• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.25-40
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• 2001

This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP(System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large unclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to sturdy the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester(MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford(Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results(Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as unclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new unclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of unclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.

• Proceedings of the KWS Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.732-736
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• 2002

The introduction of newly developed intelligent and user-friendly robotics has opened a new era in shipbuilding. Together with traditional and low-cost mechanization a record level of welding automation rate has been achieved in the construction of cruise vessels. In the paper modem applications and recent developments of welding automation and robotics in shipbuilding have been described and some forecast for the future trends are given. Development in the field of shipyards will be continued with accelerated speed and we shall have interesting prospects for the near future. New laser techniques can boost the shipyards in a revolutional way when production is rapidly changing, materials will be lighter and quality demands are becoming more strict.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.338-343
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• 2013

Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) as a delivery method fully capitalizes on an integrated project team that takes advantage of the knowledge of all team members to maximize project outcomes. IPD is currently the highest form of collaboration available because all three core project stakeholders, owner, designer and contractor, are aligned to the same purpose. Compared with traditional project delivery approaches such as Design-Bid-Build (DBB), Design-Build (DB), and CM at-Risk, IPD is distinguished in that it eliminates the adversarial nature of the business by encouraging transparency, open communication, honesty and collaboration among all project stakeholders. The team appropriately shares the project risk and reward. Sharing reward is easy, while it is hard to fairly share a failure. So the compensation structure and the contingency in IPD are very different from those in traditional delivery methods and they are expected to encourage motivation, inspiration and creativity of all project stakeholders to achieve project success. This paper investigates the compensation structure in IPD and provides a method to determine the proper level of contingency allocation to reduce the risk of cost overrun. It also proposes a method in which contingency could be used as a functional monetary incentive when established to produce the desired level of collaboration in IPD. Based on the compensation structure scenario discovered, a probabilistic contingency calculation model was created by evaluating the random nature of changes and various risk drivers. The model can be used by the IPD team to forecast the probability of the cost overrun and equip the IPD team with confidence to really enjoy the benefits of collaborative team work.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.163-172
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• 2009

As customers are becoming increasingly important in corporate management, there is a growing demand for migration to customer-focused organizational structures. Unlike the manufacturing industry, the construction industry is non-iterative and non-standardized. As a result, a wide variety of materials, human resources, technologies and equipment must be mobilized in complex work activities to complete a structure. Consequently, surprises are bound to occur as such work activities progress. This paper intends to study a strategy that is designed to improve customer services for apartment building units. It aims primarily to focus on cost control and brand management. Housing tenants and industry experts are surveyed to collect input for issue analysis. In addition, the external circumstances and internal capabilities of major builders in Korea are analyzed, and a SWOT analysis is performed regarding market conditions related to customer service. These analysis results are utilized to develop a strategy implementation plan over different time frames, and the operational resources available for such strategy implementation are analyzed in order to forecast its performance. This research will facilitate communication between construction companies in Korea and their customers by proposing a customer service improvement strategy for apartment building units, and is expected to provide resource material for a strategic analysis of efforts to fully incorporate customer requirements

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.05a
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• pp.239-250
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• 1995

With speeding up the process of being international municipality, the gravity of lacking parking lots in Shanghai urban area, which directly blocks the traffic in the city, has been revealed. This thesis analyses present automobiles parking capability and forecasts the future's needs for the city. To solve the problem, the concept could be to expand parking areas in city center recently to relax the tention and to do thoughtful planning in the near future on the foundation of fully consideration the trend. The municipal government has to set up policy properly, amplify regulations, strenthern the administration and open up a path to raise founds. Berween road system administration which is dynamic and parking lot system administration which is static, there are a knot on macroscopic meaning and an interference as well. The coordination of these two systems would be reflested on the effects of whole municipal traffic adminisration. Basically, public parking lots are city's foundal facilities, just like roads, bridges, etc. The main problems now in Shanghai are large parking space demands, insufficient facilities, cheap parking expenses comparing with the cost of parking lots construcion and poor administration. According to the forecast on social economy development, there will be 580 thousand automobiles in Shanghai by the year 2000, and the amount of private cars will increase greatly. The frequency of automobiles going out will be 1.45 million per day. Public parking lots being able to afford 105 thousand units are needed. To satisfy the demands, the recent aim of planning should be speed up the parking lots construction, the planning objective in next period should be developing reasonably and exceed the demands properly. In order to realize the planning objective, the government has to formulate correct policy and amplify administration regulations. The government has to adopt both administration and economy means, including charging parking people reasonably, collect necessary taxes, bringing the parking lots planning into general municipality planning, opening up an effective path to raise founds, such as set up founds for parking lots construction, issue bonds and stocks, get loans at home and abroad, etc.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.295-300
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• 2006

In this research, risk factors which can raise project cost are identified in the initial stage and picked out through the decision maker's baseline. And also this probable risks are implemented to the project cash flow to estimate the contingency and to build a risk management system in the level of project. The risks that affect the projects profits were classified in two categories in the risk checklist. Firstly, financial risks derived from the external economic conditions for example exchange rate, escalation, interest rates etc. are analyzed through the stochastic methods, Monte-Carlo Simulation. Secondly, the project individual risks which are come from the project characteristics, for example country risk, clime, owner etc., are evaluated using the utility curve of the decision maker. Finally these risk analysis methods are used to forecast the actual project cash flow and final profit.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.79-92
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• 2011

Quantity take-off is one of the critical tasks that determine the cost of a construction project, and its result should be accurate and reliable. BIM-based quantity take-off is a very attractive process for practitioners since the quantity take-off can be done automatically in a fast and accurate way. However, the result of BIM-based quantity take-off can be varied depending on how BIM was modeled. As a project progresses, more detailed design information is getting available, and it can be expected that the degree of completeness and accuracy for the BIMbased quantity take-off is going to be improved as well. However, when estimation is performed at each stage of a project life-cycle, there is no way to measure or forecast how accurate of the quantity take-off result from the BIM data given at the current stage. Therefore, this research derived factors that affect the BIM-based quantity takeoff and developed a methodology and framework to measure and forecast the completeness of BIM-based quantity take-off. The measurement framework and index that are proposed by this research was verified and validated for their consistency and feasibility through six pilot projects.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.480-492
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• 2013

After the introduction of geothermal power generation technology based on engineering reservoir creation that can be applied on non-volcanic region, industrial need for studies on the efficient and economic execution of costly deep-depth drilling work becomes manifest increasingly. However, since it is very difficult to predict duration and cost of boring work with acceptable reliability because of many uncertain events during the execution, efficient and organized work management for drilling is not easily achievable. Especially, the round trip that discretely occurs because of the abrasion of bit takes more time as the depth goes deeper and it has a great impact on the work performance. Therefore, a technology that can simulate the occurrence timing and depth of round trip in advance and therefore optimize them is essentially required. This study divided the abrasion state of bit into eight steps for simulation cases and developed a forecast algorithm, i.e., TOSA which can analyze the depth and timing of round trip occurrence. A methodology that can divide a unit section for simulation has been suggested; while the Bourgoyne and Young model has been used for the forecast of drilling rates and bit abrasion extent by section. Lastly, the designed algorithm has been systemized for the convenience of the user.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.2 s.30
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• pp.138-147
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• 2006

The objective of this research is to explore a more precise forecasting method by applying Case-based Reasoning (CBR). The newly suggested method in this study enables project managers to forecast monthly expenditures with less time and effort by retrieving and referring only projects of a similar nature, while filtering out irrelevant cases included in database. For the purpose of accurate forecasting, 1) the choice of the numbers of referring projects and 2) the better selection among three levels ? which include a 20-work package level, a 7-major work package level, and a total sum level analysis, were investigated in detail. It is concluded that selecting similar projects at $12{\sim}19%$ out of the whole database will produce a more precise forecasting. The new forecasting model, which suggests the predicted values based on previous projects, is more than just a forecasting methodology; it provides a bridge that enables current data collection techniques to be used within the context of the accumulated information. This will eventually help all the participants in the construction industry to build up the knowledge derived from invaluable experience.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.121-130
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• 2011

Real option values of early termination payment for selected BTO PPI projects are studied using binomial models. Two cases of early termination payments are considered; an option with the condition of private participants' default, and an option without the condition. Values vary depending upon parameter values such as revenues, costs, discount rates, debt ratio, and volatility of revenues. For selected projects, the option values without the default condition are estimated as 1%~7% of total project costs, whereas the option values with the default condition are estimated as 0%~1.89% of total project cost. When actual revenues differ from the forecasted revenues, apparently the option values deviate from the values based upon the forecasted revenues. When actual revenues fall short of the forecasted revenues, the option values increase by a large amount whereas the option values decrease by a small amount in the opposite case. This implies that the option values can be quite bigger than the values based upon the forecasted revenue especially when the revenue forecast uncertainty is large. This study is expected to play an important role in improving the early termination payment option policy of the government in PPI projects in Korea.