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An Experimental Analysis of a Probabilistic DDHV Estimation Model  

Jo, Jun-Han (한양대학교 교통정보센터)
Kim, Seong-Ho (한양대학교 교통시스템공학과)
No, Jeong-Hyeon (한양대학교 도시대학원)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.27, no.2, 2009 , pp. 23-34 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper is described as an experimental analysis for the probabilistic directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to derive acceptable design rankings, PK factors, and PD factors. In order to determine an appropriate distribution for acceptable design rankings, 12 probability distribution functions were employed. The parameters were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood. The goodness of fit test was performed with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The Beta General distribution among the probability distributions was selected as an appropriate model for 2 lane roadways. On the other hand, the Weibull distribution is superior for 4 lanes. The method of the inverse cumulative distribution function came up with an acceptable design ranking of design for LOS D. An acceptable design ranking of 2 lanes is 190, while an acceptable design ranking for 4 lanes is 164. The PK factor and PD factor of 2 lanes was elicited for 0.119 (0.100-0.139) and 0.568 (0.545-0.590), respectively. On the other hand, the PK factor and PD factor for 4 lanes was elicited as 0.106 (0.097-0.114) and 0.571 (0.544-0.598), respectively.
Keywords
Probabilistic Directional Design Hour Volume; Design Hourly Factor; Directional Distribution; Acceptable Design Ranking; Probability Distribution Function;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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