• Title/Summary/Keyword: Delay of decision making

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Cognitive Biases in Perceiving Feedback LooP Dominance

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan;Kim, Byung-Kwan
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.127-142
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    • 2004
  • Feedback loop dominance is a key concept to understand structural driving forces of system behavior. In this paper, we propose two kinds of shifts in dominant feedback loops: continuous shifts (CS) and discrete shifts (DS). With the help of questionnaires, we verified three hypotheses regarding cognitive biases in perceiving the shifts in dominant feedback loops: 1) failure in perceiving continuous shifts, 2) tendency of decision making based on discrete shifts, and 3) different perception on the dominant feedback loops between level variables and rate variables. We discussed the implication of these cognitive biases on time delay and timing strategy in decision-making processes.

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Process Progress Pattern Analysis based on Daily Work Report Analysis (작업일보 데이터 분석 기반 공정 진척 패턴 분석)

  • Ko, Yong-Ho;Shin, Young-Keun;Han, Seung-woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.156-157
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    • 2016
  • Construction projects have shown a dramatic increase in size and complexity during the recent years that precise management has been recognized as one of key factors leading the project to success. It has been investigated that management in construction sites is generally done based on the experience of site engineers. Such experience based decision making lacks reliability that could bring disastrous results such as delay and cost overruns. The purpose of this study is to suggest a process progress pattern analysis method that is expected to be used as an objective reference for site managers to aid the decision making done regarding process progress management.

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CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE DELAY RISK ASSESSMENT BY USING COMBINED AHP-RII METHODOLOGY FOR AN INTERNATIONAL NPP PROJECT

  • HOSSEN, MUHAMMED MUFAZZAL;KANG, SUNKOO;KIM, JONGHYUN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.362-379
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    • 2015
  • In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

Effective Coordination Method of Multi-Agent Based on Fuzzy Decision Making (퍼지 의사결정에 기반한 멀티에이전트의 효율적인 조정방안)

  • Ryu, Kyung-Hyun;Chung, Hwan-Mook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.66-71
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    • 2007
  • To adapt environment changing high speed and improve rapidly response ability for variation of environment and reduce delay time of decision making inlet agents, the derivation of user's preference and alternative are required. In this paper, we propose an efficient coordination method of multi-agents based on fuzzy decision making with the solution proposed by agents in the view of Pareto optimality. Our method generates the optimal alternative by using weighted value. We compute importance of attributes of winner agent, then can obtain the priorities lot attributes. The result of our method is analyzed that of Yager's method.

Development of Gateway Review System for Supporting Collaborative Decision-Making through Project Life Cycle (사업 단계별 의사결정 지원 게이트웨이 리뷰 체계 구축)

  • Shin, Seung-Woo;Yi, June-Seong;Lee, Jee-Hee;Park, Kyung-Rog;Lim, Ji-Youn
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2010
  • As Urban Regeneration is being carried out, stakeholders are most likely to have disagreements on their interests. Besides, dispersion of numerous communication routes and obscure decision processes aggravate the situation. Eventually, fragmented decision-making processes and complex structure lead to inefficient outcome and delay of projects. This paper is a study on decision-making support not only helps the program manager have more efficient and optimum decision, but also provides alternatives for Urban Regeneration. This study is conducted as follows. Firstly, the project process and the decision-making structure among stakeholders in Urban Regeneration are analyzed, and then the current status of decision-making in Urban Regeneration project is classified. Secondly, with literature study on "Gateway Review", the decision-making gateway review process in Urban Regeneration is defined, and then the "Gateway Review Elements" are listed. Thirdly, to establish gateway review process, this paper presents a check points, namely gate which supports a program manager to monitor and to control the program management in Urban Regeneration. Each gate has several supporting tools such as diagram of critical decision points relation, scheme of stakeholder, checklist. Fourthly, the proposed concept is verified by experts who have been carefully selected to provide their respective reviews. Finally, decision-making support gateway review system is modified based on their critiques and suggestions.

Imagining Negative Futures to Reduce the Delay Neutralization of Negativity (부정적 미래 상상과 그에 따른 부정성의 지연중성화 감소)

  • Shin, Yeon Soon;Kim, Hye-Young;Han, Sanghoon
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.293-304
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    • 2013
  • Procrastination is an irrational choice to delay high-priority work in order to avoid its unpleasantness, despite the fact that the negativity will not cease if the work still remains undone. We hypothesized that (1) people underestimate the future negativity (i.e., delay neutralization) and (2) in order to complete work in a timely manner, one should project oneself into the future so as to recognize that the negativity associated with an activity does not diminish over time. Especially, negative future thinking that is unrelated to the consequence was hypothesized to reduce delay neutralization of negativity. In the present study, undergraduate students made a series of choices between delayed-but-longer and immediate-but-shorter assignment by employing an inter-temporal choice paradigm. We tracked how positive and negative episodic future thinking influenced the degree to which negativity is neutralized over time (Experiment 1). Following this, we confined the experimental condition to negative thinking about the future (Experiment 2). Participants neutralized negativity involved in assignment as a function of time, suggesting that procrastination arises from the delay neutralization of the negativity. Critically, such neutralization was significantly reduced when participants imagined a negative future event, but this did not occur when they imagined a positive future event (Experiment 1), or when participants did not think about the future (Experiment 1, 2). Our findings suggest that, prior to making a decision between work and indulgence, imagining negative future events can be an effective way to reduce the neutralization of delayed negativity and, in turn, procrastination.

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Air Path Establishment Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Making Method in Tactical Ad Hoc Networks (전술 애드혹 네트워크에서 다속성 의사결정 방법 기반 공중 경로 생성 방안)

  • Kim, Beom-Su;Roh, BongSoo;Kim, Ki-Il
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2020
  • Multipath routing protocols with unmanned aerial vehicles have been proposed to improve reliability in tactical ad hoc networks. Most of existing studies tend to establish the paths with multiple metrics. However, these approaches suffer from link loss and congestion problems according to the network condition because they apply same metric for both ground and air path or employ the simple weight value to combine multiple metrics. To overcome this limitation, in this study, we propose new routing metrics for path over unmanned aerial vehicles and use the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method to determine the weight factors between multiple metrics. For the case studies, we extend the ad-hoc on-demand distance vector protocol and propose a strategy for modifying the route discovery and route recovery procedure. The simulation results show that the proposed mechanism is able to achieve high end-to-end reliability and low end-to-end delay in tactical ad hoc networks.

Delay Factor Analysis and Process Enhancement System Development Focusing on Masonry Work (조적공사에서의 작업 지연 요소 도출 및 개선 시스템 제안)

  • Park, Min Ha;Lee, Hye Lin;Ko, Yong-Ho;Han, SeungWoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.119-120
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    • 2015
  • Appropriate management of the finish works in construction project is one of most important activities that must be conducted considering the total duration of the project. Masonry work is a fundamental process that is performed in the preliminary steps of finish works. However, it has been investigated that the analysis of delay factors affecting masonry work has been neglected in the domestic construction site. Therefore, this study deducts delay factors affecting masonry work by literature review and survey on site engineers and labors. This study has been conducted as a preliminary step of developing a construction project interference management system which is expected to suggest objective information for the decision making in construction sites.

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Application of BIM Elements for Owner's Decision - Making Support (발주자 참여 확대를 위한 BIM 적용요소에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Ha;Park, Jae-Hyun;Cho, Sung;Cho, Yong;Yun, Seok-Heon;Paek, Joon-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2009.05b
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    • pp.185-188
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    • 2009
  • Recently clients requirements and social requirements are complex and large sized in construction projects. Futhermore, processes and steps are more complexed than before. Unsuitable reflection of clients brings mistaken opinions. A phase of middle change makes delay and change. It brings problems of waste expense and time. 80, first stage of planning and schematic design processes have to reflect of clients opinion actively. by increasing of constructions project competitiveness. Recently, BIM(Building Information Modeling is being researched frequently. Through visualization of information proceed step by step and it helps cognition of adapting information. 80, this paper finds and suggests solution of reflecting clients opinion and requirements and non professional clients and positively support of client participation watching based on BIM.

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A Study on Improving the Production and Shipment Using MES System (MES 시스템을 이용한 생산 및 출하 신뢰성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Joong-Hyun;Bae, Byeong-Gon;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2007
  • Recently, the strategy of the age of limitless competition for existence of manufacturing company appears for the enhancement of productivity through the automatic system, the reduction for the cost for standardization and the decision making process for the information system. Especially the critical success factors in manufacturing company can be summarized for the establishment of production visibility through the production management, material & work-in-process management, the establish of the flexible manufacturing system for the changed order priority and the establish of the quality system for improvement of product and process quality. The existing production management systems supply only simple information about production results on real time, can delay quick decision making. And it can prevent acquiring the information about various customer needs and the communication problems with other systems. In this paper, it will show MES system, a solution for the problems of existing production management systems. And through a case study of D company, it will reveal improvement effect on shipment error using MES system and economic analysis for MES itself.

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