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http://dx.doi.org/10.5293/kfma.2013.16.2.042

Probability Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach  

Long, Zhan-Jun (부산대학교 대학원)
Jeong, Jae-Hun (부산대학교 대학원)
Moon, Byung-Young (군산대학교 조선공학과)
Publication Information
The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery / v.16, no.2, 2013 , pp. 42-47 More about this Journal
Abstract
Ship stability prediction is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading. Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of ship stability. The survival probability of ships encountering with different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.
Keywords
Risk analysis; Ship stability; Capsizing; Safe basin; Survival probability; Nonlinear dynamics;
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