• 제목/요약/키워드: Decision theory

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의학의 뉴컴 문제와 인과적 결정 이론 (Medical Newcomb Problem and Causal Decision Theory)

  • 여영서
    • 논리연구
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.89-114
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    • 2009
  • 우리는 여러 종류의 인과적 믿음을 지니고 있으며, 인과적 믿음은 합리적인 결정을 내리는 과정에서 중요한 역할을 한다. 이 직관을 발전시킨 인과적 결정 이론은 행위자의 결정이 합리적이라는 설명을 제시하기 위해서 그 행위자의 결정이 의존하는 인과적 믿음을 명확하게 밝히는 것이 필요하다고 주장한다. 그럴 필요가 없다는 입장의 증거적 결정 이론은 뉴컴 문제를 통해 반박된다. 그러나 뉴컴 문제의 다양한 형태 중에서 의학의 뉴컴 문제가 증거적 결정 이론을 반박하는 데에 가장 성공적이라는 일반적 판단은 잘못이라는 점이 본 논문에서 논증된다. 본 논문은 의학의 뉴컴 문제는 인과 관계를 명료하게 진술함으로써 오히려 증거적 결정 이론을 반박하기 어려워진다는 점을 지적한다. 이 과정에서 본 논문은 증거적 결정 이론과 인과적 결정 이론 사이의 차이점을 드러내고, 합리적 결정 과정에서 인과적 믿음이 정확하게 어떤 역할을 하는지를 밝힌다.

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의사결정과 권력구조에 관한 이론적 고찰 (Research on Decision Making and Marital power Structure)

  • 이정우;장병옥
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.177-189
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    • 1987
  • The Purpose of this study is to present basic data for the more reasonable and successful home management through understanding decision-making pattern that is the degree of their participation in the decision-making and their joint decision-making. Also, this study is the preliminary research for more scientific and wider studies on the Decision-Making and Marital Power Structure in Korea. This study make investigation into decision-making and marital power which is published on the Journal of Korean home Economics Association and the Journal of Korean Home Management Association and thesis for a degree form 1960's to 1987. As a result, the higher wife's age, education level are the more their participation, The increase of the wife's participation in the decision-Making can be regarded as the affirmative phenomenon in the decision-making can be regarded as the affirmative phenomenon that their status are raised in home management and joint decision are carried out. In 1970's, not only the generalization of the empirical studies have been increased but also the general theories(resource theory, exchange theory, system theory ) have been developed.

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Fuzzy Sets and Decision Marking in Nuclear Science

  • Ruan, D.
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1993년도 Fifth International Fuzzy Systems Association World Congress 93
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    • pp.1058-1061
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    • 1993
  • Fuzzy set theory has been extensively researched in various fields of engineering. In nuclear science, a significant influence of fuzzy sets can be noticed. However, applications of fuzzy set theory to nuclear engineering is novel. In this paper, we start with a basic statement of the decision-making process based on fuzzy set theory, and then apply it to nuclear science with some practical applications (a fuzzy decision making in an accidental release to the atmosphere as well as in a problem of land suitability classification). We believe that the use of fuzzy set theory in nuclear science has potential advantages.

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사례 기반 결정 이론을 융합한 포텐셜 기반 강화 학습 (Potential-based Reinforcement Learning Combined with Case-based Decision Theory)

  • 김은선;장형수
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:컴퓨팅의 실제 및 레터
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    • 제15권12호
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    • pp.978-982
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문에서는 다수의 강화 학습 에이전트들의 학습 결과 및 Expert의 지식을 하나의 학습 알고리즘으로 융합하는 강화학습인 "potential-based" reinforcement learning(RL)기법에 불확실한 환경에서의 의사결정 알고리즘인 Case-based Decision Theory(CBDT)를 적용한 "RLs-CBDT"를 제안한다. 그리고 테트리스 실험을 통하여 기존의 RL 알고리즘에 비해 RLs-CBDT가 최적의 정책에 더 마르게 수렴하는 것을 보인다.

동적 지형분석에서의 전망이론 기반 NPC 의사결정 모델 (Prospect Theory based NPC Decision Making Model on Dynamic Terrain Analysis)

  • 이동훈
    • 한국게임학회 논문지
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2014
  • 본 논문에서는 행동경제학에서 주로 사용되는 전망이론을 게임 인공지능 분야에 도입하여 인간의 인지적 특성을 사실적으로 표현하고자 하는 관점에서 NPC의 의사결정 모델을 제안한다. 이를 위하여 효용 이론의 한계로 지적되었던 기준점 설정의 문제, 민감도 체감성, 손실 회피의 특징을 분석하고, 이를 게임 상에서의 NPC 의사결정 모델에 반영한다. 본 논문에서는 제안 모델을 동적 지형분석에 적용하였으며, 실험을 통해 NPC의 다양한 개성 부과 및 창발적인 행위를 유도할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

Decision making for Shipping Network based on Adaptive Cumulative Prospect Theory

  • Pham Thi Yen;Nguyen Phung Hung;Truong Ngoc Cuong;Hwan-Seong Kim
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2023년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.256-257
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    • 2023
  • This paper aims to propose optimal method to assess and cumulate the daily profit for liner shipping to support the shipping lines in making optimal decision with the highest average daily profit. This paper not only explains the actual calculated results align with decision-makers' behavior from concepts indicated in cumulative prospect theory but also contributes to an easy-to-apply method for liner shipping network predictability in and provides optimal decision-making is helpful for shipping managers for the best effective selection of the most appropriate alternative under uncertainties.

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Decision-Making of Determining the Start Time of Charging / Discharging of Electrical Vehicle Based on Prospect Theory

  • Liu, Lian;Lyu, Xiang;Jiang, Chuanwen;Xie, Da
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.803-811
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    • 2014
  • The moment when Electrical Vehicle (EV) starts charging or discharging is one of the most important parameters in estimating the impact of EV load on the grid. In this paper, a decision-making problem of determining the start time of charging and discharging during allowed period is proposed and studied under the uncertainty of real-time price. Prospect theory is utilized in the decision-making problem of this paper for it describes a kind of decision making behaviors under uncertainty. The case study uses the parameters of Springo SGM7001EV and adopts the historical realtime locational marginal pricing (LMP) data of PJM market for scenario reduction. Prospect values are calculated for every possible start time in the allowed charging or discharging period. By comparing the calculated prospect values, the optimal decisions are obtained accordingly and the results are compared with those based on Expected Utility Theory. Results show that with different initial State-of-Charge ($SoC_0$) and different reference points, the optimal start time of charging can be the one between 12 a.m. to 3 a.m. and optimal discharging starts at 2 p.m. or 3p.m. Moreover, the decision results of Prospect Theory may differ from that of the Expected Utility Theory with the reference points changing.

The Financial Behavior of Investment Decision Making Between Real and Financial Assets Sectors

  • HALA, Yusriadi;ABDULLAH, Muhammad Wahyuddin;ANDAYANI, Wuryan;ILYAS, Gunawan Bata;AKOB, Muhammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권12호
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    • pp.635-645
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    • 2020
  • This research was conducted to achieve several objectives and focus research was based on financial behavior theory and prospect theory as grounded theory e.g., investigate the financial decision-making behavior between financial and real assets investment, and confirm the relationship existing between herding behavior and overconfidence factors to the level of loss and regret aversion, and financial literacy into real assets investment decisions. The study used 220 real estate auction respondents as investor samples at the State Assets and Auction Service Office Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Data was collected through the use of a questionnaire consisting of 23 questions to measure the variables. Moreover, the research data passed through several feasibility tests like the inner and outer modeling by Partial Least Square - Structural equation model (PLS-SEM) while the hypotheses formulated were also tested to determine the magnitude of the variable relationship. Through the use of the direct and intervening test, loss and regret aversion variables have a positive and significant effect while financial literacy variables have no significant effect. There is a slight difference in the decision-making process for real assets and financial assets investors. Investment decision making behavior in the financial assets sector requires less complicated decisions compared to the decisions related to real assets investments.

도시 주부의 공평성 인지와 의사결정 유형에 관한 연구: 합산적/총체적 측정방법의 적용 (A Study on the Perception of Equity & the Decision-Making Styles: Application of Summated/Global Measure)

  • 이정우;강기연
    • 대한가정학회지
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    • 제38권5호
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2000
  • While equity theory started as a theory focusing upon the relationship between employee and employer, over the years the theory has been expanded to various other types of relationships including marital relationships. The present research among 251 housewives examines the perception of equity and the decision-making styles from the perspective of equity theory. The perception of equity was measured by the revised TUW scales and the Walster's global measure. Also, decision-making styles was assessed by means of the 'final-say' scale In line with the predictions, the results clearly showed that the perception of equity was a strong predictor variable to the joint decision-making.

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Rough Set 이론을 이용한 쓰레기 소각로의 퍼지제어 시스템을 위한 입출력 관계 설정 및 규칙 생성 (Determination of the Input/Output Relations and Rule Generation for Fuzzy Combustion Control System of Refuse Incinerator using Rough Set Theory)

  • 방원철;변증남
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1997년도 춘계학술대회 학술발표 논문집
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    • pp.81-86
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    • 1997
  • It is proposed, for fuzzy combustion control system of refuse incinerator to find the relationship between inputs and outputs and to generate rules to control by using rough set theory. It is not easy to find out the corresponding inputs for each output and the control rules with incomplete or imprecise information consisting expert knowledge, process and manipulator values in the field, and operation manual for the given system. Most decision problems can be formulated employing decision table formalism. A decision table on fuzzy combustion control system for refuse incinerator is simplified and produces control(rules). The I/O realtions and the control rules found by rough set theory are compared with the previous result.

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