• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.1099-1105
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• 2018

How to choose defaults in risk-informed regulations depends on the conservatism implicated in regulatory defaults. Without a universal agreement on the approaches dealing with the conservatism of defaults, however, the desirability of conservatism in regulatory risk analyses has long been controversial. The opponent views it as needlessly costly and irrational, and the proponent as a form of protection against possible omissions or underestimation of risks. Moreover, the inherent ambiguity of risk makes it difficult to set suitable defaults in terms of risk. This paper, the extension of the previous work [1], focuses on the effects of different levels of conservatism implicated in regulatory defaults on the estimates of risk. According to the postulated behaviors of regulated parties and the diversity of interests of regulators, in particular, various measures for evaluating the effect of conservatism in defaults are developed and their properties are explored. In addition, a simple decision model for setting regulatory defaults is formulated, based on the understanding of the effect of conservatism implicated in them. It can help decision makers evaluate the levels of safety likely to result from their regulatory policies.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.193-199
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• 2006

We consider a zero coupon bond that is at the risk of multitype multiple defaults. Assuming defaults occur according to k Cox processes, we find a price process for zero coupon bonds. To derive this process we follow the Lando (1998)'s method which uses conditional expectations instead of the traditional methods.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.803-811
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• 2012

For credit evaluation models, we extend the study of discriminatory power based on AUC obtained from a ROC curve when the number of defaults is small and distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults are normal distributions. Since distribution functions do not satisfy normality in real world, the distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults are assumed as normal mixture distributions based on results that the normal mixture could be better fitted than other distribution estimation methods for non-normal data. By using several AUC statistics, the discriminatory power under such a circumstance is explored and compared with those of normal distributions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.29-39
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• 2009

Among others, ROC and CAP curves are used to explore the discriminatory power between the defaults and non-defaults, based on the distribution of the probability of default in credit rating works. ROC and CAP curves are plotted in terms of various ratios of the probability of default. Each point on ROC and CAP curves is calculated according to cutting points (scores) for classifying between defaults and non-defaults. In this paper, adjusted ROC and CAP curves are proposed by using functions of ratios of the probability of default. It is possible to recognize the score corresponding to a point oil these adjusted curves, and we can identify the best score to show the optimal discriminatory power. Moreover, we discuss the relationships between the best score obtained from the adjusted ROC and CAP curves and the score corresponding to Kolmogorov - Smirnov statistic to test the homogeneous distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.911-921
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• 2009

Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) and Cumulative Accuracy Profile(CAP) curves are two methods used to assess the discriminatory power of different credit-rating approaches. The points of optimal classification accuracy on an ROC curve and of maximal profit on a CAP curve can be found by using iso-performance tangent lines, which are based on the standard notion of accuracy. In this paper, we offer an alternative accuracy measure called the true rate. Using this rate, one can obtain alternative optimal threshold points on both ROC and CAP curves. For most real populations of borrowers, the number of the defaults is much less than that of the non-defaults, and in such cases the true rate may be more efficient than the accuracy rate in terms of cost functions. Moreover, it is shown that both alternative scores of optimal classification accuracy and maximal profit are the identical, and this single score coincides with the score corresponding to Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic used to test the homogeneous distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Language and Information Conference
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• 1996.02a
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• pp.43-52
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• 1996

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.39-56
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• 1997

This paper applies the binary tree classifier and discriminant analysis methods to predicting failures of banks and insurance companies. In this study, discriminant analysis is generally better than the binary tree classifier in the classification of bank defaults; the binary tree is generally better than discriminant analysis in the classification of insurance company defaults. This situation can be explained that the performance of a classifier depends on the characteristics of the data. If the data are dispersed appropriately for the classifier, the classifier will show a good performance. Otherwise, it may show a poor performance. The two data sets (bank and insurance) are analyzed to explain the better performance of the binary tree in insurance and the worse performance in bank; the better performance of discriminant analysis in bank and the worse performance in insurance.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.487-493
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• 2009

We consider a multiple defaultable zero coupon bond. Assuming defaults occur according to a marked point process, we explain how to estimate the time-t discounted price of zero coupon bond by simulation. For the special case of a given specific random face value, we show that the real probability measure is the risk neutral probability measure. In this case the time-t discounted conditional price can be obtained by observing a single sample path upto the time t in the real world. Furthermore the time-t discounted price can be estimated by observing real situations or by simulation under the real probability measure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.161-166
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• 2000

Regulators often specify default values that are considered acceptable for use in risk analyses as input to regulatory decisions. Because both performing and validating a detailed risk analysis of a complex system are costly and time-consuming undertakings, the use of default values can greatly facilitate the process of performing a risk analysis in the first place as well as the process of reviewing and verifying the risk analysis. It may also ensure more uniform in quality of risk analyses. However, different regulatory agencies differ in their approaches to the use of default values, and the implications of these differences are not yet widely understood. Moreover, large heterogeneity among licensees makes it difficult to set suitable defaults. This paper focuses on the effect of default values on estimates of risk. Some insights on the effects of different levels of conservatism in setting defaults will be provided. The results can help decision makers evaluate the levels of safety likely to result from their regulatory policies.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.71-91
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• 2016

This paper examines the effect of the government college loan program in Korea on student academic performance, dropout decisions and loan defaults. While fairness in educational opportunities has been guaranteed to some degree through this program, which started in 2009, there has been a great deal of controversy over its effectiveness. Empirical findings suggest that recipients of general student loan (GSL) lower academic performance than those who received income contingent loan (ICL). Moreover, for students attending private universities, a higher number of loans received increased the probability of a dropout decision, and students from middle-income households had a higher probability of being overdue than students from low-income households. These findings indicate that expanding the ICL program within the allowance of the government budget is necessary. Furthermore, providing opportunities for students to find various jobs and introducing a rating system for defaulters are two necessary tasks.