• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credit Rating

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A study on the supporting programs of policy funds for SMEs in post Korea-Japan FTA era. (한일 FTA에 대비한 중소기업 정책자금 지원제도에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Chong-Don
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.419-444
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we use case studies to analyze the supporting programs of policy funds for Korean and Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs). It is found that supporting firms are suitable to the excluded companies from financial institutions and excellent corporate credit rating. It is also shown that subordinated loan program as well as loan limit can be enlarged policy funds with priming water of private funds. Moreover, it shows that credit guarantee funding has a positively significant influence on long-term funding facility. Therefore, this findings can improve the complementary relationship between policy funds and financial institutions.

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A Case Study on Credit Analysis System in P2P: 8Percent, Lendit, Honest Fund (P2P 플랫폼에서의 대출자 신용분석 사례연구: 8퍼센트, 렌딧, 어니스트 펀드)

  • Choi, Su Man;Jun, Dong Hwa;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.229-247
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    • 2020
  • In the remarkable growth of P2P financial platform in the field of knowledge management, only companies with big data and machine learning technologies are surviving in fierce competition. The ability to analyze borrowers' credit is most important, and platform companies are also recognizing this capability as the most important business asset, so they are building a credit evaluation system based on artificial intelligence. Nonetheless, online P2P platform providers that offer related services only act as intermediaries to apply for investors and borrowers, and all the risks associated with the investments are attributable to investors. For investors, the only way to verify the safety of investment products depends on the reputation of P2P companies from newspaper and online website. Time series information such as delinquency rate is not enough to evaluate the early stage of Korean P2P makers' credit analysis capability. This study examines the credit analysis procedure of P2P loan platform using artificial intelligence through the case analysis method for well known the top three companies that are focusing on the credit lending market and the kinds of information data to use. Through this, we will improve the understanding of credit analysis techniques through artificial intelligence, and try to examine limitations of credit analysis methods through artificial intelligence.

A Study for Building Credit Scoring Model using Enterprise Human Resource Factors (기업 인적자원 관련 변수를 이용한 기업 신용점수 모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yung-Seop;Park, Joo-Wan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.423-440
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    • 2007
  • Although various models have been developed to establish the enterprise credit scoring, no model has utilized the enterprise human resource so far. The purpose of this study was to build an enterprise credit scoring model using enterprise human resource factors. The data to measure the enterprise credit score were made by the first-year research material of HCCP was used to investigate the enterprise human resource and 2004 Credit Rating Score generated from KIS-Credit Scoring Model. The independent variables were chosen among questionnaires of HCCP based on Mclagan(1989)'s HR wheel model, and the credit score of Korean Information Service was used for the dependent variables. The statistical method used for data analysis was logistic regression. As a result of constructing a model, 22 variables were selected. To see these specifically by each large area, 6 variables in human resource development(HRD) area, 15 in human resource management(HRM) area, and 1 in the other area were chosen. As a consequence of 10 fold cross validation, misclassification rate and G-mean were 30.81 and 68.27 respectively. Decile having the highest response rate was bigger than the one having the lowest response rate by 6.08 times, and had a tendency to decrease. Therefore, the result of study showed that the proposed model was appropriate to measure enterprise credit score using enterprise human resource variables.

The Effects of Export Insurance on Korea's Exportation before and after 2008 Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기에 따른 수출보험이 한국의 수출에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Mun-Seong
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.297-315
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we explore the effects of export insurance on the Korea's export by using the gravity model with the data of 112 countries that Korea exports on years of 2005 and 2009. For this model, we used the Korea export as a dependent variables and real GDP, distance between the two nations, export insurance, country credit rating of the Korea's counterpart countries and FTA were used as an independent variables. The results show that the underwriting performance of the export insurance and the sovereign credit rating of the export counterpart countries have the positive impact on Korea's export. Also, the impact of the export insurance is more increasing to the Korea exportation but the importance of the economy size of the export counterpart countries decreased after 2008 global financial crisis. Particularly, the influence to the export by the sovereign credit rating has diminished in that period and this seems to be due to the export insurance has increased. These results imply that the export insurance plays an important role to promote the Korea's exportation since 2008 global recession. Especially, if the recession continues, then there will be more crippling impact to the small-mid size companies rather than large size companies. Therefore, Korea government should do their best to continuously expand the export insurance for the purpose of increasing Korea exportation, expecially to the small-mid size companies.

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The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

A Study on the Impact of SNS Usage Characteristics, Characteristics of Loan Products, and Personal Characteristics on Credit Loan Repayment (SNS 사용특성, 대출특성, 개인특성이 신용대출 상환에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Wonhoon;Lee, Jaesoon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to investigate the potential of alternative credit assessment through Social Networking Sites (SNS) as a complementary tool to conventional loan review processes. It seeks to discern the impact of SNS usage characteristics and loan product attributes on credit loan repayment. To achieve this objective, we conducted a binomial logistic regression analysis examining the influence of SNS usage patterns, loan characteristics, and personal attributes on credit loan conditions, utilizing data from Company A's credit loan program, which integrates SNS data into its actual loan review processes. Our findings reveal several noteworthy insights. Firstly, with respect to profile photos that reflect users' personalities and individual characteristics, individuals who choose to upload photos directly connected to their personal lives, such as images of themselves, their private circles (e.g., family and friends), and photos depicting social activities like hobbies, which tend to be favored by individuals with extroverted tendencies, as well as character and humor-themed photos, which are typically favored by individuals with conscientious traits, demonstrate a higher propensity for diligently repaying credit loans. Conversely, the utilization of photos like landscapes or images concealing one's identity did not exhibit a statistically significant causal relationship with loan repayment. Furthermore, a positive correlation was observed between the extent of SNS usage and the likelihood of loan repayment. However, the level of SNS interaction did not exert a significant effect on the probability of loan repayment. This observation may be attributed to the passive nature of the interaction variable, which primarily involves expressing sympathy for other users' comments rather than generating original content. The study also unveiled the statistical significance of loan duration and the number of loans, representing key characteristics of loan portfolios, in influencing credit loan repayment. This underscores the importance of considering loan duration and the quantity of loans as crucial determinants in the design of microcredit products. Among the personal characteristic variables examined, only gender emerged as a significant factor. This implies that the loan program scrutinized in this analysis does not exhibit substantial discrimination based on age and credit scores, as its customer base predominantly consists of individuals in their twenties and thirties with low credit scores, who encounter challenges in securing loans from traditional financial institutions. This research stands out from prior studies by empirically exploring the relationship between SNS usage and credit loan repayment while incorporating variables not typically addressed in existing credit rating research, such as profile pictures. It underscores the significance of harnessing subjective, unstructured information from SNS for loan screening, offering the potential to mitigate the financial disadvantages faced by borrowers with low credit scores or those ensnared in short-term liquidity constraints due to limited credit history a group often referred to as "thin filers." By utilizing such information, these individuals can potentially reduce their credit costs, whereas they are supposed to accrue a more substantial financial history through credit transactions under conventional credit assessment system.

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A Study on Non-financial Factors Affecting the Insolvency of Social Enterprises (사회적기업의 부실에 영향을 미치는 비재무요인에 관한 연구 )

  • Yong-Chan, Chun;Hyeok, Kim;Dong-Myung, Lee
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to contribute to the reduction of the failure rate and social costs resulting from business failures by analyzing factors that affect the insolvency of social enterprises, as the role of social enterprises is increasing in our economy. The data used in this study were classified as normal and insolvent companies among social enterprises (including prospective social enterprises) that were established between 2009 and 2018 and received credit guarantees from credit guarantee institutions as of the end of June 2022. Among the collected data, 439 social enterprises with available financial information were targeted; 406 (92.5%) were normal enterprises, and 33 (7.5%) were insolvent enterprises. Through a literature review, eight non-financial factors commonly used for insolvency prediction were selected. The cross-analysis results showed that four of these factors were significant. Logistic regression analysis revealed that two variables, including corporate credit rating and the personal credit rating of the representative, were significant. Financial factors such as debt ratio, sales operating profit rate, and total asset turnover were used as control variables. The empirical analysis confirmed that the two independent variables maintained their influence even after controlling for financial factors. Given that government-led support and development policies have limitations, there is a need to shift policy direction so that various companies aspiring to create social value can enter the social enterprise sector through private and regional initiatives. This would enable the social economy to create an environment where local residents can collaborate to realize social value, and the government should actively support this.

Adjusted ROC and CAP Curves (조정된 ROC와 CAP 곡선)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Kim, Ji-Hun;Choi, Jin-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2009
  • Among others, ROC and CAP curves are used to explore the discriminatory power between the defaults and non-defaults, based on the distribution of the probability of default in credit rating works. ROC and CAP curves are plotted in terms of various ratios of the probability of default. Each point on ROC and CAP curves is calculated according to cutting points (scores) for classifying between defaults and non-defaults. In this paper, adjusted ROC and CAP curves are proposed by using functions of ratios of the probability of default. It is possible to recognize the score corresponding to a point oil these adjusted curves, and we can identify the best score to show the optimal discriminatory power. Moreover, we discuss the relationships between the best score obtained from the adjusted ROC and CAP curves and the score corresponding to Kolmogorov - Smirnov statistic to test the homogeneous distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults.

Optimal Threshold from ROC and CAP Curves (ROC와 CAP 곡선에서의 최적 분류점)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Choi, Jin-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.911-921
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    • 2009
  • Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) and Cumulative Accuracy Profile(CAP) curves are two methods used to assess the discriminatory power of different credit-rating approaches. The points of optimal classification accuracy on an ROC curve and of maximal profit on a CAP curve can be found by using iso-performance tangent lines, which are based on the standard notion of accuracy. In this paper, we offer an alternative accuracy measure called the true rate. Using this rate, one can obtain alternative optimal threshold points on both ROC and CAP curves. For most real populations of borrowers, the number of the defaults is much less than that of the non-defaults, and in such cases the true rate may be more efficient than the accuracy rate in terms of cost functions. Moreover, it is shown that both alternative scores of optimal classification accuracy and maximal profit are the identical, and this single score coincides with the score corresponding to Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic used to test the homogeneous distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults.

Analysis about relation of Won/Dollar Foreign Exchange Rate and Interest Rate of Korea (한국 원/달러환율과 금리의 관계분석)

  • 김종권
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.21 no.48
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 1998
  • International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. But, long-term & short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo & Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale corporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge fund were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea. But if external factors from depreciation of yen and China's renminbi are instable, interest rate is expected to increase from capital's outflows. Third, if it is to decrease instability of foreign exchange rate from increase in surplus of future current account, credit rating's upwardness, stability of yen and renminbi, foreign exchange rate is expected to be stable. It is expected to have continuous stability from short-term interest rate to long-term interest rate in this empirical test.

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