• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.267-273
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

• 공학교육연구
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.21-27
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to provide basic data and guideline to STEM(Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) educators who prepare engineering education in elementary and secondary school. For this, this study develops a composition model for engineering education program of elementary and secondary school. To do this, a literature research, experts interview and Delphi survey were conducted. Through the literature research, we extracted the components of model for engineering education program of elementary and secondary school and then made a first draft of the model. The draft was revised by experts while Delphi survey was used to validate the model based on Delphi panels' opinions. The panels for the Delphi survey consisted of 51 experts in the STEM education field. The survey was conducted three different times and importance survey was included in the third stage. The conclusions of this study were as follows: First, the model consist of definition, 4 directions, 4 characteristics, 3 educational goals according to school level, educational contents area and element, teaching and learning method and evaluation method. The educational contents area and element consist of 2 major areas, 7 areas and 18 elements. Second, all components of the developed model were valid in most of the statistics such as mean, standard deviation, the degree of consensus and convergence, and CVR(Content Validity Ratio). Third, importance for education contents area and element according to the school level are analyzed.

• 대한수학교육학회지:학교수학
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.867-888
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• 2013

본 연구의 목적은 수학교육, STEAM 교육, 영재교육 전문가를 대상으로 델파이 설문 조사를 통해 수학영재를 위한 STEAM교육 방안을 마련하는 것이다. 총 3차에 걸쳐 이루어진 조사 결과 수학영재들에게 필요한 STEAM교육은 융합적 사고와 창의적 사고를 가지고 새로운 문제를 발견하고 해결하는 데 있어 자기주도적인 탐구를 통하여 다양한 사람들과 의사소통할 수 있는 전인적인 역량을 함양하는 교육이라고 개념화 할 수 있었다. 이에 따라 수학영재를 위한 STEAM교육의 목표와 방법, 내용, 평가 등에 대한 전문가들의 합의를 도출하였으며, 이에 기초한 후속연구로 수학영재를 위한 STEAM 교수-학습 모형을 개발하고자 한다.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.372-380
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• 2010

본 연구는 시뮬레이션 기반의 중장기 기술예측 방법론에 대해서 다룬다. 먼저 전문가 집단을 상대로 한 델파이 조사를 통해 미래의 신기술들의 출현 시점과 기술들간의 영향 관계에 대한 데이터를 수집한 후, 취득한 데이터를 활용하여 미래에 개발되어야 하는 신기술들 중에서 핵심기술을 도출하는 새로운 방법론을 제시한다. 일반적인 델파이 조사가 기술 출현에 대한 일정 시점의 예측치만을 제공하는데 반해, 본 연구에서는 시뮬레이션 알고리즘을 통해 기술 출현 시기에 대한 범위를 도출하고, 이를 기초로 핵심기술을 정의한다. 미래에 개발될 기술들의 출현 시점 뿐 만 아니라 핵심 기술에 대한 정보도 함께 도출함으로써, 연구개발 담당자 및 중장기 프로젝트 관리자들에게 자원배분과 관련한 정보를 제공하여 그들의 의사결정을 도울 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 영재교육연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.387-410
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• 2012

본 연구의 목적은 과학교육, 창의 인성 교육, 영재교육 전문가를 대상으로 델파이 설문조사를 통해 창의 인성 중심의 과학영재교육 방안을 마련하는 것이다. 총 3차에 걸쳐 이루어진 조사 결과 과학영재들에게 필요한 창의 인성 교육은 창의성을 중심으로 인성이 융합된 형태로서 새로운 문제를 발견하고 해결하는 데 있어 다양한 사람들과 의사소통할 수 있는 조화로운 인성 함양의 교육이라 개념화할 수 있었다. 이에 따라 과학영재교육의 목표와 방법, 내용, 평가 등에 대한 전문가들의 합의를 도출하였으며, 이에 기초한 후속연구로 창의 인성 중심의 과학영재 교수-학습 모형을 개발하고자 한다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 1995년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집; 전남대학교; 28-29 Apr. 1995
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• pp.496-500
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• 1995

전문가 내지 구성원의 주관적인 의견에 의존하는 방법의 하나인 델파이법(Delphi Method)은 관련자료가 불충분한 중.장기 예측, 전략결정 등에 이용되고 있다. 이 방법을 더욱 발전시킨 퍼지 델파이법(Fuzzy Delphi Method)은 델파이법에 퍼지숫자(fuzzy number)의 개념을 도입하여 정확한 예측을 하고자 하는 것이다. 또한 이러한 예측치가 삼각 퍼지 숫자(Triangular Fuzzy Number)로 주어져 불확실성에 대한 예측과 의견종합을 쉽게 하며, 전문가에 의해 추정된 삼각 퍼지 숫자의 입력을 토애 그 추정치들의 비유사도(Dissemblance Index)와 퍼지거리(fuzzy distance)를 계산하고 간단한 그래프를 다시 전문가에게 피드백(feedback)할 수 있도록 나타내어지는 과정을 code화하여 전문가들로 하여금 다양한 정보를 통하여 좀 더 정확한 추정치를 예측하고자 한다.

• Journal of Multimedia Information System
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.283-292
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• 2019

This paper introduces the development and current prosperity of the branch discipline of visual anthropology and describes the status and current situation of modern visual anthropology and analyzes the rationality that the achievements of visual anthropology is viewed as texts and enjoy the same achievements, making it more basis and scientific in the selection of visual anthropology in subsequent research. This article comprehensively uses Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process to construct an evaluation system of visual anthropology, as well as put forward the basic principles of screening films using this evaluation system in subsequent studies and a simple outlook for future expansion.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.528-538
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• 2012

With domestic construction projects becoming bigger, more specialized and more advanced, the construction industry is striving to improve quality and quantity, and is diversifying functions and shapes. Nevertheless, the process of a construction project causes problems when we estimate construction price, because the cost breakdown structures are different in each step. The primary aim of this study was to estimate building life cycle cost using the Delphi method. The cost breakdown structure for life cycle cost was classified into planning, design, construction, maintenance and waste disposal, and each detailed classification was determined by estimating life cycle cost. Moreover, the developed cost breakdown structure is verified by consulting with experts to secure objectivity and validity.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.81-89
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• 2003

This research suggests the FD-AHP decision making model for Construction Projects which is composed of two main method to prevent a ranking invert situation ; First, to make the consensus of the experts consistent, we utilize Fuzzy-Delphi method to adjust the fuzzy rating of every expert to achive the consensus condition with the fuzzy linguistic presentation. Second, to handle vague linguistic presentation caused by expert's experiences and subjective judgement, we propose Fuzzy-AHP which is able to enhance precision of construction projects decision mating situation. Moreover, with the correlation analysis, we show that the validity of the FD-AHP model under a decision making task specially on where highly demanded expert's experiences and intuition.

• 산업공학
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.53-65
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• 1988

This study was carried out to investigate TF(Technological Forecasting) of ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) by Delphi method. Since the technology of science has been developed rapidly, the necessity of TF, which can predict the future direction and intensities of technological progress, has been gradually recognized in various fields. Therefore the purpose of this study was to explore the normative statistical data so that our business or nation may have better decision-making with the TF of ISDN which will be come into in the 21st century, presenting the appropriate methodology to the application of methods.