• Title/Summary/Keyword: Data uncertainty

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The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed (기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.33-50
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    • 2009
  • The impact on hydrologic components considering future potential climate, land use change and vegetation cover information was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated (1999 - 2000) and validated (2001 - 2002) for the upstream watershed ($260.4\;km^2$) of Gyeongancheon water level gauging station with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.77 to 0.60 and 0.79 to 0.60, respectively. Two GCMs (MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM) future weather data of high (A2), middle (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the data was corrected by 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model) and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. Three periods data of 2010 - 2039 (2020s), 2040 - 2069 (2050s), 2070 - 2099 (2080s) were prepared. To reduce the uncertainty of land surface conditions, future land use and vegetation canopy prediction were tried by CA-Markov technique and NOAA NDVI-Temperature relationship respectively. MIROC3.2 hires and ECHAM5-OM showed increase tendency in annual streamflow up to 21.4 % for 2080 A1B and 8.9 % for 2050 A1B scenario respectively. The portion of future predicted ET about precipitation increased up to 3 % in MIROC3.2 hires and 16 % in ECHAM5-OM respectively. The future soil moisture content slightly increased compared to 2002 soil moisture.

Monitoring of Atmospheric Aerosol using GMS-5 Satellite Remote Sensing Data (GMS-5 인공위성 원격탐사 자료를 이용한 대기 에어러솔 모니터링)

  • Lee, Kwon Ho;Kim, Jeong Eun;Kim, Young Jun;Suh, Aesuk;Ahn, Myung Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2002
  • Atmospheric aerosols interact with sunlight and affect the global radiation balance that can cause climate change through direct and indirect radiative forcing. Because of the spatial and temporal uncertainty of aerosols in atmosphere, aerosol characteristics are not considered through GCMs (General Circulation Model). Therefor it is important physical and optical characteristics should be evaluated to assess climate change and radiative effect by atmospheric aerosols. In this study GMS-5 satellite data and surface measurement data were analyzed using a radiative transfer model for the Yellow Sand event of April 7~8, 2000 in order to investigate the atmospheric radiative effects of Yellow Sand aerosols, MODTRAN3 simulation results enable to inform the relation between satellite channel albedo and aerosol optical thickness(AOT). From this relation AOT was retreived from GMS-5 visible channel. The variance observations of satellite images enable remote sensing of the Yellow Sand particles. Back trajectory analysis was performed to track the air mass from the Gobi desert passing through Korean peninsular with high AOT value measured by ground based measurement. The comparison GMS-5 AOT to ground measured RSR aerosol optical depth(AOD) show that for Yellow Sand aerosols, the albedo measured over ocean surfaces can be used to obtain the aerosol optical thickness using appropriate aerosol model within an error of about 10%. In addition, LIDAR network measurements and backward trajectory model showed characteristics and appearance of Yellow Sand during Yellow Sand events. These data will be good supporting for monitoring of Yellow Sand aerosols.

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Correlation among Ownership of Home Appliances Using Multivariate Probit Model (다변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 가전제품 구매의 상관관계 분석)

  • Kim, Chang-Seob;Shin, Jung-Woo;Lee, Mi-Suk;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2009
  • As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.

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Validation of GOCI-II Products in an Inner Bay through Synchronous Usage of UAV and Ship-based Measurements (드론과 선박을 동시 활용한 내만에서의 GOCI-II 산출물 검증)

  • Baek, Seungil;Koh, Sooyoon;Lim, Taehong;Jeon, Gi-Seong;Do, Youngju;Jeong, Yujin;Park, Sohyeon;Lee, Yongtak;Kim, Wonkook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_1
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    • pp.609-625
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    • 2022
  • Validation of satellite data products is critical for subsequent analysis that is based on the data. Particularly, performance of ocean color products in turbid and shallow near-land ocean areas has been questioned for long time for its difficulty that stems from the complex optical environment with varying distribution of water constituents. Furthermore, validation with ship-based or station-based measurements has also exhibited clear limitation in its spatial scale that is not compatible with that of satellite data. This study firstly performed validation of major GOCI-II products such as remote sensing reflectance, chlorophyll-a concentration, suspended particulate matter, and colored dissolved organic matter, using the in-situ measurements collected from ship-based field campaign. Secondly, this study also presents preliminary analysis on the use of drone images for product validation. Multispectral images were acquired from a MicaSense RedEdge camera onboard a UAV to compensate for the significant scale difference between the ship-based measurements and the satellite data. Variation of water radiance in terms of camera altitude was analyzed for future application of drone images for validation. Validation conducted with a limited number of samples showed that GOCI-II remote sensing reflectance at 555 nm is overestimated more than 30%, and chlorophyll-a and colored dissolved organic matter products exhibited little correlation with in-situ measurements. Suspended particulate matter showed moderate correlation with in-situ measurements (R2~0.6), with approximately 20% uncertainty.

Comparison between Solar Radiation Estimates Based on GK-2A and Himawari 8 Satellite and Observed Solar Radiation at Synoptic Weather Stations (천리안 2A호와 히마와리 8호 기반 일사량 추정값과 종관기상관측망 일사량 관측값 간의 비교)

  • Dae Gyoon Kang;Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2023
  • Solar radiation that is measured at relatively small number of weather stations is one of key inputs to crop models for estimation of crop productivity. Solar radiation products derived from GK-2A and Himawari 8 satellite data have become available, which would allow for preparation of input data to crop models, especially for assessment of crop productivity under an agrivoltaic system where crop and power can be produced at the same time. The objective of this study was to compare the degree of agreement between the solar radiation products obtained from those satellite data. The sub hourly products for solar radiation were collected to prepare their daily summary for the period from May to October in 2020 during which both satellite products for solar radiation were available. Root mean square error (RMSE) and its normalized error (NRMSE) were determined for daily sum of solar radiation. The cumulative values of solar radiation for the study period were also compared to represent the impact of the errors for those products on crop growth simulations. It was found that the data product from the Himawari 8 satellite tended to have smaller values of RMSE and NRMSE than that from the GK-2A satellite. The Himawari 8 satellite product had smaller errors at a large number of weather stations when the cumulative solar radiation was compared with the measurements. This suggests that the use of Himawari 8 satellite products would cause less uncertainty than that of GK2-A products for estimation of crop yield. This merits further studies to apply the Himawari 8 satellites to estimation of solar power generation as well as crop yield under an agrivoltaic system.

Development of a Deterministic Optimization Model for Design of an Integrated Utility and Hydrogen Supply Network (유틸리티 네트워크와 수소 공급망 통합 네트워크 설계를 위한 결정론적 최적화 모델 개발)

  • Hwangbo, Soonho;Han, Jeehoon;Lee, In-Beum
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.603-612
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    • 2014
  • Lots of networks are constructed in a large scale industrial complex. Each network meet their demands through production or transportation of materials which are needed to companies in a network. Network directly produces materials for satisfying demands in a company or purchase form outside due to demand uncertainty, financial factor, and so on. Especially utility network and hydrogen network are typical and major networks in a large scale industrial complex. Many studies have been done mainly with focusing on minimizing the total cost or optimizing the network structure. But, few research tries to make an integrated network model by connecting utility network and hydrogen network In this study, deterministic mixed integer linear programming model is developed for integrating utility network and hydrogen network. Steam Methane Reforming process is necessary for combining two networks. After producing hydrogen from Steam-Methane Reforming process whose raw material is steam vents from utility network, produced hydrogen go into hydrogen network and fulfill own needs. Proposed model can suggest optimized case in integrated network model, optimized blueprint, and calculate optimal total cost. The capability of the proposed model is tested by applying it to Yeosu industrial complex in Korea. Yeosu industrial complex has the one of the biggest petrochemical complex and various papers are based in data of Yeosu industrial complex. From a case study, the integrated network model suggests more optimal conclusions compared with previous results obtained by individually researching utility network and hydrogen network.

Fragility Analysis Method Based on Seismic Performance of Bridge Structure considering Earthquake Frequencies (지진 진동수에 따른 교량의 내진성능기반 취약도 해석 방법)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Chung, Young-Soo;Yang, Dong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents a systematic approach for estimating fragility curves and damage probability matrices for different frequencies. Fragility curves and damage probability indicate the probabilities that a structure will sustain different degrees of damage at different ground motion levels. The seismic damages are to achieved by probabilistic evaluation because of uncertainty of earthquakes. In contrast to previous approaches, this paper presents a method that is based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of the structure using empirical data. This paper presents the probability of damage as a function of peak ground acceleration and estimates the probability of five damage levels for prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge pier subjected to given ground acceleration. At each level, 100 artificial earthquake motions were generated in terms of soil conditions, and nonlinear time domain analyses was performed for the damage states of PSC bridge pier structures. These damage states are described by displacement ductility resulting from seismic performance based on existing research results. Using the damage states and ground motion parameters, five fragility curves for PSC bridge pier with five types of dominant frequencies were constructed assuming a log-normal distribution. The effect of dominant frequences was found to be significant on fragility curves.

Impact Assessment of Spatial Resolution of Radar Rainfall and a Distributed Hydrologic Model on Parameter Estimation (레이더 강우 및 분포형 수문모형의 공간해상도가 매개변수 추정에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Noh, Seong Jin;Choi, Shin Woo;Choi, Yun Seok;Kim, Kyung Tak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.1443-1454
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we assess impact of spatial resolution of radar rainfall and a distributed hydrologic model on parameter estimation and rainfall-runoff response. Radar data measured by S-band polarimetric radar located at Mt. Bisl in the year of 2012 are used for the comparative study. As different rainfall estimates such as R-KDP, R-Z, and R-ZDR show good agreement with ground rainfall, R-KDP are applied for rainfall-runoff modeling due to relatively high accuracy in terms of catchment averaged and gauging point rainfall. GRM (grid based rainfall-runoff model) is implemented for flood simulations at the Geumho River catchment with spatial resolutions of 200m, 500m, and 1000m. Automatic calibration is performed by PEST (model independent parameter estimation tool) to find suitable parameters for each spatial resolution. For 200m resolution, multipliers of overlandflow and soil hydraulic conductivity are estimated within stable ranges, while high variations are found from results for 500m and 1000m resolution. No tendency is found in the estimated initial soil moisture. When parameters estimated for different spatial resolution are applied for other resolutions, 200m resolution model shows higher sensitivity compared to 1000m resolution model.

The Effect of Organizational Performance on the Human Resource Management System - Focus on Mediating Effect of Human Resource Flexibility - (인적자원관리시스템이 조직성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 인적자원 유연성의 매개효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Yun, Jun-Seop;Kim, Jong-Kwan
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.135-153
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    • 2014
  • Tendencies such as the increasing spread of market globalization, new technological developments, the reduction of product life cycles and aggressive competition, are generating high levels of environmental changes and uncertainty for organizations of all types. these circumstances require rapid responses through adaptation of organizational attitudes and capabilities, which lead to innovative management approaches and organizational methods. Human resource management researchers have struggled to elaborate the underlying mechanism explaining how human resource systems relate to organizational performance after universalistic perspectives were supported by a majority of studies investigating the positive relationship between human resource management system and firm performance. To fill the void, hypotheses in this study predicted human resource flexibility that would mediate the relationship between human resource management system and firm performance. The research model among the variables in this study was as follows: These theoretical models were tested with a sample of 138 firms in Korea. The analysis of data was undertaken by using AMOS. The Summary of the verification results is follows: Firstly, most of human resource management system and human resource flexibility had positive effects on human resource performance Secondly, most of human resource management system and human resource flexibility had positive effects on firm's financial performance Thirdly, human resource flexibility had mediated the relationship between human resource management system and firm performance The results of the present research may be demonstrated that organizations or managers could achieve a high level of management practices that lead to firm performance by enabling human resource to be flexible through high performance human resource management system.

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