• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.30 no.5D
• /
• pp.497-504
• /
• 2010

In this paper, the author presents a reliability estimation technique to analyze the effects of traffic loads on pavement mean life based on the national highway database of Suwon and Uijeongbu region from 1999 to 2008. The estimation of the mean life, its standard deviation and reliability for pavement sections are calculated by using an appropriate distribution, Lognormal distribution, based on reliability theory. Furthermore, the probability paper method and Maximum likelihood estimation are both used to estimate parameters. The author found that mean life of newly constructed sections and over-layed sections is about 6.5 to 7.9 years and 7.3 to 9.1 years, respectively. The author also ascertained that the results of cumulative failure probability for pavement life between the proposed methods and observed data are similar. Such an assessment methodology and measures based on reliability theory can provide useful information for maintenance plans in pavement management systems as long as additional life data on pavement sections are accumulated.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.33 no.5
• /
• pp.519-530
• /
• 2023

Deep convection can make adverse effects on safe and efficient aviation operations by causing various weather hazards such as convectively-induced turbulence, icing, lightning, and downburst. To prevent such damage, it is necessary to accurately predict spatiotemporal distribution of deep convective area near the airport and airspace. This study developed a new index, the Aviation Convective Index (ACI), for deep convection, using the operational global Unified Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The ACI was computed from combination of three different variables: 3-hour maximum of Convective Available Potential Energy, averaged Outgoing Longwave Radiation, and accumulative precipitation using the fuzzy logic algorithm. In this algorithm, the individual membership function was newly developed following the cumulative distribution function for each variable in Korean Peninsula. This index was validated and optimized by using the 1-yr period of radar mosaic data. According to the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC) and True Skill Score (TSS), the yearly optimized ACI (ACI_YrOpt) based on the optimal weighting coefficients for 1-yr period shows a better skill than the no optimized one (ACI_NoOpt) with the uniform weights. In all forecast time from 6-hour to 48-hour, the AUC and TSS value of ACI_YrOpt were higher than those of ACI_NoOpt, showing the improvement of averaged value of AUC and TSS by 1.67% and 4.20%, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.41-56
• /
• 2021

The characteristics of the six rock cleavages(R1~H2) in Jurassic Hapcheon granite were analyzed using the distribution of ① microcrack lengths(N=230), ② microcrack spacings(N=150) and ③ Brazilian tensile strengths(N=30). The 18 cumulative graphs for these three factors measured in the directions parallel to the six rock cleavages were mutually contrasted. The main results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, the frequency ratio(%) of Brazilian tensile strength values(kg/㎠) divided into nine class intervals increases in the order of 60~70(3.3) < 140~150(6.7) < 100~110·110~120(10.0) < 90~100(13.3) < 80~90(16.7) < 120~130·130~140(20.0). The distribution curve of strength according to the frequency of each class interval shows a bimodal distribution. Second, the graphs for the length, spacing and tensile strength were arranged in the order of H2 < H1 < G2 < G1 < R2 < R1. Exponent difference(λS-λL, Δλ) between the two graphs for the spacing and length increases in the order of H2(-1.59) < H1(-0.02) < G2(0.25) < G1(0.63) < R2(1.59) < R1(1.96)(2 < 1). From the related chart, the six graphs for the tensile strength move gradually to the left direction with the increase of the above exponent difference. The negative slope(a) of the graphs for the tensile strength, suggesting a degree of uniformity of the texture, increases in the order of H((H1+H2)/2, 0.116) < G((G1+G2)/2, 0.125) < R((R1+R2)/2, 0.191). Third, the order of arrangement between the two graphs for the two directions that make up each rock cleavage(R1·R2(R), G1·G2(G), H1·H2(H)) were compared. The order of arrangement of the two graphs for the length and spacing is reverse order with each other. The two graphs for the spacing and tensile strength is mutually consistent in the order of arrangement. The exponent differences(ΔλL and ΔλS) for the length and spacing increase in the order of rift(R, -0.08) < grain(G, 0.14) < hardway(H, 0.75) and hardway(H, 0.16) < grain(G, 0.23) < rift(R, 0.45), respectively. Fourth, the general chart for the six graphs showing the distribution characteristics of the microcrack lengths, microcrack spacings and Brazilian tensile strengths were made. According to the range of length, the six graphs show orders of G2 < H2 < H1 < R2 < G1 < R1(< 7 mm) and G2 < H1 < H2 < R2 < G1 < R1(≦2.38 mm). The six graphs for the spacing intersect each other by forming a bottleneck near the point corresponding to the cumulative frequency of 12 and the spacing of 0.53 mm. Fifth, the six values of each parameter representing the six rock cleavages were arranged in the order of increasing and decreasing. Among the 8 parameters related to the length, the total length(Lt) and the graph(≦2.38 mm) are mutually congruent in order of arrangement. Among the 7 parameters related to the spacing, the frequency of spacing(N), the mean spacing(Sm) and the graph (≦5 mm) are mutually consistent in order of arrangement. In terms of order of arrangement, the values of the above three parameters for the spacing are consistent with the maximum tensile strengths belonging to group E. As shown in Table 8, the order of arrangement of these parameter values is useful for prior recognition of the six rock cleavages and the three quarrying planes.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.67-83
• /
• 2018

The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.51 no.3
• /
• pp.235-246
• /
• 2018

The main purpose of this study is to suggest a methodology for identifying vulnerable region in Choyang creek basin susceptible to soil losses based on runoff aggregation structure and energy expenditure pattern of natural river basin within the framework of power law distribution. To this end geomorphologic factors of every point in the basin of interest are extracted by using GIS, which define tractive force and stream power as well as drainage area, and then their complementary cumulative distributions are graphically analyzed through fitting them to power law distribution to identify the sensitive points within the basin susceptible to soil losses with respect to scaling regimes of tractive force and stream power. It is observed that the range of vulnerable region by scaling regime of tractive force is much narrower than by scaling regime of stream power. This result seems to be due to the tractive force is a kind of scale dependent factor which does not follow power law distribution and does not adequately reflect energy expenditure pattern of river basins. Therefore, stream power is preferred to be a more reasonable factor for the evaluation of soil losses. The methodology proposed in this study can be validated by visualizing the path of soil losses, which is generated from hill-slope process characterized by local slope, to the valley through fluvial process characterized by drainage area as well as local slope.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.39 no.2
• /
• pp.163-168
• /
• 2015

In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.105-112
• /
• 2007

Sediment transport model based on the Lagrangian concept considering the grain size distribution(GSD) was setup and the change of the sediment diffusion range was analysed in the condition of considering and not considering the GSD. The GSD curve is assumed as the Log-normal distribution function in order to consider the GSD with respect to the Lagrangian concept and the random numbers, i.e. sediment particles, are generated based on the distribution function. The sediment particles is assumed as the spherical type and the random numbers based on the sediment weight is converted to the sediment diameters. Sediment transport patterns are analysed by the settling simulation, in which the settling velocity is computed by the van Rijn formulae and the horizontal diffusion coefficient is used as the constant parameter. The diffusion patterns are very similar to the patterns with GSD condition. The diffusion range defined as the range including 90%, 99% sediment weight of the total sediment weight, however, is larger than without considering GSD condition in 90%-option and shorter than with considering GSD condition in 99-option, respectively. The diffusion range is defined as tile p-percentage of the cumulative sediment weight region with reference to the 50% region, 90%- option, 99%-option, respectively.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.9-16
• /
• 2017

As a preliminary study of enter or leaving traffic patterns of the Korea main port, port Management Information System (Port-MIS) data was used to check the volume of vessels entering and leaving the port of Busan, and three consecutive days from each seasons were selected for study. Selected 12-day General Information Center on Maritime Safety & Security (GICOMS) data was also used to analyze the traffic pattern in the main traffic lane of Busan port for dangerous goods carrier. Also, the distance between dangerous goods carriers and Oryukdo breakwater of east breakwater in the main traffic lane was analyzed. Collision probability was estimated using the cumulative probability distribution function of the normal distribution for the maritime traffic safety audit scheme based on the assumption that a ship's trajectory has a normal distribution for a section of the route. However, in case of entry or leaving thorough the Oryukdo breakwater and entry thorough the east breakwater, ship's sailing trajectories were revealed not to follow a normal distribution via regularity testing using a KS-test and SW-test. Especially in the north port, the tendency of the right side of the ship to pass was remarkable. It is desirable to develop a traffic model suitable for the characteristics of the port rather than to apply general traffic theories, and to apply this model to a maritime traffic safety diagnosis, so further research is needed.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.47 no.3
• /
• pp.615-624
• /
• 2020

An effective sampling method is necessary to monitor potato tuber moths (Phthorimaea operculella) because they are the biggest concern in potato-cultivating areas. In this study, a sequential sampling method was developed based on the results of field surveys of potato tuber moths in South Korea. Potato tuber moths were collected in fields cultivating potatoes at six sites, and their spatial distribution was investigated using the Taylor power law. The optimal sampling size and cumulative number of potato tuber moths in traps to stop sampling were determined based on the spatial distribution pattern and mean density of the collected potato tuber moths. Finally, the developed sampling method was applied to propose a control action, and its sampling efficiency was compared with that of the traditional sampling method using a binomial distribution. The potato tuber moths tended to aggregate; the optimal number was approximately 5 - 16 traps for sampling, and the number varied with the mean density of potato tuber moths according to the sampling sites. In addition, one, two, and three sites might require the following actions: Continued sampling, control, and no control, respectively. Sampling with the binomial distribution showed the minimum sample size was 12 when considering the economic threshold level. Here, we propose an effective sampling method that can be applied for future monitoring and field surveys of potato tuber moths in South Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.55 no.spc1
• /
• pp.1295-1303
• /
• 2022

As the role of water distribution networks (WDNs) becomes more important, identifying abnormal events (e.g., pipe burst) rapidly and accurately is required. Since existing approaches such as field equipment-based detection methods have several limitations, model-based methods (e.g., machine learning based detection model) that identify abnormal events using hydraulic simulation models have been developed. However, no previous work has examined the impact of data uncertainties on the results. Thus, this study compares the effects of measurement error-induced pressure data uncertainty in WDNs. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict nodal pressures and measurement errors are generated by using cumulative density function inverse sampling method that follows Gaussian distribution. Total of nine conditions (3 input datasets × 3 output datasets) are considered in the ANN model to investigate the impact of measurement error size on the prediction results. The results have shown that higher data uncertainty decreased ANN model's prediction accuracy. Also, the measurement error of output data had more impact on the model performance than input data that for a same measurement error size on the input and output data, the prediction accuracy was 72.25% and 38.61%, respectively. Thus, to increase ANN models prediction performance, reducing the magnitude of measurement errors of the output pressure node is considered to be more important than input node.