• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.175-180
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• 2006

Total conceptual cost estimates and the assessment of the reliability of these estimates are critical in the early stages of a building construction project. The purpose of this study is to propose the method to clients or estimators for improving the reliability of conceptual cost estimates by evaluating the reliability of conceptual cost estimates. The data from 83 building construction projects were collected for this study. The results showed that the proposed method can propose alternatives to clients or estimators for improving the reliability of conceptual cost estimates with the process of evaluation, review and feedback. This process can assist clients in their evaluation of the reliability of the estimated cost and the probability of exceeding the target cost, and in their re-estimation after dealing with the elements that influence the conceptual cost estimate badly.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.71-78
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• 1997

In this paper, we consider a hierarchical Bayes estimation of the parameter, the reliability and failure rate functions based on type-II censored samples from a Burr type-？ failure time model. The Gibbs sampler a, pp.oach brings considerable conceptual and computational simplicity to the calculation of the posterior marginals and reliability. A numerical study is provided.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.937-942
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• 2005

It is necessary to estimate the runoff hydrograph and peak flood discharge using law of probability for synthetic flood control policy and design of hydraulic structures. Rainfall analysis is needed in the process of peak flood discharge estimation and the time distribution of a design rainfall is a very important process in the analysis. In this study, we estimate design flood for a small urban basin and a rural basin of medium scale which have different travel times. The Huff method is widely used in Korea for the time distribution of design rainfall to estimate design flood. So, we use Huff method and a conceptual method which is suggested in this study for the comparative purpose. The 100-year frequency rainfall is used to estimate design flood for each basin and the design flood is compared with the existing design flood. As the result, the design flood is overestimated $14.6m^3/sec$ by Huff method and is underestimated $70.9m^3/sec$ by a conceptual method for the rural basin. For the small urban basin, the design flood is excessively overestimated $294.65m^3/sec$ by Huff method and is overestimated $173m^3/sec$ by a conceptual method. The reason of excessive overestimation by Huff method in the small urban basin is that the increased rate of rainfall intensity according to the decrease of duration is large and the duration exceeds the time of concentration when the increased rainfall intensity is concentrated in a quartile. Therefore, we suggested a conceptual method for the time distribution of design rainfall by considering the rainless period and duration. Especially, the conceptual method might be useful for the small urban basin with short concentration time which the design flood is overestimated by Huff method.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.152-163
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• 2012

At the conceptual phase of a construction project, estimated construction cost is very important as it significantly influences the owner's decision-making. Accurate cost estimating, in the early stage of a public construction project, serves as a critical factor because initial decision-making effects the final cost of a construction project. However in the cases of Korean public apartment projects, excluding a few of the public owners, there is a problem in properly estimating construction cost due to the lack of construction cost estimating system. Thus, this research developed a public apartment cost estimating system using case-based reasoning that was suggested by a previous research with 66 cases of Korean public apartment projects. Based on the system experiments involving 19 public officers and 10 cases of Korean public apartment projects, the effectiveness of the system in terms of estimation accuracy and user-friendly was confirmed. As a result, the developed system has an error range of 1.47% to 13.74% and mean of 6.15%. In addition, the system was evaluated that it could greatly improve the current estimation task of public officers. Consequently, the results of this research can be used as a foundation for a technological advance in estimating construction cost and improving the accuracy and consistency of construction cost estimation.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.495-506
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• 2021

A Conceptual cost estimate, which is computed in the preliminary step of a project, is important for decision-making by a contractor in terms of the project budget, economic feasibility and validity analysis, and alternative comparisons. Therefore, a high error rate of a prediction model for a conceptual cost estimate can lead to various problems including excessive project expenditures and a delayed break-even point. this study proposed optimal impact factors by configuring quantitative impact factors computable in a preliminary step in various cases(combinations of impact factors). subsequently, the accuracy of different cases was comparatively analyzed by using the cases as input values of a prediction model using regression analysis. when the optimal combination of impact factors proposed in this study and other combination of impact factors were applied to the prediction model, the regression analysis-based prediction model exhibited 0.2-4.7% improvements in accuracy, respectively. the optimal combination of impact factors proposed in this study improved the accuracy of the prediction model of a conceptual cost estimate by removing unnecessary impact factor.

• Water for future
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.193-202
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• 1995

The subjective research attempts to apply a rainfall-runoff model capable of considering time-variation of soil water contents which are highly correlated to the river flows on the qpqyungchang river basin and to evaluate its performance for flow forecasting. The model used in this study is a physically-based conceptual time-continuous model, which is composed of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model and the nonlinear multiple conceptual reservoirs model. The daily precipitation and evaporation data for 7 years and for 3 years were used for the parameter estimation and the model verification, respectively. As a result, the flows including a significant flood event were well simulated, and the cross-correlation coefficient between observed flows and computed flows for the verification periods was 0.87, but in general computed flows were underestimated for the low-flow periods. Also, the effects of precipitation and soil water content to the river flows were analysed for the flood and the drought.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.15-21
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• 2015

This paper presents the feasibility study on $CO_2$ carrier for carbon dioxide marine geological storage. Conceptual design was carried out to acquire $CO_2$ carriers by retrofitting existing vessels and new ship-building. Based on conceptual design, the acquisition cost of $CO_2$ carriers was estimated. Finally, necessary expense and number of ships were estimated based on operational plans for the assumed scenario.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.16-24
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• 2012

In this study, two-stage hypersonic scramjet vehicle was designed for the flight condition of Mach number 6. In order to launch at sea level, two stage concept was applied. The first stage of the vehicle is solid rocket-powered and is mounted under the second stage. The second stage is powered by scramjet propulsion system and gas wings. The suggested mission scenario is to deliver 0.2 ton payload to the range of 2,000 km. For the first step of conceptual design, trajectory of air vehicle was calculated by 3-DOF trajectory code. Based on the result of trajectory code, scramjet engine design and mass estimation were performed by non-equilibrium nozzle flow code and NASA's HASA model, respectively. In order to find best solution, all steps of designing process was iterated until they was reached.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.285-285
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• 2011

우리나라의 하천 상류지역의 유역들은 신뢰할 수 있는 수문자료의 미비로 인하여, 관행적으로 모형의 변수를 산정하여 강우유출모형을 적용하고 있다. 그러나 상류지역의 빈번한 홍수 피해 및 수자원관리의 문제발생 등으로 인하여 이러한 상류지역의 중소유역의 신뢰할 수 있는 홍수량산정 방법이 요구되고 있다. 이는 영국의 국가 홍수량 산정 표준방법(Flood Estimation Handbook)과같이 강우유출모형의 지역화를 통하여 해결 할 수 있다. 지역화를 위한 강우유출모형의 선정을 위하여 9개의 개념적 강우유출모형을 충청북도 미호천 상류 7개의 소유역에 적용하여 모형의 성능을 평가하였다. 이는 유효우량 산정을 위한 3개의 개념적 토양저류함수 모형(Soil Moisture Accounting: Modified Penman Type Model(MP), Catchment Wetness Index Model(CWI), Probability Distribution Model(PDM))과 3개의 유역유출을 위한 3개의 개념적 유출모형(Routing: 2-Conceptual Reservoir Model(2PAR), 3-Conceptual Reservoir Model(3PAR), Marcropore Model(2PMP))의 조합으로 총 9개의 모형을 검토하였다. 이를 검정기간(2004.01.01-2007.12.31) 과 검증기간(2008.01.01-2009.12.31)의 장단기 유출성능을 Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency 로 평가한 결과, 시간 단위의 단기모의에서는 CWI-2PMP와 PDM-2PMP모형이, 일 단위의 장기모의에서는 CWI-3PAR와 PDM-2PMP가 우수한 성능을 보이고 있다. 향후 금강 상류유역의 기본 강우유출모형으로 PDM-2PMP모형을 선정한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.309-317
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• 2011

In this study, two-stage hypersonic scramjet vehicle was designed for the flight condition of Mach number 6. In order to launch at sea level and Mach number 0, two stage concept was applied. The first stage of the vehicle is rocket-powered and is mounted under the second stage. The second stage is scramjet-powered propulsion system and has wing. The suggested mission scenario is to deliver 0.2 ton payload to the range less of 2000km. For the first step of conceptual design, trajectory of air vehicle was calculated by 3-DOF trajectory code. Based on the result of trajectory code, scramjet engine design and mass estimation were performed by non-equilibrium nozzle flow code and NASA's HASA model, respectively. In order to find best solution, all step of designing process was iterated until they were converged.