• Title/Summary/Keyword: Conceptual Estimation

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The Development of Performance Analysis Code for Conceptual Design of Jet Fighters (전투기의 개념설계를 위한 성능해석 프로그램 개발)

  • Kim, Taewoo;Choi, Hyunmin;Choi, Byungryul;Lee, Sungjin;Nam, Hwajin;Choi, Donghoon;Cho, Jinsoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.404-414
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    • 2013
  • In the conceptual design phase of jet fighters, the trade study is performed repeatedly for a selection of the baseline configuration. The automation of repeated trade study makes possible to select efficiently the baseline configuration. In this study, the performance analysis code was developed for the automation of trade study. The code was consists of the module of shape generation, the module of weight estimation, the module of mission performance analysis. 3D CAD Model can be generated by the module of shape generation and Weight can be estimated by using the empirical equation in the module of weight estimation. The module of mission performance analysis was able to calculate the mission performance about the arbitrary mission profile. In addition, the optimal mission performance can be calculated by using optimization method. By performing the validation, the code was confirmed to be able to apply to the conceptual design phase.

The Conceptual Cost Estimate Model on Preliminary Design Phase for RC Rahmen Bridge (RC라멘교의 기본설계단계 개략공사비 산정모델)

  • Kim, Byung-Soo;Kwon, Suk-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2009
  • The conceptual cost estimation used the construction project needs for confirm budget not only at the planning phase but also at the preliminary design phase of the construction project. Present, the conceptual cost estimation model have problems the rate of error is very large because the linear simple model calculate by use the cost of the unit meter or the unit square. This study development the model used grouping and the key quantity method, the mixed unit cost for solve problem of the very large rate of error. The result of this study reduced difference of between the real design construction cost therefor it expect that contribute to the client or the service company estimate budget of RC rahmen bridge.

Adaptable conceptual aircraft design model

  • Fioriti, Marco
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.43-67
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents a new conceptual design model ACAD (Adaptable Conceptual Aircraft Design), which differs from the other models due to its considerable adaptability to the different classes of aircraft. Another significant feature is the simplicity of the process which leads to the preliminary design outputs and also allowing a substantial autonomy in design choices. The model performs the aircraft design in terms of total weight, weight of aircraft subsystems, airplane and engine performances, and basic aircraft configuration layout. Optimization processes were implemented to calculate the wing aspect ratio and to perform the design requirements fulfillment. In order to evaluate the model outcomes, different test cases are presented: a STOL ultralight airplane, a new commuter with open-rotor engines and a last generation fighter.

Conceptual Design of a Ducted Fan for Helicopter Anti-Torque System

  • Hwang, Chang-Jeon
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2005
  • Ducted fans have advantages in noise as well as operational safety aspects compared to conventional tail rotors and are used as an anti-torque system for various classes of helicopters. The final goal of this study is to develop a ducted fan anti-torque system which can replace conventional tail rotors of existing helicopters to achieve safety enhancement and low noise level. In this paper, a conceptual design process and the results are described. Initially, the design requirement and the design parameter characteristics are analysed, and then initial sizing and configuration design are performed. There are several configuration changes due to specific technical reasons in each case. Finally, the required power and the pitch link load are predicted as an initial estimation. The conceptual design technique for the ducted fan in this study can be easily applied to the design of other ducted fans such as the lift fan for unmanned aerial vehicle.

A Conceptual Investment Cost Estimation Using by Cost Indices for the Train Control Facility of High-speed Rail Project (원가지수를 이용한 고속철도 설비의 개략적 투자비 추정기법)

  • Lee, Young-Joo;Lee, Yong-Eok;Jang, Seong-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.194-202
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    • 2011
  • Most of Orders of Magnitude estimate are based on historical data. This data is converted to the current price using by the cost index method mainly. This method, however, is rarely utilized or only for one-time use due to the lack of data and the complex escalation calculation method. This paper present a typical process on the conceptual investment cost estimation using by Cost Indexes based on the actual case for the Train Control facility of High-speed rail project. The result is expected to serve as both an easy way for Order of Magnitude estimate and a standard guideline for computerized modeling.

ESTIMATING COSTS DURING THE INITIAL STAGE OF CONCEPTUAL PLANNING FOR PUBLIC ROAD PROJECTS: CASE-BASED REASONING APPROACH

  • Seokjin Choi;Donghoon Yeo;Seung H. Han
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1183-1188
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    • 2009
  • Estimating project costs during the early stage of conceptual planning is very important when deciding whether to approve the project and allocate an appropriate budget. However, due to greater uncertainties involved in a project, it is challenging to estimate costs during this initial stage within a reasonable tolerance. This paper attempts to develop a cost-estimate model for public road projects under these circumstances and limitations. In the conceptual planning stage of a road project, there is only limited information for cost estimation, for example, such input data as total length of the route, origin and destination, number of lanes, general geographic characteristics of the route, and other basic attributes. This implies that the model should individuate suitable but restricted information without considering detailed features such as quantity of earthwork and a detailed route of a given condition. With these limited facts, this paper applies a case-based reasoning (CBR) method to solve a new problem by deriving similar past problems, which in turn is used to estimate the cost of a given project based on best-fitted previous cases. To develop a CBR cost-estimate model, the authors classified 8 representative variables, including project type, the number of lanes, total length, road design grades, etc. Then, we developed the CBR model, primarily by using 180 actual cases of public road projects, procured over the last decade. With the CBR model, it was found that the degree of error in estimation can be reasonably reduced, to below approximately 30% compared to the final costs estimated upon the completion of detailed design.

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Conceptual Cost Estimation Model Using by a Parametric Method for High-speed Railroad (매개변수기법을 이용한 고속철도 노반공사의 개략공사비 예측모델)

  • Lee, Young Joo;Jang, Seong Yong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.4D
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    • pp.595-601
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    • 2011
  • There is currently applied to the unit cost per a distance (KRW/km) for estimating the conceptual cost of civil work on basic planning stage of high speed railroad. This unit cost is an arithmetic average value based on historical data, which could be in big error. It also is difficult to explain the deficiency comparing the estimated cost derived from next basic design stage. This study provides the conceptual estimation model using by the parametric method and regression analysis. Independent variables are the distance and the geological materials (earth, weathered rock, soft-rock, hard-rock), extracting from the actual data to 36 contracts. The deviation between the unit costs estimated using the developed model and the actual cost data is presented in the range from -0.4% to +31%. This range is acceptable compared the typical range "-30% to + 50%". This model will improve the accuracy of existing method and be expected to contribute to effective total cost management and the economic aspects, reduce the financial expenditure.

A Study on the Model of Artificial Neural Network for Construction Cost Estimation of Educational Facilities at Conceptual Stage (교육시설의 개념단계 공사비예측을 위한 인공신경망모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Jae-Ho;Kim, Chung-Yung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.4 s.32
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is propose an Artificial Neural Network(ANN) model for the construction estimate of the public educational facility at conceptual stage. The current method for the preliminary cost estimate of the public educational facility uses a single-parameter which is based on basic criteria such as a gross floor area. However, its accuracy is low due to the nature of the method. When the difference between the conceptual estimate and detailed estimate is huge, the project has to be modified to meet the established budget. Thus, the ANN model is developed by using multi-parameters in order to estimate the project budget cost more accurately. The result of the research shows 6.82% of the testing error rates when the developed model was tested. The error rates and the error range of the developed model are smaller than those of the general preliminary estimating model at conceptual stage. Since the proposed ANN model was trained using the detailed estimate information of the past 5 years' school construction data, it is expected to forecast the school project cost accurately.

Development of the Approximate Cost Estimating Model Using Statistical Inference for PSC Box Girder Bridge Constructed by the Incremental Launching Method (통계적 기법을 활용한 ILM압출공법 교량 상부공사 개략공사비 산정모델 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Bum;Cho, Ji-Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.781-790
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    • 2013
  • This research focuses on development of the conceptual cost estimation models for I.L.M box girder bridge. The current conceptual cost estimation for public construction projects is dependent on governmental average unit price references which has been regarded as inaccurate and unreliable by many experts. Therefore, there have been strong demands for developing a better way of conceptual cost estimating methods. This research has proposed three different conceptual cost estimating method for a P.S.C. girder bridge built with the I.L.M method. Model (I) attempts to seek the proper breakdown of standard works that are accountable for more than 95 percentage in total cost and calculates the amount of standard work's materials from the standard section and volume of I.L.M box girder bridge. Model (II) utilizes a correlation analysis (coefficient over 0.6 or more) between breakdown of standard works and input data that would be considered available information in preliminary design phase. Model(III) obtains conceptual estimating through multiple-regression analysis between the breakdown of standard works and all of input data related to them. In order to validate the clustering of coverage in the preliminary design phase, the variation of I.L.M cost coverage from multiple-regression analysis[model(III)] has been investigated which result in between -3.76% and 11.79%, comparing with AACE(Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering) which informs its variation between -5% and +15% in the design phase. The model proposed from this research are envisioned to be improved to a great distinct if reliable cost date for P.S.C. girder bridges can be continually collected with reasonable accuracies.

Development of a Conceptual Estimate Methodology for Plant Construction Projects (플랜트 건설 프로젝트를 위한 개산견적 방법론 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun-Joong;Choi, Jaehyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2019
  • In the overseas plant construction market, the domain construction firms' construction capability has been greatly improved, but the capability of project management is evaluated to be insufficient compared to the technical aspect. Project management capabilities from the initial planning stage of project execution are regarded as the core competence of advanced construction companies. Among them, it is urgent to improve the capacity of conceptual estimate for domestic companies. In this study, the researchers surveyed and analyzed the methodology of estimating project cost in the planning phase of the plant project and developed an estimation method by conducting a case study analysis. Based on the logic of the cost index and parametric estimation method among the existing estimation methodology, the estimation tool was developed by deriving the input and output variables tailored to the plant project. The validity of the proposed methodology was evaluated by comparing the accuracy between the project estimate amount of the case project and the actual project amount. In order to increase the utilization of the developed conceptual estimate methodology,for plant construction project, it is necessary to systematize the data of the historical project data. Increasing the accuracy of future project cost estimates is directly related to increasing project award and profitability of the domestic construction company.