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Development of Traffic Accident frequency Prediction Model by Administrative zone - A Case of Seoul (소규모 지역단위 교통사고예측모형 개발 - 서울시 행정동을 대상으로)

  • Hong, Ji Yeon;Lee, Soo Beom;Kim, Jeong Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.1297-1308
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    • 2015
  • In Korea, the local traffic safety master plan has been established and implemented according to the Traffic Safety Act. Each local government is required to establish a customized traffic safety policy and share roles for improvement of traffic safety and this means that local governments lead and promote effective local traffic safety policies fit for local circumstances in substance. For implementing efficient traffic safety policies, which accord with many-sided characteristics of local governments, the prediction of community-based traffic accidents, which considers local characteristics and the analysis of accident influence factors must be preceded, but there is a shortage of research on this. Most of existing studies on the community-based traffic accident prediction used social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments in countries or cities due to the limit of collected data. For this reason, there was a limit in applying the developed models to the actual reduction of traffic accidents. Thus, this study developed a local traffic accident prediction model, based on smaller regional units, administrative districts, which were not omitted in existing studies and suggested a method to reflect traffic safety facility and policy variables that traffic safety policy makers can control, in addition to social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments, in the model and apply them to the development of local traffic safety policies. The model development result showed that in terms of accident exposure environments, road extension, gross floor area of buildings, the ratio of bus lane installation and the number of crossroads and crosswalks had a positive relation with accidents and the ratio of crosswalk sign installation, the number of speed bumps and the results of clampdown by police force had a negative relation with accidents.

Spatial Characteristics of Travelling Merchants and Consumers in Chongsan Periodic Markets of Okchon County, Korea (충북(忠北) 옥천군(沃川郡) 청산(靑山) 정기시(定期市) 출시자(出市者)의 공간적(空間的) 특성(特性))

  • Han, Ju-Seong;Kim, Bong-Kyeum
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.133-150
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    • 1996
  • This study is to clarify the market cycle of travelling merchants and the spatial behavior of consumer's commodity purchasing. its reasons and purchasing region of each commodity in Chongsan of Chongsan Myun(village) periodic markets, that is one of the lowest central places in Okchon county. The data used are the results of interviews with 58 travelling merchants on June 22 and July 17, 1994, and questionaire survey taken to parents of students of Chongsan middle school of Chongsan Myun in Okchon county. Study area is typical agricultural regions taking the role of central places to provide rural service and is comparatively important periodic markets. Some of findings are summarized as follows: (1) Until 1980's. appearance of closed periodic markets is caused by the population decrease in rural region, income increase, and rising of living level according to the Five Years Planning of Economic Development, appearance of chain stores of agricultural co-coperative and of supermarkets,. changes in distribution mechanisim by increasing consignment volume of agricultural products through agricultural co-coperative, and the development of transportation in Okchon county. These, too, became the reasons for the decline of the Chongsan periodic markets in Okchon county. (2) Most of the travelling merchants visiting the Chongsan periodic markets are in their 50's of age, and they sell the miscellaneous commodities and agricultural products. And about one-fourths of travelling merchants reside in regions with periodic markets and in Okchon of higher order central places. (3) Travelling routes visting periodic markets can be simplified to five types. Major types of travelling routes are Chongsan periodic market$\rightarrow$Wonnam$\rightarrow$Boun, and Chongsan periodic market$\rightarrow$Yungdong$\rightarrow$Yongsan. The patterns of travelling merchants visiting periodic markets are classified into the type of everyday visiting of periodic markets over three days of five days from merchant's residence to market, and the type of merchants or consumers visiting one day's of five days. On days that travelling merchants don't visit periodic markets they purchase the commodities in Seoul, Taejon and Chongju. (4) Consumers who use periodic markets are from thirties to fifties years of age and most of them are employed in agriculture. Consumers visit periodic markets on foot or by bus, and visit two or three times in a month, and mainly purchase the commodities for one or two hours from about ten o'clock in the morning. (5) Consumers purchase the necessaries of life in periodic markets, and other commodities are purchased in Taejon city, Youngdong, and Boun Eup(town). But consumers purchase the goods(convenience goods, shopping goods, and specialied goods) largerly in Chongsan, because additional expense and disadvantage after service with poor transportation service for purchased goods in others regions. Therefore, the hierarchies of central places by the consumer's purchasing behaviour can not be seem in dewellers in Chongsan and Chongseong Myun.

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A Study on the Locational Decision Factors of Discount Stores : The Case of Cheonan (종합슈퍼마켓의 입지 결정 요인에 관한 연구 : 천안상권을 중심으로)

  • So, Jang-Hoon;Hwang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we investigate several factors that affect the locational decision of discount stores by using previous studies on the marketing area and the location of commercial facilities. We selected 21 primary variables that are expected to influence the decision of store location and, by factor analysis, grouped them into five underlying factors. Among these, the demographic factor, which shows the potential purchasing power level, had the greatest impact on the locational decision for the store. However, we found individual stores positioned according to unique locational characteristics in addition to the demographic factor. It means that we have to additionally consider if the vicinity of the market is based on any physical properties. Many previous studies proposed four decision factors for store location: the economic factor, the demographic factor, the land utilization factor, and traffic factor. However, the fivefold factors-our distinctive contribution-are more concrete and persuasive according to Korean reality. We show that location preference is based on the following criteria: (1) the area is densely populated, (2) houses stand close together, (3) residents have a high income level, (4) road traffic is developed and easy to access, and (5) public transportation is well developed. The demographic factor has the greatest impact on the location of a discount store. The number of households has a greater relevance to the demographic factor than does the individual consumer. Second, discount stores relatively prefer places where houses are located close together because such places offer easy access to the market. Third, a place whose residents have a high income level will be preferred, with its large cars and excellent traffic conditions. Fourth, a location would be highly rated if the roads around commercial facilities are well developed and their accessibility is good. Finally, discount stores must be located close to bus stops because female consumers, including housewives-the most important customers-evaluate stores based on distance. In this research, the variable of consumer attitude and preference was excluded, and the location factors of discount stores were analyzed according to a microscopic view through physical spatial data. In the future, the opening of new discount stores based on the five factors indicated above will require a comparatively shorter time from the first project feasibility analysis. In addition, the result of our study can be applied to the field of public policy for constructing and attracting large-scale distribution facilities.

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A Dynamic Prefetch Filtering Schemes to Enhance Usefulness Of Cache Memory (캐시 메모리의 유용성을 높이는 동적 선인출 필터링 기법)

  • Chon Young-Suk;Lee Byung-Kwon;Lee Chun-Hee;Kim Suk-Il;Jeon Joong-Nam
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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    • v.13A no.2 s.99
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    • pp.123-136
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    • 2006
  • The prefetching technique is an effective way to reduce the latency caused memory access. However, excessively aggressive prefetch not only leads to cache pollution so as to cancel out the benefits of prefetch but also increase bus traffic leading to overall performance degradation. In this thesis, a prefetch filtering scheme is proposed which dynamically decides whether to commence prefetching by referring a filtering table to reduce the cache pollution due to unnecessary prefetches In this thesis, First, prefetch hashing table 1bitSC filtering scheme(PHT1bSC) has been shown to analyze the lock problem of the conventional scheme, this scheme such as conventional scheme used to be N:1 mapping, but it has the two state to 1bit value of each entries. A complete block address table filtering scheme(CBAT) has been introduced to be used as a reference for the comparative study. A prefetch block address lookup table scheme(PBALT) has been proposed as the main idea of this paper which exhibits the most exact filtering performance. This scheme has a length of the table the same as the PHT1bSC scheme, the contents of each entry have the fields the same as CBAT scheme recently, never referenced data block address has been 1:1 mapping a entry of the filter table. On commonly used prefetch schemes and general benchmarks and multimedia programs simulates change cache parameters. The PBALT scheme compared with no filtering has shown enhanced the greatest 22%, the cache miss ratio has been decreased by 7.9% by virtue of enhanced filtering accuracy compared with conventional PHT2bSC. The MADT of the proposed PBALT scheme has been decreased by 6.1% compared with conventional schemes to reduce the total execution time.

Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

The Abolition Type and The Regional Characteristics of The Elementary Schools in Chungbuk Province (忠淸北道의 國民學校 廢校類型과 그 地域的 特性)

  • ;Chae, Son-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.84-104
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    • 1994
  • The migration of population into the city has been on the increase according as Korea has been industrialized repidly since the 1960's. And there is a steady decrease in rural population. Thus lack of the number of the students forced many elementary Schools to be abolished. The aim of this study is to grasp the abolition types and the regional characteristics with the subject region of Chungbuk province. From the viewpoint of the increasing abolition of the elementary schools, I think it is very important to understand how the elementary schools have been abolished so far and predict how the subject region will have been changed in geography. Data for this study are based on Annual Establishment-Abolition Situation of the Schools published by Chungbuk office of Education in 1992, and many Kinds of the statistical reports, and the interview with the related. The results are as follows: 1. By examining the change of the number of the elementary schools and students in Chnugbuk, the numder of the students had also decreased since 1969 and was less than the half in 1990. As the number of the schools began to decrease ten years later than the students began to, the abolition of the elementary schools has started in reality from 1980's. 2. The 72 elementary schools were aboilshed between 1980 and 1992: the principal school is 9.7%, the branch school is 90.3%. The most fifteen schools are abolished in Yongdong-county and Chechon-county, and the least one school is abolished in Chechon-city and Okchon-county, and there is no abolition in Chongju-city and Chungju-city: According to the type of the abolition process, the least seven principal schools are abolished, and the principal school is reorganized as a branch school and twenty eight branch schools are abolished, and the most thirty seven branch schools are abolished. 3. When special change of the abolition is classified into the first perio (1980-1986) and the second period (1987-1992), in the first period the principal and branch schools were abolished and they are 13.9% of total abolition. The abolition out of them by building a dam is 60%. The principal schools in the submerged area though they have many students, were abolished. In the second period sixty two branch schools are abolished and they are 86.1% of total abolition. The most fifteen schools are abolished in Yongdong-county, thirteen in Chechon-county, seven in Tanyang-county, six in Chongwon-county, five in Chungwon-county and Koesan-county. Unlike the first period, the schools were abolished in this period because the number of students was so small. In this period sixty branch schools were abolished. All the students in the abolished schools except six schools transfered to the principal schools. The 58 school authorities help the students attend school by bus or support the expenses for attending school after that. 4. The abolition types of city, county and myon are classified into five types by the number of the abolished schools. The most forty nine abolished schools in type II are 68.1 of the total abolition. The least three abolished ones in type I are 12.5%. Considering the relation between the abolition type ane the number of schools and students, the number of the schools, increased in type I, II, III, V except IV from 1980 and then have decreased by abolition since 1980, while the more students decreased than they did in 1970 and the more the abolished school increases, the less the students decreases. The average students per school decreased in every abolition type and the most students decreased in type IV. 5. Considering the relation between the abolition type and the regional characteristics, most abolished schools were located between 100m and 300m above the sea level and it is 71% of the total abolition. The region without the abolition is high in the ratio of the cultivate land, ratio of rice field, and the part-time farmer, but the region with many abolition is low in the ratio of cultivated land. As for the manufacturing there are the most city, county and myon in the abolition type in Youngdong-county and Chechon-county where the manufacturing ratio of employing is low but Chongju-city without the abolition is a region where the manufacturing ratio is high. Consequently the development of the manufacturing causes the population to emigation out and the decrease of the population leads the transport is difficult of access, the facilities sold after being abolished are not being used in many ways. 7. Take an example of Youndong-county where the most schools were abolished, I have examined the school district and the population characteristics of the abolition. Though there were more villages, households, populations in the region that is higher than low above the sea level, the schools were abolished. Therefore we know that above the sea level had a great effect on the abolition. As a result of the regional analysis of the abolition, many schools were abolished by the artificial buildings such as a dam in the early 1980's but the schools in the late 1980's were abolished ten years later after the students decreased. More schools were abolished in the region where the manufacturing industry didn't develop. And the higher the school position was above the sea level, the sooner the school was abolished. It is also proved that both the beautiful natural scenery and accessibility are the important factor in using the abolished facilities practically.

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Health Status and Use of Health Care Services of the Elderly Utilizing Senior citizen Centers (경로당 노인의 건강상태와 건강관리서비스 이용 관련요인 분석)

  • Shin, Sun-Hye;Kim, Jin-Soon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.99-113
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    • 2002
  • For this study a sample of 205 people, 66 males and 139 females, over 65 years of age, residing in C-gu of S-si and utilizing senior centers, were selected, The objective of the study was to provide basic data for health promotion program development provided by health centers. A questionnaire was used to collect date on general characteristics, health status, social health status and utilization rate for health services. The instruments used in this study were the Lawton scale, to measure daily routine function, the MMSE-K developed by Folstein and modified to fit the Korea situation, for mental health status, and the CES-Dtool developed by Radloff, for emotional health status. the SPSS Window program was used to calculate percentages. Tests of significance were done using t-test and ANOVA. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify variables influencing the use of health services. The results are as follows : Of those utilizing senior citizen centers, 40.9% of males and 17.3% of the female thought they were healthy. The average score for IADL was 7.4. The daily routine of female respondents consisted of buying household articles and drugs, and other IADLs such as riding the bus or subway alone. These resulted in a higher score compared to males. For emotional health, 7.6% of the males reported depression compared to 21.6% of the females. For mental health, 48.5% of the males and 28.8% of the females were found to be in the group suspicious for dementia. On social health, 57.6% of the males and 62.6% of the females reported no intimate human relations. Of those older people who had close human relations, 52.5% of the males indicated a friend as the closest person and 53.8% of the females, their children. On use of health services, there was a significantly higher need for mobile medical care services treatment for those with lower education levels and status of window/widower. There was a significantly higher need for health exmination services for those with lower levels of exercise, greater satisfaction with sleep, higher levels of oral health care, and higher social contacts. In conclusion, there is a need to provide varied programs for the promotion of health, along with parallel resolution of social, psychological and economic issues. It is recommended that health services for elderly people provided by the health centers be implemented with full recognition of these characteristics and differences.

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