• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision model

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Decision Making and Learning in Complex Organization : Learning Approach of Garbage Can Model (복잡한 조직에서의 의사결정과 학습 -쓰레기통 모형(Garbage Can Model)의 학습 적용-)

  • Oh, Young-Min;Jung, Kyoung-Ho
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.57-71
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    • 2008
  • This research paper describes a complex and vague settings in which organization makes a decision and explains a role of decision maker's learning process. The original paper, written by Cohen, March, Olsen in 1972, said that all members of organization depended on the technology taken through trials and errors, which is the 'learning' process literally. But they intended to exclude the learning process in their simulation model because their PORTRAN model couldn't replicate the learning concept. As a result, they couldn't explain how all agents of garbage can simulation model resolve the problem dynamically. To overcome this original paper's limitations, we try to rebuild a learning process simulation model using by system dynamics approach that can capture the linkage between organization leanings and agents-based decision-makings. Our learning simulation results reveal two points. First, decision maker's leanings process improves the efficiency of decision making in complex situation. Second, group learning shows a superior efficiency to an individual learning because group members share organizational memory and energy.

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Development of CTP Selection Methodology of Semiconductor Equipment Line Using AHP and Fuzzy Decision Model (AHP 및 Fuzzy 의사결정 모형을 활용한 반도체 장치라인의 CTP 선정 방법론 개발)

  • Jeong, Jaehwan;Kim, Jungseop;Kim, Yeojin;Lee, Jonghwan
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.6-13
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    • 2021
  • Cases and studies on the selection method of CTQ are relatively active, but there are few cases or studies on the selection method of CTP which is important in the device industry. In fact, many companies simply select and manage CTP from the point of contact based on their experience and intuition. The purpose of this study is to present an evaluation model and a mathematical decision model for rational and systematic CTP selection to improve the process quality of semiconductor equipment lines. In the evaluation model, AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis technique was applied to show objective and quantitative figures, and Fuzzy decision-making model was used to solve the ambiguity and uncertainty in the decision-making process. Decision Value (DV) was presented. The subjects were 22 process factors managed in the Plating Process that the representative equipment line can do. As a result, the evaluation model proposed in this study can support more efficient and effective decision-making for process quality improvement by more objectively measuring the problem of subjective CTP selection in manufacturing sites.

Unseen Model Prediction using an Optimal Decision Tree (Optimal Decision Tree를 이용한 Unseen Model 추정방법)

  • Kim Sungtak;Kim Hoi-Rin
    • MALSORI
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    • no.45
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2003
  • Decision tree-based state tying has been proposed in recent years as the most popular approach for clustering the states of context-dependent hidden Markov model-based speech recognition. The aims of state tying is to reduce the number of free parameters and predict state probability distributions of unseen models. But, when doing state tying, the size of a decision tree is very important for word independent recognition. In this paper, we try to construct optimized decision tree based on the average of feature vectors in state pool and the number of seen modes. We observed that the proposed optimal decision tree is effective in predicting the state probability distribution of unseen models.

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A Model to Support Spatial Decision Making for Selection of Ecotourism Sites in Urban and Regional Area (도시 및 지역의 생태관광지 선정을 위한 공간의사결정지원 평가모델)

  • Lee, Gwan-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2009
  • A spatial decision making process is needed when a local government tries to make polices and plans for eco-tourism in urban and regional site scale. This study aimed to suggest an assessment model to support spatial decision making on planning and making polices for eco-tourism. The model composes 6 stages of 'setting up ecogeographic territories'. 'value analysis method as ecotourism resources' 'synthetic assessing', 'grading values', 'selecting main resources for ecotourism' and 'spatial decision making support'. Applying the model to Shiheung city in Kyounggi province, validity was secured. By using the model, it was possible to make some decisions effectively such as selection of ecotourism resources, decision of the priorities of polices for ecotourism, and setting up the type of ecotourism to be introduced. In addition, by visualizing high valued resources and areas for ecotourism it w possible to support to make plans and policies effectively.

Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model Using Quality Function Deployment (QFD) Method for the Most Suitable Temporary Earth Retaining System

  • Jung, Bae Yu;Byung, Cho Han;Jin, Han Sang;Won, Kwon;Ho, Jo Jae;Youl, Chun Jae
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.620-621
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the multi-criteria decision-making model based on Quality Function Deployment Method is proposed. Multicriteria decision-making is an attempt to link QFD method with the TOPSIS. By this effort, a model that makes client's decision-making more rational and objective in design phase is suggested. The multi-criteria decisionmaking model confirming to the Owner's requirements will improve the productivity of the construction industry and the satisfaction of the customer. Further study extending the range of the requirements, not only the Owner's requirement will be necessary to cover the various factors as much as possible. And then, finally as a flexible platform to achieve a sustainable quality management, web-based multi-criteria decision-making model can be utilized by the relevant stakeholders simultaneously with the feed-back and sharing the necessary informations.

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Performance Comparison Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Models for Estimating Remaining Capacity of Lithium-Ion Batteries

  • Kyu-Ha Kim;Byeong-Soo Jung;Sang-Hyun Lee
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.310-314
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to predict the remaining capacity of lithium-ion batteries and evaluate their performance using five artificial intelligence models, including linear regression analysis, decision tree, random forest, neural network, and ensemble model. We is in the study, measured Excel data from the CS2 lithium-ion battery was used, and the prediction accuracy of the model was measured using evaluation indicators such as mean square error, mean absolute error, coefficient of determination, and root mean square error. As a result of this study, the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of the linear regression model was 0.045, the decision tree model was 0.038, the random forest model was 0.034, the neural network model was 0.032, and the ensemble model was 0.030. The ensemble model had the best prediction performance, with the neural network model taking second place. The decision tree model and random forest model also performed quite well, and the linear regression model showed poor prediction performance compared to other models. Therefore, through this study, ensemble models and neural network models are most suitable for predicting the remaining capacity of lithium-ion batteries, and decision tree and random forest models also showed good performance. Linear regression models showed relatively poor predictive performance. Therefore, it was concluded that it is appropriate to prioritize ensemble models and neural network models in order to improve the efficiency of battery management and energy systems.

A SCM System Selection Problem using AHP Technique based on Benefit/Cost Analysis (편익/비용분석 기반의 AHP 기법을 이용한 SCM 시스템 선정 모델)

  • Seo, Kwang-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.153-158
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    • 2009
  • An optimal selection problem of SCM system is one of the critical issues for the company's competitiveness and performance under global economy. This paper presents a hierarchy model consisted of characteristic factors for introducing SCM system and an AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) based decision-making model for SCM system evaluation and selection. The proposed model can systematically construct the objectives of SCM system selection to meet the business goals. This paper focuses on selecting an optimal SCM system considering both all decision factors and sub-decision factors of a hierarchy model. Especially, the benefit/cost analysis is applied to choose SCM system. A case study shows the feasibility of the proposed model and the model can help a company to make better decision-making in the SCM system selection problem.

Development of Integrated Water Quality Management Model for Rural Basins using Decision Support System. (의사결정지원기법을 이용한 농촌유역 통합 수질관리모형의 개발)

  • 양영민
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2000
  • A decision support system DSS-WQMRA (Decision Support System-Water Quality Management in Rural Area) was developed to help regional planners for the water quality management in a rural basin. The integrated model DSS-WQMRA, written in JAVA, includes four subsystems such as a GIS, a database, water quality simulation models and a decision model. In the system, the GIS deals with landuse and the location of pollutant sources. The database manages each data and supplies input data for various water quality simulation models. the water quality simulation model is composed of the GWLF( Generalized Watershed Loading Function), PCLM(Pollutant Loading Calculation Module) and the WASP5 model. The decision model based on mixed integer programming is designed to determine optimal costs and thus allow the selection of managemental practices to meet the water quality criteria. The methodology was tested with an example application in the Bokha River Basin, Kyunggi Province in Korea. It was proved that the integrated model DSS-WQMRA could be very useful for water quality management including the non-point source pollution in rural areas.

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Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making Considering the Willingness to Reject and the Indifferent Preference (거부 및 무차별 선호 조건을 고려한 다기준 그룹 의사결정)

  • Choi, Ji-Yoon;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2012
  • The paper deals with the development of a model for group decision making under multiple criteria. The Multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM) is the process to determine the best compromise solution in a set of competing alternatives that are evaluated by decision makers having their own preferences on conflicting objectives. For MCGDM, we propose a Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model that implements a revised median approach by noticing that the original median approach cannot consider the willingness to reject and the indifferent preference conditions. The proposed MIP model tries to select a common best Pareto-optimal solution by maximizing the overall desirability considering the willingness to reject and the indifferent preference that represent the tolerance measure of each decision maker. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we compared the results of the proposed model with those of the median approach. The results showed that the proposed MIP model produces more realistic and better compromised alternative by incorporating the decision maker's willingness to reject and the indifferent preferences over each criteria.

A Development of Suicidal Ideation Prediction Model and Decision Rules for the Elderly: Decision Tree Approach (의사결정나무 기법을 이용한 노인들의 자살생각 예측모형 및 의사결정 규칙 개발)

  • Kim, Deok Hyun;Yoo, Dong Hee;Jeong, Dae Yul
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.249-276
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    • 2019
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model and decision rules for the elderly's suicidal ideation based on the Korean Welfare Panel survey data. By utilizing this data, we obtained many decision rules to predict the elderly's suicide ideation. Design/methodology/approach This study used classification analysis to derive decision rules to predict on the basis of decision tree technique. Weka 3.8 is used as the data mining tool in this study. The decision tree algorithm uses J48, also known as C4.5. In addition, 66.6% of the total data was divided into learning data and verification data. We considered all possible variables based on previous studies in predicting suicidal ideation of the elderly. Finally, 99 variables including the target variable were used. Classification analysis was performed by introducing sampling technique through backward elimination and data balancing. Findings As a result, there were significant differences between the data sets. The selected data sets have different, various decision tree and several rules. Based on the decision tree method, we derived the rules for suicide prevention. The decision tree derives not only the rules for the suicidal ideation of the depressed group, but also the rules for the suicidal ideation of the non-depressed group. In addition, in developing the predictive model, the problem of over-fitting due to the data imbalance phenomenon was directly identified through the application of data balancing. We could conclude that it is necessary to balance the data on the target variables in order to perform the correct classification analysis without over-fitting. In addition, although data balancing is applied, it is shown that performance is not inferior in prediction rate when compared with a biased prediction model.