• 제목/요약/키워드: Delphi-technique

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델파이 기술예측의 타당성과 신뢰성 분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Analysis of Validity and Reliability of the Delphi Forecasting in Korea)

  • 권성훈;홍순기
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.97-117
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    • 2009
  • 델파이는 전문가의 의견에 기초하여 미래를 예측하는 방법이다. 텔파이가 얼마나 타당하고 신뢰할 수 있는지를 검토하는 것은 중요하다. 이 논문에서는 우리나라의 IT와 BT 분야의 델파이 조사의 정확도와 정밀도를 분석하고, 그 관계에 대해 논의한다. 분석 결과, 예측결과의 정확도와 정밀도는 그 분야와 전문도에 따라 일부 차이를 보였다. 또한, 전문도가 높은 응답의 경우, 예측결과의 정확도와 정밀도 간의 유의한 상관관계가 발견되었다. 이 결과는 예측의 정밀도가 정확도를 판단하는 하나의 기준이 될 수 있음을 의미한다.

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델파이 기법과 AHP를 이용한 중력식 사방댐 준설 평가지표 및 조사야장 개발 (Development of Indicators for Dredging Evaluation and Form on Erosion Control Dam Using the Delphi Technique and AHP Analysis)

  • 서준표;이창우;우충식;이헌호
    • 한국환경복원기술학회지
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2014
  • A dredging on erosion control dam has been enforced without evaluation the factors that affect the dredging. In addition, there is the negative effect much more than positive effect by dredging on erosion control dam. Therefore, this study was carried out to develop evaluation indicators and to suggest fieldbook in order to determine whether sand deposits at erosion control dam should be dredged up or not. The most important six evaluation indicators that can decide to dredge up at erosion control dam were obtained from three round delphi technique and were selected in the following order: the current sand deposit ratio(0.339), existence of cultivated land and house downstream(0.276), the slope of streambed(0.162), the amount of movable soil and gravel(0.118), the history of any disasters(0.063), the basin area(0.043). The weighted score for each evaluation indicator were acquired from AHP analysis with respect to the degree of importance and then the modified weighted score for actual measurements were classified as three categories: large(2.53), medium(1.60) and small(1.01). Based on delphi technique, erosion control dam dredging evaluation fieldbook introduced the four evaluation indicators out of the total six evaluation indicators and two low effected evaluation indicators were excluded. This results showed that the values for reliability analysis and consistency ratio were acceptable.

원주지역에서의 유기농업 활동과 협동조합 역할과의 관계 연구 - Delphi Technique을 활용한 인식조사 - (A Study on the Relationship between Organic Agriculture Activity and Cooperatives Role in Wonju - Utilizing Delphi Technique -)

  • 최덕천
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.423-453
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    • 2015
  • This study started with two questions. The first question is 'Why does organic agriculture want to be linked with cooperative?' The second is 'What is the characteristics of the mutual relationship between organic agriculture and cooperative?', especially in Wonju. Up to now, there have been various kinds of discussion about cooperation between organic agricultural campaign and cooperative in Wonju. But there are few concrete data showing what role cooperative plays in the cyclical process of production-distribution-consumption of organic agriculture. Thus, we conducted a survey applying the Delphi technique to the 35 organic agricultural specialists active in Wonju. First, small-scale family farm producers established a social economic cooperative network in around 2003 to perform 'the activities of innovators' through forming an organization. Producers moved from the stage in which they were supported one-sidedly by consumers to the stage where they could 'lead' cooperation. Each farm organization built a vertical integration, and horizontal cooperative systems with other farm organizations. But, practical cooperative activities have remained in the doldrums. They tend to show trends deviating from the principles of organic agriculture and cooperative. Second, the relationship between producers and consumers in Wonju can be described as 'producer-consumer cooperative type'. In Wonju, the producers' organization is not a sub-contractor which simply deliver organic agricultural products to producers' cooperative, but is an equal subject which creates its own value chain. The cooperative (cooperative organization) leads distribution and consumption of organic agricultural products and mutual communication. But, the closeness between producers and consumers has got loosened. And, it is problematic that the proportion of local food consumption in Wonju is very low. There is a very strong tendency to ride the central distribution system of producers' cooperative coalition. Consequently, it is necessary for producers' cooperatives in Wonju to run a local food distribution system based on the 'cooperative system among cooperatives'.

Essential Competencies for Digital Workforce of Provincial Office in Thailand Using Delphi Technique

  • Rujira Rikharom;Wirapong, Chansanam
    • Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.51-81
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to study its required performance requirements and proposes a competency framework necessary for the digital workforce of the Provincial Offices in Thailand. The specific primary informants were determined as 17 people. The collecting process was performed using the Delphi technique and the electronic Delphi technique in two phases, totaling four rounds. In the first time, a structured interview was used to conduct online interviews for 15 people. Content validation was performed to determine issues of the competency framework essential for the digital workforce with 7-level scaled questionnaires, and then online reviews were collected between 10-15 people (2nd to 4th times). A consensus was found and confirmed four times with descriptive statistics, namely frequency, mean, standard deviation, mode, median, and the absolute value of the difference between mode and median, interquartile range, and application of the conceptual framework. The research findings revealed that the essential competency requirements for the digital workforce were covered in digital literacy (six aspects), digital skills (four aspects), and digital characteristics (four aspects). Consensus was confirmed for 84 issues. Therefore, it was concluded that 61 points for building an essential competency framework for the digital workforce made them effective in using digital technology as a labor-saving instrument, as well as for expanding the breadth of development of digital expertise to include members of the organization's digital practitioner network. This development will benefit government agencies and the private sector, both national and international, in the future.

외식기업 조직진단모형 개발에 관한 연구 - 델파이 기법으로 - (An Organizational Diagnostic Model for Food Service Firms Using the Delphi Technique)

  • 백유태;최세린;최규완
    • 한국식생활문화학회지
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.282-292
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to identify a suitable organizational diagnostic model for analyzing the management efficiency of food service firms. We used the three-iteration Delphi technique on a panel of 19 business employees, 7 industry experts, and 4 employees in the food service industry. A total of 36 assessment indicators were developed through this panel, with numerous major findings. First, it is important to evaluate the leadership qualities of employees in terms of their motivation and competency. Second, it is important to evaluate the ability of employees to interface well with other employees. Third, it is important to evaluate and manage the brand image recognized by customers. Fourth, it is important to evaluate the fairness and regularity of the rewards given for an excellent job performance. Fifth, it is important to evaluate the level of communication and information distribution in the organizational culture. Last, but not least, it is important to evaluate the transparency and fairness of an organization in its human resource management (HRM) and the efficiency of its organizational structure. In conclusion, this study empirically shows how food service firms can develop an organizational diagnostic model to increase their managerial efficiency.

델파이 분석을 활용한 대구 MEDI-FESTA 기본 프로그램 도출에 관한 연구 (Establishing the Core Program for Daegu MEDI-FESTA Using Delphi Technique)

  • 김영규;박균익
    • 문화기술의 융합
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.481-485
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    • 2023
  • 우리나라의 많은 지역에서 다양한 축제들이 진행되고 있으나 구체적인 계획 없이 타 축제를 모방하여 독창성, 차별성, 정체성이 없는 무분별한 지역축제는 관광객의 관심을 끌지 못하기 때문에 축제 기획 시 축제의 특성에 맞는 기본프로그램을 선정하는 것은 향후 축제의 연속성과 성공을 위한 매우 중요한 부분이다. 성공과 실패의 경험을 바탕으로 정체성과 독창성을 갖춘 지역 축제는 지역 경제의 활성화 및 도시 브랜드 구축에도 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 축제 관련 다양한 전문가들의 의견을 잘 반영할 수 있는 델파이 기법을 이용하여 대구의 대표축제로 발전할 가능성이 있는 MEDI FESTA 의 기본프로그램을 제안하고자 한다.

A Delphi Study on the Price Escalation Clause in a Construction Contract

  • Choi, Min Soo;Kim, Moo Han
    • Architectural research
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest policies to improve the price escalation system in a construction contract through a Policy Delphi technique. The Delphi, including two times questionnaires and a group discussion, was conducted by joining 14 experts. Also, the escalation provisions of various countries were examined. Results of the Delphi showed that the minimum fluctuation rate for price escalation was desirable at a level of 3%. To compute the fluctuation rate, calculating the price fluctuation of overall articles was more desirable than using price indices. A bidding date was more reasonable as the initial date of change in price. Losses caused by price change should be shared between contractor and owner; therefore a deduction rate should be introduced in price escalation. Meanwhile, overhead and profit should be adjusted in proportion to the fluctuation rate; but advance payment or the delayed construction amount should be deducted from the adjusted amount.

학습성과기반 단계적 통합간호실습교육 매트릭스 개발 (The Development of the Integrated Nursing Practicum Education Matrix based on Learning Outcomes)

  • 이주희;이태화;이현경;김상희;배주연;한지희;이경은
    • 한국간호교육학회지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.528-539
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated nursing practicum education matrix based on the learning outcomes of each stage. Methods: In this Delphi technique study, 10 experts, consisting of six professors and four nurses, participated in the development of the matrix. The first step was an in-depth review for the composition of the questionnaire and the second step was the Delphi technique. The Delphi survey was conducted two times in order to complete the components of the matrix. The survey data was analyzed for statistical averages and standard deviations to decide the order of priority. Results: According to each stage (i.e. fundamental stage, competent stage, and proficient stage), the matrix was composed of education contents, methods, evaluation methods, and curriculum outcomes. Conclusion: The integrated nursing practicum education matrix of Y University was completed. The developed matrix will result in a reduction in the gap between nursing education and clinical practice and an improvement in nursing competency.

Development of Educational Content for Nurses to Prevent Safety Accidents of Hospitalized Children: Delphi Approach

  • Lee, Yun Sil;Oh, Won-Oak
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.74-84
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop content for safety education to prevent hospital safety accidents among hospitalized children and to investigate the status of safety education performed by nurses. Methods: First, the Delphi method was used, with 18 experts, to develop educational contents for preventing safety accidents. Second, an exploratory survey was performed of the actual status of safety education for preventing safety accidents among hospitalized children using a questionnaire developed based on the Delphi method. The participants of this study were 159 nurses with at least 6 months of work experience. Results: The educational content developed through the Delphi method for preventing safety accidents among hospitalized children contained seven domains (falls, injury, electric shocks/burns, suffocation/aspiration, poisoning/abuse, kidnapping, medical devices) with 44 topics. The item mean of nurses'perceptions of the importance of child safety education was 4.18, and the actual performance score was 3.72, which was a statistically significant difference (t=11.58, p<.001). Conclusion: These seven comprehensive domains of accident prevention education for hospitalized children are expected to be useful for interventions to support the safety of hospitalized children.

Development of Mission and Vision of College of Korean Medicine Using the Delphi Techniques and Big-Data Analysis

  • Yeo, Sanghee;Choi, Seong Hun;Chae, Su Jin
    • 대한한의학회지
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    • 제42권4호
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    • pp.176-184
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to introduce the procedures and methods for mission and vision development at a College of Korean Medicine (CKM), which established its mission and vision using Delphi techniques and big data analysis on various members and stakeholders. Methods: A total of 754 participated in the Delphi survey. A Delphi survey was conducted with professors, students, parents, and alumni stakeholders to establish Daegu Haany University CKM's mission and vision. The data were analyzed through content analysis and big data analysis of keywords. Results: As a result of the study, the most important keywords to be included in the mission and vision were "professionalism" and "morality." Included in the mission were the concepts of "morality" and "professionalism," which were emphasized by the four groups. All surveyed stakeholders regarded "scientific," and "global" as important themes to be included in the vision. Conclusions: The present study confirmed that there were themes commonly prioritized by all stakeholders for college mission and vision, and a difference in demand for educational goals between professors and students was also affirmed. Therefore, institutions of higher learning should develop their mission and vision by appropriately reflecting the needs of the interest groups.