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http://dx.doi.org/10.5392/JKCA.2010.10.1.372

Simulation Based Method for Mid-and-Long Term Technological Forecasting  

Yu, Sung-Yeol (부산가톨릭대학교 유통경영정보학부)
Publication Information
The Journal of the Korea Contents Association / v.10, no.1, 2010 , pp. 372-380 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, we consider a mid-and-long term technological forecasting method based on simulation technique. We, first, gather information about a point of appearance time of new technologies which will be developed in the future and influence relationship among those technologies by Delphi survey. And then we propose a simulation-based heuristic approach searching for the key technology among new technologies which will be developed to attain a normative objective using the Delphi data. We also provide the range of occurrence time for individual technology and define key technologies in this study in contrast that a expert's estimate to occurrence time is only one point in traditional Delphi survey. The information for key technologies which are detected by this procedure gives priorities of R&D planning and aids the R&D planner or project manager in resource allocation.
Keywords
Technological Forecasting; Key Technology; Simulation; Delphi;
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