• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision-Making Models

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Utilization of Forecasting Accounting Earnings Using Artificial Neural Networks and Case-based Reasoning: Case Study on Manufacturing and Banking Industry (인공신경망과 사례기반추론을 이용한 기업회계이익의 예측효용성 분석 : 제조업과 은행업을 중심으로)

  • Choe, Yongseok;Han, Ingoo;Shin, Taeksoo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.81-101
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    • 2003
  • The financial statements purpose to provide useful information to decision-making process of business managers. The value-relevant information, however, embedded in the financial statement has been often overlooked in Korea. In fact, the financial statements in Korea have been utilized for nothing but account reports to Security Supervision Boards (SSB). The objective of this study is to develop earnings forecasting models through financial statement analysis using artificial intelligence (AI). AI methods are employed in forecasting earnings: artificial neural networks (ANN) for manufacturing industry and case~based reasoning (CBR) for banking industry. The experimental results using such AI methods are as follows. Using ANN for manufacturing industry records 63.2% of hit ratio for out-of-sample, which outperforms the logistic regression by around 4%. The experiment through CBR for banking industry shows 65.0% of hit ratio that beats the statistical method by 13.2% in holdout sample. Finally, the prediction results for manufacturing industry are validated through monitoring the shift in cumulative returns of portfolios based on the earning prediction. The portfolio with the firms whose earnings are predicted to increase is designated as best portfolio and the portfolio with the earnings-decreasing firms as worst portfolio. The difference between two portfolios is about 3% of cumulative abnormal return on average. Consequently, this result showed that the financial statements in Korea contain the value-relevant information that is not reflected in stock prices.

On the on and off line integrated marketing strategy for retail firms empirical models for BAROKOSA (유통기업의 온-오프라인 통합마케팅 전략 -(주)Barokosa 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Kim Chang-Ho
    • The Journal of Information Technology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.151-168
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    • 2003
  • The present paper attempts to describe on and off line integrated marketing and develop an empirical model for distribution industry. The focus is given on the small and medium size retail and service area. With both empirical case studies and literature review, we aim to develop empirical cases and propose a desirable marketing strategy for specific firms : BAROKOSA is pursues cooperation in wholesale business on the internet. For the purpose of the cooperative and integrated marketing of on and off line business, first of all, the firms should establish a clear target and share vision and mission for their directions. We suggest the following guidelines: (i) customer-based decision making, (ii) thoroughly cooperative competition, (iii) confidence in their work and business, (iv) courage to live up to action and (v) innovation to lead change.

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Distributed Computing Models for Wireless Sensor Networks (무선 센서 네트워크에서의 분산 컴퓨팅 모델)

  • Park, Chongmyung;Lee, Chungsan;Jo, Youngtae;Jung, Inbum
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.958-966
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    • 2014
  • Wireless sensor networks offer a distributed processing environment. Many sensor nodes are deployed in fields that have limited resources such as computing power, network bandwidth, and electric power. The sensor nodes construct their own networks automatically, and the collected data are sent to the sink node. In these traditional wireless sensor networks, network congestion due to packet flooding through the networks shortens the network life time. Clustering or in-network technologies help reduce packet flooding in the networks. Many studies have been focused on saving energy in the sensor nodes because the limited available power leads to an important problem of extending the operation of sensor networks as long as possible. However, we focus on the execution time because clustering and local distributed processing already contribute to saving energy by local decision-making. In this paper, we present a cooperative processing model based on the processing timeline. Our processing model includes validation of the processing, prediction of the total execution time, and determination of the optimal number of processing nodes for distributed processing in wireless sensor networks. The experiments demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed model, and a case study shows that our model can be used for the distributed application.

An Automatic Business Process Model Generation Tool Using Business Process Family Models (비즈니스 프로세스 패밀리 모델을 이용한 비즈니스 프로세스 모델 자동 생성 도구)

  • Hong, Min-Woo;Moon, Mi-Kyeong;Yeom, Keun-Hyuk
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.35 no.8
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    • pp.479-492
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    • 2008
  • Nowadays, lots of requirements are changed quickly and variously. So, we need the ability to support the change of business process which is the asset of a company. To support this ability, the core asset that supports analyzing and describing about changes of business process should be exist from generating phase of a business process model. And a business process model that is satisfied the changed requirements should be automatically generated using core assets. In this paper, we present a business process family model (BPFM) which represents the commonalities and the variabilities of a set of business processes, we propose the automated tool using variabilities of BPFM and decision-making information for generation of business process model that is satisfied the changed requirements.

A Single Cell Multimedia Fate Model for Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals

  • Park, Kyunghee;Junheon Youn;Daeil Kang;Lee, Choong;Lee, Dongsoo;Jaeryoung Oh;Sunghwan Jeon;Jingyun Na
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.149-149
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    • 2003
  • To understand environmental paths of the transport and accumulation of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), a single cell multimedia fate model has been constructed and evaluated. The EDCs of concern were PAHs, Organochlorine Pesticides (OCPs), PCBs, Alkyl phenols, and phthalates. An evaluation model was designed for the multimedia distribution, including air, water, soil, sediment and vegetation. This model was verified using reported values and via monitoring data. Based on collected data, the distribution trends of EDCs with respect to environmental media were analyzed. Those results have applied to the model for the prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of EDCs in Seoul. Especially, phenol compound, phthalates, PAHs, PCBs and organochlorine pesticides were estimated and the model was verified. This model was successfully conducted to environmental media, such as air (vapor and suspended particles), soils (forest soil, bare soil, and cement-concrete covered soil), water (dissolved and suspended solids), sediment, trees (deciduous and coniferous). The discrepancies between the model prediction and the measured data are approximately within or near a factor of 10 for the PAHs of three rings through that of six rings, implying that multimedia distribution of the PAHs could be predicted with a factor of 10. Concerning about the air equilibrium may be assumed, a fugacity at steady state is similar in all environmental media. Considering the uncertainties of this model, the use of equilibrium models may be sufficient for assessing chemical fates. In this study, a suggestion was made that modeling and estimation of chemicals in environmental multimedia be rigorously evaluated using the measured flux data. In addition, these data should be obtained, for example, from the precise and standardized inventory of the target chemicals. The model (EDC Seoul) will be refined in an on-going research effort and will be used to support decision-making concerning the management of EDCs.

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A Study on the Development of Information Resources Management Techniques (정보자원관리 기법 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 정동열
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1995
  • The purpose of this paper is to promote the effectiveness of information resources management in corporates or research centers. Every business needs to plan its strategy for the transition from doing business in an industrial economy to doing business in an information economy. Information and information technologies are integral to organizational mission and should play increasingly central role in strategic planning. The production, processing, and distribution of information resources is quickly becoming a major consumer good and an input in the production and decision making of all goods and services. Based upon the questionnaire survey and interview with information managers in information centers, this paper analyze several aspects, such as. the current sutuation, concept, elements and structure, techniques and training models of information resources management for corporates and research centers.

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Design of Efficient Edge Computing based on Learning Factors Sharing with Cloud in a Smart Factory Domain (스마트 팩토리 환경에서 클라우드와 학습된 요소 공유 방법 기반의 효율적 엣지 컴퓨팅 설계)

  • Hwang, Zi-on
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.2167-2175
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, an IoT is dramatically developing according to the enhancement of AI, the increase of connected devices, and the high-performance cloud systems. Huge data produced by many devices and sensors is expanding the scope of services, such as an intelligent diagnostics, a recommendation service, as well as a smart monitoring service. The studies of edge computing are limited as a role of small server system with high quality HW resources. However, there are specialized requirements in a smart factory domain needed edge computing. The edges are needed to pre-process containing tiny filtering, pre-formatting, as well as merging of group contexts and manage the regional rules. So, in this paper, we extract the features and requirements in a scope of efficiency and robustness. Our edge offers to decrease a network resource consumption and update rules and learning models. Moreover, we propose architecture of edge computing based on learning factors sharing with a cloud system in a smart factory.

Development of Regression Model to evaluate the indirect costs of Life-Cycle Costs (생애주기비용의 간접비용 산출을 위한 Regression Model의 개발)

  • 조효남;이종순;김충완;박경훈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2004
  • Though the concept of Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) itself is not new, its effectiveness for planning, design, rehabilitation and maintenance/management of civil infrastructures is becoming increasingly recognized. For the decision problems as in the case of the LCC of plant facilities, equipments, bridge decks, pavements, etc., the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is relatively simple, and thus its practical implementation is rather straightforward. However, when it comes to major infrastructures such as bridge, tunnels, underground facilities, etc., the LCCA problem becomes extremely complex because lack of cost data associated with various direct and indirect losses, and the absence of uncertainty data available for the assessment as well. As a result, the LCC studies have been largely limited only to those relatively simple LCCA problems of planning or conceptual design for making decisions. Accordingly, in the recent years, the researchers have pursued extensive studies on the LCC effectiveness mostly related to LCC models and frameworks for civil infrastructures. Moreover, recently the demand on the practical application of LCC effective decisions in design and maintenance is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Indirction cost is very important on LCC formulation. But that is very difficult and complicate the estimation every LCC. The objective of this paper is to suggest efficient regression model for the estimation of indirect cost approach to the practical application of LCC for the design and rehabilitation of civil. infrastructures considering traffic, traffic network, detour condition, and workzone condition. In this paper, it performed the sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis of parameter for development of regression model of inflection cost.

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THINNED PIPE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM OF KOREAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Lee, S.H.;Lee, Y.S.;Park, S.K.;Lee, J.G.
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2015
  • Local wall thinning and integrity degradation caused by several mechanisms, such as flow accelerated corrosion (FAC), cavitation, flashing and/or liquid drop impingements, are a main concern in carbon steel piping systems of nuclear power plant in terms of safety and operability. Thinned pipe management program (TPMP) had been developed and optimized to reduce the possibility of unplanned shutdown and/or power reduction due to pipe failure caused by wall thinning in the secondary side piping system. This program also consists of several technical elements such as prediction of wear rate for each component, prioritization of components for inspection, thickness measurement, calculation of actual wear and wear rate for each component. Decision making is associated with replacement or continuous service for thinned pipe components. Establishment of long-term strategy based on diagnosis of plant condition regarding overall wall thinning is also essential part of the program. Prediction models of wall thinning caused by FAC had been established for 24 operating nuclear plants. Long term strategies to manage the thinned pipe component were prepared and applied to each unit, which was reflecting plant specific design, operation, and inspection history, so that the structural integrity of piping system can be maintained. An alternative integrity assessment criterion and a computer program for thinned piping items were developed for the first time in the world, which was directly applicable to the secondary piping system of nuclear power plant. The thinned pipe management program is applied to all domestic nuclear power plants as a standard procedure form so that it contributes to preventing an accident caused by FAC.

The Economic Analysis of Notional and Global Interest Politics for International Environmental Standards

  • Hwang, Uk
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.103-127
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    • 2007
  • This study presents the political economics models to explore the political landscape of special interest groups influencing the government's decision making process for implementing international environmental standard. Starting with the popular menu-auction types of lobbying frameworks in the literature, the study extends its scope of research to multi-principal and multi-agency based international interest group politics and its hybrid case in order to bring the interaction of the relevant interest politics to the fore. Within a specific factor model of international trade between 2 small open economies, we compare the political equilibrium environmental standards in different institutional frameworks which can be feasible in the sense of recently growing role of environmental interest group. Although the conventional finding suggests that cooperative bargaining between the two countries can attain the globally optimal level of the standard, the paper rather explains that the cooperation between the national interest groups and the hybrid case also generate the stricter standard then national interest politics usually do.

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