• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.144-153
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• 2003

The object of this paper is the probabilistic failure analysis on the cladding performance of WPF(Whole Pin Furnace) test fuel pins under transient conditions, and analysis of the KALIMER fuel pin using the preceding analysis. The cumulative damage estimation and Weibull probability estimation of WPF test are performed. The probabilistic method was adapted for these analyses to determine the effective thickness thinning due to eutectic penetration depth. In the results, it is difficult to assume that a brittle layer depth made by eutectic reaction is all of the thickness reduction due to cladding thinning. About 93% cladding thinning of the eutectic penetration depth is favorable as an effective thickness of cladding. And the unreliability of the KALIMER driver fuel pin under the same WPF test condition is lower than that of the WPF pin because of the higher plenum-fuel volume ratio and lower cladding inner radius vs. thickness ratio. KALIMER fuel pin developed from conceptual design has a more stable transient performance for a failure mechanism due to fission gas buildup than the WPF pin.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.135-148
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• 2013

Purpose: This paper presents a method to evaluate the stockpile reliability of propelling charge for performance and storage safety with storage time. Methods: We consider a performance failure level is the amount of muzzle velocity drop which is the maximum allowed standard deviation multiplied by 6. The lifetime for performance is estimated by non-linear regression analysis. The state failure level is assumed that the content of stabilizer is below 0.2%. Because the degradation of stabilizer with storage time has both distribution of state and distribution of lifetime, it must be evaluated by stochastic process method such as gamma process. Results: It is estimated that the lifetime for performance is 59 years. The state distribution at each storage time can be shown from probability density function of degradation. It is estimated that the average lifetime as $B_{50}$ life is 33 years from cumulative failure distribution function curve. Conclusion: The lifetime for storage safety is shorter than for performance and we must consider both the lifetime for storage safety and the lifetime performance because of variation of degradation rate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.23-34
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• 2009

This paper is described as an experimental analysis for the probabilistic directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to derive acceptable design rankings, PK factors, and PD factors. In order to determine an appropriate distribution for acceptable design rankings, 12 probability distribution functions were employed. The parameters were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood. The goodness of fit test was performed with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The Beta General distribution among the probability distributions was selected as an appropriate model for 2 lane roadways. On the other hand, the Weibull distribution is superior for 4 lanes. The method of the inverse cumulative distribution function came up with an acceptable design ranking of design for LOS D. An acceptable design ranking of 2 lanes is 190, while an acceptable design ranking for 4 lanes is 164. The PK factor and PD factor of 2 lanes was elicited for 0.119 (0.100-0.139) and 0.568 (0.545-0.590), respectively. On the other hand, the PK factor and PD factor for 4 lanes was elicited as 0.106 (0.097-0.114) and 0.571 (0.544-0.598), respectively.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.4B
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• pp.363-374
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• 2008

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve that is essential to calculate rainfall quantiles for designing hydraulic structures in Korea is generally formulated by regression analysis. In this study, IDF curve derived by the cumulative distribution function ("IDF by CDF") of the proper probability distribution function (PDF) of each site is suggested, and the corresponding parameters of IDF curve are computed using genetic algorithm (GA). For this purpose, IDF by CDF and the conventional IDF derived by regression analysis ("IDF by REG") were computed for 22 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) rainfall recording sites. Comparisons of RMSE (root mean squared error) and RRMSE (Relative RMSE) of rainfall intensities computed from IDF by CDF and IDF by REG show that IDF by CDF is more accurate than IDF by REG. In order to accommodate the effect of the recent intensive rainfall of Korea, the rainfall intensities computed by the two IDF curves are compared with that by at-site frequency analysis using the rainfall data recorded by 2006, and the result from IDF by CDF show the better performance than that from IDF by REG. As a result, it can be said that the suggested IDF by CDF curve would be the more efficient IDF curve than that computed by regression analysis and could be applied for Korean rainfall data.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.662-669
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• 1994

In the combustion system, the optimum spray conditions reduce the pollutant emission of exhaust gas and enhance the fuel efficiency. The spray characteristics-the drop size, the drop velocity, the number density and the mass flux, become increasingly important in the design of combustor and in testifying numerical simulation of spray flow in the combustor. The purposes of this study are to clarify the spray characteristics of twin-fluid nozzle and to offer the data for combustor design and the numerical simulation of a spray flow. Spatial drop diameter was measured by immersion sampling method. The mean diameter, size distribution and uniformity of drop were analyzed with variations of air/liquid mass flow ratio. The results show that the SMD increases with the liquid supply flow rate and decreases with the air supply velocity. The radial distribution of SMD shows the larger drops can diffuse farther to the boundary of spray. And the drop size range is found to be wider close to the spray boundary where the maximum SMD locates.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.270-282
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• 2001

A simple measure of uncertainty importance based on normalized metric distance to quantify the entire change of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) has been developed for use in probability safety assessments (PSAs). The metric distance measure developed in this study reflects the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution, white most of the existing uncertainty importance measures reflect the magnitude of relative contribution of input uncertainties to the output uncertainty. Normalization is made to make the metric distance measure a dimensionless quantity. The present measure has been evaluated analytically for various analytical distributions to examine its characteristics. To illustrate the applicability and strength of the present measure, two examples are provided. The first example is an application of the present measure to a typical problem of a system fault tree analysis and the second one is for a hypothetical non-linear model. Comparisons of the present result with those obtained by existing uncertainty importance measures show that the metric distance measure is a useful tool to express the measure of uncertainty importance in terms of the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.18 no.1_2
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• pp.497-503
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• 2005

This paper presents characterizations on the independence of the exponential and Pareto distributions by record values. Let ${X_{n},\;n {\ge1}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed(i.i.d) random variables with a continuous cumulative distribution function(cdf) F(x) and probability density function(pdf) f(x). $Let{\;}Y_{n} = max{X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_n}$ for n \ge 1. We say $X_{j}$ is an upper record value of ${X_{n},{\;}n\ge 1}, if Y_{j} > Y_{j-1}, j > 1$. The indices at which the upper record values occur are given by the record times {u(n)}, n \ge 1, where u(n) = $min{j|j > u(n-1), X_{j} > X_{u(n-1)}, n \ge 2}$ and u(l) = 1. Then F(x) = $1 - e^{-\frac{x}{a}}$, x > 0, ${\sigma} > 0$ if and only if $\frac {X_u(_n)}{X_u(_{n+1})} and X_u(_{n+1}), n \ge 1$, are independent. Also F(x) = $1 - x^{-\theta}, x > 1, {\theta} > 0$ if and only if $\frac {X_u(_{n+1})}{X_u(_n)}{\;}and{\;} X_{u(n)},{\;} n {\ge} 1$, are independent.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.104-111
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• 1988

This paper deals with the micro-surface-cracks behavior on the unnotched smooth specimens of Type 304 stainless steel at $593^{\circ}C$ in air under creep and creep-fatigue conditions that have 10 mim and 1 min load holding times respectively. The behaviors of the micro-surface-cracks have been visualized by means of surface replica method and optical micro-photography. The quantitative characteristics of initiation, growth and coalescence of micro-surface-cracks have been investigated by observing and measuring the crack growth behaviors. some of the important results are as follows: Main crack initiates at grain boundary in the early stage(10 to 20%)of its life time and grows through coalescence and finally leads to fracture. The distribution of micro-surface-crack length, 2a, can be plotted against the composite Weibull distribution. The growth rate of the main crack can be plotted against the stress intensity factor, crack tip opering displacement and J integral.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.27 no.4B
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• pp.345-352
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• 2002

In this paper, in order to evaluate the performance of IS-95 system reverse link in white gaussian noise and rayleigh fading environment, we suggest epochal proposal to improve computer run-time and its efficiency is verified in terms of the number of samples. MC(Monte Carlo) simulation is the most popular simulation technique lately, but MC simulation requires a number of samples at low bit error rate. Therefore, MC cannot avoid the limit of computer run-time. To alleviate these problems, we apply the suggested method called central moment technique to the reverse link of the IS-95 system and can obtain discrete probability mass functions from Nth order central moments of the less number of received signal samples than those required in MC. Continuous cumulative probability distribution function can be accurately estimated by using interpolation and the improvement effect for the number of samples is proven.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.10 no.1 s.30
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• pp.48-55
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• 2006

In order to establish the comprehensively, quantitatively predictable program to the fire and explosion accidents in the urban gas system, and to set up domestic criteria of societal risk, the collected urban gas accident data have been deeply analyzed. The Poisson probability distribution functions with t=5 for the database of the gas accidents in recent 11 year shows that 'careless work-explosion-pipeline' item has the lowest frequency, whereas 'joint loosening & erosion-release-pipeline' item has the highest frequency. And thus the proper counteractions must be carried out. The further works requires setting up successive database on the fire and explosion accidents systematically to obtain reliable analyses.