining System (심해저 광물자원 채광시스템의 통합거동 해석)

  • Kim, Hyung-Woo;Hong, Sup;Lee, Chang-Ho;Choi, Jong-Su;Yeu, Tae-Kyeong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.195-203
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    • 2010
  • This paper concerns about total dynamic analysis of integrated mining system. This system consists of vertical steel pipe, intermediate buffer station, flexible pipe and self-propelled miner. The self-propelled miner and buffer are assumed as rigid-body of 6-dof. Discrete models of vertical steel pipe and flexible pipe are adopted, which are obtained by means of lumped-parameter method. The motion of mining vessel is not considered. Instead, the motion of mining vessel is taken into account in form of various boundary conditions (e.g. forced excitation in slow motion and/or fast oscillation and so on). A terramechanics model of extremely cohesive soft soil is applied to the self-propelled miner. Hinged and ball constraints are used to define the connections between sub-systems (vertical steel pipe, buffer, flexible pipe, self-propelled miner). Equations of motion of the coupled model are derived with respect to the each local coordinates system. Four Euler parameters are used to express the orientations of the sub-systems. To solve the equations of motion of the total dynamic model, an incremental-iterative formulation is employed. Newmark-${\beta}$ method is used for time-domain integration. The total dynamic responses of integrated mining system are investigated.

Analysis of the Elderly Travel Characteristics and Travel Behavior with Daily Activity Schedules (the Case of Seoul, Korea) (활동 스케줄 분석을 통한 고령자의 통행특성과 통행행태에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Eon;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok;Kim, Sun-Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.89-108
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    • 2006
  • Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.

Wavelet Thresholding Techniques to Support Multi-Scale Decomposition for Financial Forecasting Systems

  • Shin, Taeksoo;Han, Ingoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1999
  • Detecting the features of significant patterns from their own historical data is so much crucial to good performance specially in time-series forecasting. Recently, a new data filtering method (or multi-scale decomposition) such as wavelet analysis is considered more useful for handling the time-series that contain strong quasi-cyclical components than other methods. The reason is that wavelet analysis theoretically makes much better local information according to different time intervals from the filtered data. Wavelets can process information effectively at different scales. This implies inherent support fer multiresolution analysis, which correlates with time series that exhibit self-similar behavior across different time scales. The specific local properties of wavelets can for example be particularly useful to describe signals with sharp spiky, discontinuous or fractal structure in financial markets based on chaos theory and also allows the removal of noise-dependent high frequencies, while conserving the signal bearing high frequency terms of the signal. To date, the existing studies related to wavelet analysis are increasingly being applied to many different fields. In this study, we focus on several wavelet thresholding criteria or techniques to support multi-signal decomposition methods for financial time series forecasting and apply to forecast Korean Won / U.S. Dollar currency market as a case study. One of the most important problems that has to be solved with the application of the filtering is the correct choice of the filter types and the filter parameters. If the threshold is too small or too large then the wavelet shrinkage estimator will tend to overfit or underfit the data. It is often selected arbitrarily or by adopting a certain theoretical or statistical criteria. Recently, new and versatile techniques have been introduced related to that problem. Our study is to analyze thresholding or filtering methods based on wavelet analysis that use multi-signal decomposition algorithms within the neural network architectures specially in complex financial markets. Secondly, through the comparison with different filtering techniques' results we introduce the present different filtering criteria of wavelet analysis to support the neural network learning optimization and analyze the critical issues related to the optimal filter design problems in wavelet analysis. That is, those issues include finding the optimal filter parameter to extract significant input features for the forecasting model. Finally, from existing theory or experimental viewpoint concerning the criteria of wavelets thresholding parameters we propose the design of the optimal wavelet for representing a given signal useful in forecasting models, specially a well known neural network models.

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Wavelet Thresholding Techniques to Support Multi-Scale Decomposition for Financial Forecasting Systems

  • Shin, Taek-Soo;Han, In-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 1999.03a
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1999
  • Detecting the features of significant patterns from their own historical data is so much crucial to good performance specially in time-series forecasting. Recently, a new data filtering method (or multi-scale decomposition) such as wavelet analysis is considered more useful for handling the time-series that contain strong quasi-cyclical components than other methods. The reason is that wavelet analysis theoretically makes much better local information according to different time intervals from the filtered data. Wavelets can process information effectively at different scales. This implies inherent support for multiresolution analysis, which correlates with time series that exhibit self-similar behavior across different time scales. The specific local properties of wavelets can for example be particularly useful to describe signals with sharp spiky, discontinuous or fractal structure in financial markets based on chaos theory and also allows the removal of noise-dependent high frequencies, while conserving the signal bearing high frequency terms of the signal. To data, the existing studies related to wavelet analysis are increasingly being applied to many different fields. In this study, we focus on several wavelet thresholding criteria or techniques to support multi-signal decomposition methods for financial time series forecasting and apply to forecast Korean Won / U.S. Dollar currency market as a case study. One of the most important problems that has to be solved with the application of the filtering is the correct choice of the filter types and the filter parameters. If the threshold is too small or too large then the wavelet shrinkage estimator will tend to overfit or underfit the data. It is often selected arbitrarily or by adopting a certain theoretical or statistical criteria. Recently, new and versatile techniques have been introduced related to that problem. Our study is to analyze thresholding or filtering methods based on wavelet analysis that use multi-signal decomposition algorithms within the neural network architectures specially in complex financial markets. Secondly, through the comparison with different filtering techniques results we introduce the present different filtering criteria of wavelet analysis to support the neural network learning optimization and analyze the critical issues related to the optimal filter design problems in wavelet analysis. That is, those issues include finding the optimal filter parameter to extract significant input features for the forecasting model. Finally, from existing theory or experimental viewpoint concerning the criteria of wavelets thresholding parameters we propose the design of the optimal wavelet for representing a given signal useful in forecasting models, specially a well known neural network models.

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Study on Driving Simulation of Spoke-type Shield TBM Considering Operation Conditions (TBM 운전조건을 고려한 스포크형 쉴드TBM의 굴진모사 연구)

  • Choi, Soon-Wook;Lee, Hyobum;Choi, Hangseok;Chang, Soo-Ho;Kang, Tae-Ho;Lee, Chulho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.456-467
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the discrete element method was used to simulate the excavation of spoke-type shield TBM. The horizontal stress coefficient was used for the ground to simulate the increase of the horizontal stress according to the depth, and the driving conditions were set based on the torque generated from the cutterhead of the TBM to excavate within the operating range. That is, when the value of the torque generated at the cutterhead exceeds the given operating condition, the speed of excavation is constantly reduced, and conversely, the method of increasing the speed of excavation is considered. The change speed of the excavation was given the minimum change requirement in consideration of the driver's review time, and the change was possible according to the excavation conditions. In order to use these conditions, the user-subroutine was considered separately, and the results show that the DEM model were able to analyze the excavation within the considered operating range.

Modeling and analysis of dynamic heat transfer in the cable penetration fire stop system by using a new hybrid algorithm (새로운 혼합알고리즘을 이용한 CPFS 내에서의 일어나는 동적 열전달의 수식화 및 해석)

  • Yoon En Sup;Yun Jongpil;Kwon Seong-Pil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.4 s.21
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2003
  • In this work dynamic heat transfer in a CPFS (cable penetration fire stop) system built in the firewall of nuclear power plants is three-dimensionally investigated to develop a test-simulator that can be used to verify effectiveness of the sealant. Dynamic heat transfer in the fire stop system is formulated in a parabolic PDE (partial differential equation) subjected to a set of initial and boundary conditions. First, the PDE model is divided into two parts; one corresponding to heat transfer in the axial direction and the other corresponding to heat transfer on the vertical planes. The first PDE is converted to a series of ODEs (ordinary differential equations) at finite discrete axial points for applying the numerical method of SOR (successive over-relaxation) to the problem. The ODEs are solved by using an ODE solver In such manner, the axial heat flux can be calculated at least at the finite discrete points. After that, all the planes are separated into finite elements, where the time and spatial functions are assumed to be of orthogonal collocation state at each element. The initial condition of each finite element can be obtained from the above solution. The heat fluxes on the vertical planes are calculated by the Galerkin FEM (finite element method). The CPFS system was modeled, simulated, and analyzed here. The simulation results were illustrated in three-dimensional graphics. Through simulation, it was shown clearly that the temperature distribution was influenced very much by the number, position, and temperature of the cable stream, and that dynamic heat transfer through the cable stream was one of the most dominant factors, and that the feature of heat conduction could be understood as an unsteady-state process.

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The Effect of Technology-Based Entrepreneurship(TBE) Activities on Firms Growth (기술기반창업기업의 기업활동이 기업성장에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Myung-Jong;Joo, Youngjn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.59-76
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    • 2019
  • Most technology-based entrepreneurship(TBE) go through an process of decline or disappear without overcoming the valley of death(VoD). The purpose of this study is to identify the growth dimension of TBE and to test the influence of firms activities on firms growth over time. This study identified the two-dimensional growth dimension divided by size and profit through exploratory factor analysis(EFA) of a number of growth indicators. Then, we defined the discrete state of growth firm in four states, divided by size and profit, and five states, including the closure of business. Multi-nomial logit model is used to predict the effect of TBE activities on a discrete state of growth firm(size×profit, closure of business) based on multiple independent variables. The independent variables are based on five representative firms activities: employment, marketing, R&D, financial activities, and general management activities. The growth stage of TBE over time has been categorized into three stages: early stage, middle stage, and late stage of business, taking into account the main periods during which the survival rate of startups sharply decreases. The analytical data of this study was based on the secondary data of the start-up supporting companies of government and public institutions. The subjects of analysis were TBE within 10 years. As a result of the empirical analysis, the employment and marketing activities of TBE show that early and mid-term activities had an effect on the state of firms growth. However, if there is a difference, employment activities have both positive and negative effects, while marketing activities have only a positive effect on size and profit growth. And besides, R&D activities, financial activities, and general management activities throughout the entire process of firms growth were found to be firms activities that have both positive and negative effects on firms growth. In addition, the age of the founder, the firms' industry, and the geographic location of the firms, which are general characteristics of the company, were found to have a distinctive effect on the growth status of the firms according to the growth stage.

Alternative Evaluation Model for Tower Crane Operation Plan in Modular Construction - Focusing on Modular Unit Installation and Finishing works - (모듈러 건축 타워크레인 운용 계획의 대안 평가 모델 - 유닛 설치 및 마감공사를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Joo Ho;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Hyun, Hosang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2018
  • Recently, modular construction method has been widely applied to projects with repetitive processes including dormitory, the residential facility, and the hotel construction due to reduced labor input and shortened construction schedule. Generally, about 40% of total on-site construction cost excluding unit installation cost, is put on exterior finishing work, and thus management of finishing work is deemed important in maintaining the targeted schedule and cost. Since limited equipment is shared so that subsequent activities are not affected while carrying out on-site installation and finishing work, lifting plan becomes more important for modular projects with greater portion of finishing work load. In this regard, tower crane operation plan may take the form of a single cycle or multiple cycles in which equipment efficiency can be affected. However, difficulties exist in evaluating alternatives to tower crane operation plans supporting unit installation and finishing work. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the alternative of tower crane operation method according to the cyclic period setting in modular building site to determine the effect on T/C uptime and process by parameterizing lifting time for unit and exterior finishing material, lift cycle for unit and exterior finishing material and time required for finishing work. Accordingly, this study develops a simulation model that can increase the tower crane efficiency by controlling the work speed. An academic contribution of this study is to suggest a resource leveling method applying the concept of lifting cycle, and further is expected to be managerially used as a basis for an alternative evaluation of equipment plan.

Numerical investigation of the impact of geological discontinuities on the propagation of ground vibrations

  • Haghnejad, Ali;Ahangari, Kaveh;Moarefvand, Parviz;Goshtasbi, Kamran
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.545-552
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    • 2018
  • Blast-induced ground vibrations by a significant amount of explosives may cause many problems for mining slope stability. Geological discontinuities have a significant influence on the transmission of dynamic pressure of detonation and according to their position relative to the slope face may have damaging or useful impacts on the slope stability. In this study, the effect of geological discontinuities was investigated by modelling a slope with geological discontinuities through applying the dynamic pressure in three-dimensional discrete element code (3DEC). The geological discontinuities in four states that generally apperceived in mine slopes are considered. Given the advantages of the pressure decay function defined by some researcher, this type of function was used to develop the pressure-time profile. The peak particle velocities (PPV) values were monitored along an axis by utilization of Fish programming language and the results were used as an indicator to measure the effects. As shown in the discontinuity-free model, PPV empirical models are reliable in rocks lacking discontinuities or tightly jointed rock masses. According to the other results, the empirical models cannot be used for the case where the rock mass contains discontinuities with any direction or dip. With regard to PPVs, when the direction of discontinuities is opposite to that of the slope face, the dynamic pressure of detonation is significantly damped toward the slope direction at the surface of discontinuities. On the other hand, when the discontinuities are horizontal, the dynamic pressure of detonation affects the rock mass to a large distance.