• Title/Summary/Keyword: Differential Risk

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Differential Privacy in Practice

  • Nguyen, Hiep H.;Kim, Jong;Kim, Yoonho
    • Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2013
  • We briefly review the problem of statistical disclosure control under differential privacy model, which entails a formal and ad omnia privacy guarantee separating the utility of the database and the risk due to individual participation. It has born fruitful results over the past ten years, both in theoretical connections to other fields and in practical applications to real-life datasets. Promises of differential privacy help to relieve concerns of privacy loss, which hinder the release of community-valuable data. This paper covers main ideas behind differential privacy, its interactive versus non-interactive settings, perturbation mechanisms, and typical applications found in recent research.

Average performance of risk-sensitive controlled orbiting satellite and three-degree-of-freedom structure

  • Won, Chang-Hee
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1995.10a
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    • pp.444-447
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    • 1995
  • The satellite in a circular orbit about a planet with disturbances and a three-degree-of-freedom (3DOF) structure under seismic excitations are modeled by the linear stochastic differential equations. Then the risk-sensitive optimal control method is applied to those equations. The mean and the variance of the cost function varies with respect to the risk-sensitivity parameter, .gamma.$_{RS}$ . For a particular risk-sensitivity parameter value, risk-sensitive control reduces to LQG control. Furthermore, the derivation of the mean square value of the state and control action are given for a finite-horizon full-state-feedback risk-sensitive control system. The risk-sensitive controller outperforms a classical LQG controller in the mean square sense of the state and the control action.

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A Study on the Long-Run Consumption Risk in Foreign Currency Risk Premia (장기소비 위험을 이용한 통화포트폴리오 수익률에 관한 연구)

  • Liu, Won-Suk;Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R2, relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R2, relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

A Study on Synthetic Data Generation Based Safe Differentially Private GAN (차분 프라이버시를 만족하는 안전한 GAN 기반 재현 데이터 생성 기술 연구)

  • Kang, Junyoung;Jeong, Sooyong;Hong, Dowon;Seo, Changho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.945-956
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    • 2020
  • The publication of data is essential in order to receive high quality services from many applications. However, if the original data is published as it is, there is a risk that sensitive information (political tendency, disease, ets.) may reveal. Therefore, many research have been proposed, not the original data but the synthetic data generating and publishing to privacy preserve. but, there is a risk of privacy leakage still even if simply generate and publish the synthetic data by various attacks (linkage attack, inference attack, etc.). In this paper, we propose a synthetic data generation algorithm in which privacy preserved by applying differential privacy the latest privacy protection technique to GAN, which is drawing attention as a synthetic data generative model in order to prevent the leakage of such sensitive information. The generative model used CGAN for efficient learning of labeled data, and applied Rényi differential privacy, which is relaxation of differential privacy, considering the utility aspects of the data. And validation of the utility of the generated data is conducted and compared through various classifiers.

Stationary analysis of the surplus process in a risk model with investments

  • Lee, Eui Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.915-920
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    • 2014
  • We consider a continuous time surplus process with investments the sizes of which are independent and identically distributed. It is assumed that an investment of the surplus to other business is made, if and only if the surplus reaches a given sufficient level. We establish an integro-differential equation for the distribution function of the surplus and solve the equation to obtain the moment generating function for the stationary distribution of the surplus. As a consequence, we obtain the first and second moments of the level of the surplus in an infinite horizon.

Ruin Probabilities in a Risk Model with Two Types of Claims

  • Han, Ji-Yeon;Choi, Seung-Kyoung;Lee, Eui-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.813-820
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    • 2012
  • A surplus process with two types of claims is considered, where Type I claims occur more frequently, however, their sizes are smaller stochastically than Type II claims. The ruin probabilities of the surplus caused by each type of claim are obtained by establishing integro-differential equations for the ruin probabilities. The formulas of the ruin probabilities contain an infinite sum and convolutions that make the formulas hard to be applicable in practice; subsequently, we obtain explicit formulas for the ruin probabilities when the sizes of both types of claims are exponentially distributed. Finally, we show through a numerical example, that Type II claims have more impact on the ruin probability of the surplus than Type I claims.

Asset Pricing in the Presence of Taxes: An Empirical Investigation Using the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Term Structure Model Under Differential Tax Regimes

  • Lekvin Brent J.;Suchanek Gerry L.
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.171-211
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    • 1995
  • Relatively little is known about the relationship between taxes and asset prices. Differential tax treatment of assets in the same risk class implies differential pricing. Conversely, the ability of tax-exempt investors to engage in tax arbitrage should drive any pricing differences away. The differential tax treatment of classes of US Treasury securities provides a straightforward setting for the examination of possible tax-effects in asset prices. Using the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Term Structure Model as our framework, we examine the pricing of US Treasury securities over two distinct tax regimes. Evidence that tax effects are not arbitraged away is presented.

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Probability Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach (위험도 기반 접근법에 의한 선박 복원성의 확률 예측)

  • Long, Zhan-Jun;Jeong, Jae-Hun;Moon, Byung-Young
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.42-47
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    • 2013
  • Ship stability prediction is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading. Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of ship stability. The survival probability of ships encountering with different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

The Ruin Probability in a Risk Model with Injections (재충전이 있는 연속시간 리스크 모형에서 파산확률 연구)

  • Go, Han-Na;Choi, Seung-Kyoung;Lee, Eui-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2012
  • A continuous time risk model is considered, where the premium rate is constant and the claims form a compound Poisson process. We assume that an injection is made, which is an immediate increase of the surplus up to level u > 0 (initial level), when the level of the surplus goes below ${\tau}$(0 < ${\tau}$ < u). We derive the formula of the ruin probability of the surplus by establishing an integro-differential equation and show that an explicit formula for the ruin probability can be obtained when the amounts of claims independently follow an exponential distribution.

Comparative Evaluation of the Risk of Malignancy Index Scoring Systems (1-4) Used in Differential Diagnosis of Adnexal Masses

  • Ozbay, Pelin Ozun;Ekinci, Tekin;Caltekin, Melike Demir;Yilmaz, Hasan Taylan;Temur, Muzaffer;Yilmaz, Ozgur;Uysal, Selda;Demirel, Emine;Kelekci, Sefa
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.345-349
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    • 2015
  • Background: To determine the cut-off values of the preoperative risk of malignancy index (RMI) used in differentiating benign or malignant adnexal masses and to determine their significance in differential diagnosis by comparison of different systems. Materials and Methods: 191 operated women were assessed retrospectively. RMI of 1, 2, 3 and 4; cut-off values for an effective benign or malignant differentiation together with sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values were calculated. Results: Cut-off value for RMI 1 was found to be 250; there was significant (p<0.001) compatibility at this level with sensitivity of 60%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 75%, specificity of 93%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 88% and an overall compliance rate of 85%. When RMI 2 and 3 was obtained with a cut-off value of 200, there was significant (p<0.001) compatibility at this level for RMI 2 with sensitivity of 67%, PPV of 67%, specificity of 89%, NPV of 89%, histopathologic correlation of 84% while RMI 3 had significant (p<0.001) compatibility at the same level with sensitivity of 63%, PPV of 69%, specificity of 91%, NPV of 88% and a histopathologic correlation of 84%. Significant (p<0.001) compatibility for RMI 4 with a sensitivity of 67%, PPV of 73%, specificity of 92%, NPV of 89% and a histopathologic correlation of 86% was obtained at the cut-off level 400. Conclusions: RMI have a significant predictability in differentiating benign and malignant adnexal masses, thus can effectively be used in clinical practice.