• Title/Summary/Keyword: Complex Failure Prediction

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Statistical Life Prediction on IASCC of Stainless Steel for PWR Core Internals (가압형 경수로 스테인리스강 내부 구조물의 조사유기 응력부식균열에 대한 통계적 수명 예측)

  • Kim, Sung-Woo;Hwang, Seong-Sik;Lee, Yeon-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Metals and Materials
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.583-589
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    • 2012
  • This work is concerned with a statistical approach to the life prediction on irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) of stainless steel (SS) for core internals of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). The previous results of the time-to-failure of IASCC measured on neutron-irradiated stainless steel components were statistically analyzed in terms of stress and irradiation. The accelerating life testing model of IASCC of cold worked Type 316 SS was established based on an inverse power model with two stress-variables, the applied stress and irradiation dose. Considering the variation of the yield strength and applied stress with the irradiation dose in the model, the remaining life of the baffle former bolt was statistically predicted during operation under complex environments of stress and irradiation.

Numerical Investigation of the Progressive Failure Behavior of the Composite Dovetail Specimens under a Tensile Load (인장하중을 받는 복합재료 도브테일 요소의 점진적인 파손해석)

  • Park, Shin-Mu;Noh, Hong-Kyun;Lim, Jae Hyuk;Choi, Yun-Hyuk
    • Composites Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.337-344
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the progressive failure behavior of the composite fan blade dovetail element under tensile loading is numerically investigated through finite element(FE) simulation. The accuracy of prediction by FE simulation is verified through tensile testing. The dovetail element is one of the joints for coupling the fan blade with the disk in a turbofan engine. The dovetail element is usually made of a metal material such as titanium, but the application of composite material is being studied for weight reduction reasons. However, manufacturing defects such as drop-off ply and resin pocket inevitably occur in realizing complex shapes of the fan blade made by composite materials. To investigate the effect of these manufacturing defects on the composite fan blade dovetail element, we performed numerical simulation with FE model to compare the prediction of the FE model and the tensile test results. At this time, the cohesive zone model is used to simulate the delamination behavior. Finally, we found that FE simulation results agree with test results when considering thermal residual stress and through-thickness compression enhancement effect.

Neuro-fuzzy based prediction of the durability of self-consolidating concrete to various sodium sulfate exposure regimes

  • Bassuoni, M.T.;Nehdi, M.L.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.573-597
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    • 2008
  • Among artificial intelligence-based computational techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are particularly suitable for modelling complex systems with known input-output data sets. Such systems can be efficient in modelling non-linear, complex and ambiguous behaviour of cement-based materials undergoing single, dual or multiple damage factors of different forms (chemical, physical and structural). Due to the well-known complexity of sulfate attack on cement-based materials, the current work investigates the use of ANFIS to model the behaviour of a wide range of self-consolidating concrete (SCC) mixture designs under various high-concentration sodium sulfate exposure regimes including full immersion, wetting-drying, partial immersion, freezing-thawing, and cyclic cold-hot conditions with or without sustained flexural loading. Three ANFIS models have been developed to predict the expansion, reduction in elastic dynamic modulus, and starting time of failure of the tested SCC specimens under the various high-concentration sodium sulfate exposure regimes. A fuzzy inference system was also developed to predict the level of aggression of environmental conditions associated with very severe sodium sulfate attack based on temperature, relative humidity and degree of wetting-drying. The results show that predictions of the ANFIS and fuzzy inference systems were rational and accurate, with errors not exceeding 5%. Sensitivity analyses showed that the trends of results given by the models had good agreement with actual experimental results and with thermal, mineralogical and micro-analytical studies.

Fatigue Reliability Analysis Model for GFRP Composite Structures (GFRP 복합구조의 피로신뢰성 해석모형에 관한 연구)

  • 조효남;신재철;이승재
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1991.10a
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    • pp.29-32
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    • 1991
  • It is well known that the fatigue damage process in composite materials is very complicated due to complex failure mechanisms that comprise debounding, matrix cracking, delamination and fiber splitting of laminates. Therefore, the residual strength, instead of a single dominant crack length, is chosen to describe the criticality of the damage accumulated in the sublaminate. In this study, two models for residual strength degradation established by Yang-Liu and Tanimoto-Ishikawa that are capable of predicting the statistical distribution of both fatigue life and residual strength have been investigated and compared. Statistical methodologies for fatigue life prediction of composite materials have frequently been adopted. However, these are usually based on a simplified probabilistic approach considering only the variation of fatigue test data. The main object of this work is to propose a fatigue reliability analysis model which accounts for the effect of all sources of variation such as fabrication and workmanship, error in the fatigue model, load itself, etc. The proposed model is examined using the previous experimental data of GFRP and it is shown that it can be practically applied for fatigue problems in composite materials.

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Markov Process에 의한 시스템의 신뢰도 해석

  • Im, Deok-Bin;Lee, Dae-Gi
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 1983
  • When analyzing a complex system with repair environments, it is necessary to calculate such parameters as availability and various kinds of failure time measures. These measures are defined and methods of calculating them using Markov process are presented. Analyzing the various system states, numerical values of the reliability measures can be obtained by calculating the state probabilities. And these techniques are widely applied to reliability prediction and also to maintenance strategy.

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Reliability analysis for fatigue damage of railway welded bogies using Bayesian update based inspection

  • Zuo, Fang-Jun;Li, Yan-Feng;Huang, Hong-Zhong
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2018
  • From the viewpoint of engineering applications, the prediction of the failure of bogies plays an important role in preventing the occurrence of fatigue. Fatigue is a complex phenomenon affected by many uncertainties (such as load, environment, geometrical and material properties, and so on). The key to predict fatigue damage accurately is how to quantify these uncertainties. A Bayesian model is used to account for the uncertainty of various sources when predicting fatigue damage of structural components. In spite of improvements in the design of fatigue-sensitive structures, periodic non-destructive inspections are required for components. With the help of modern nondestructive inspection techniques, the fatigue flaws can be detected for bogie structures, and fatigue reliability can be updated by using Bayesian theorem with inspection data. A practical fatigue analysis of welded bogies is utilized to testify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Risk Assessment for a Steel Arch Bridge System Based upon Response Surface Method Compared with System Reliability (체계신뢰성 평가와 비교한 응답면기법에 의한 강재아치교의 위험성평가)

  • Cho, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.273-279
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    • 2007
  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of an Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses lot this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be calculated by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms in implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is modeled as a parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts, compared with the previous permutation method or conventional system reliability analysis method.

Comparative Study of the Discrimination of Uni-variate Analysis and Multi-variate Analysis for Small-Business Firm's Fail Prediction (중소기업 부실예측을 위한 단일변량분석과 다변량분석의 판별력 비교에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Jong-Geon;Ha, Kyu- Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.4881-4894
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    • 2014
  • This study selected 83 manufacturing firms that had been delisted from the KOSDAQ market from 2009 to 2012 and the sample firms for the two-paired sampling method were compared with 83 normal firms running businesses with same items or in same industry. The 75 financial ratios for five years immediately before delisting were used for Mean Difference Analysis with those of normal firms. Fifteen variables assumed to be significant variables for five consecutive years out of the analysis were used to in the Dichotomous Classification Technique, Logistic Regression Analysis and Discriminant Analysis. As a result of those three analyses, the Logistic Regression Analysis model was found to show the greatest discrimination. This study is differentiated from previous studies as it assumed that the firm's failure proceeded slowly over long period of time and it tried to predict the firm's failure earlier using the five years' historical data immediately before failure, whereas previous studies predicted it using three years' data only. This study is also differentiated from the proceeding comparative studies by its statistically complex Multi-Variate Analysis and Dichotomous Classification Analysis, which general stakeholders can easily approach.

A Study on Cost Prediction of Highway Operating Risk through a Case Study of Power Failure (정전사고 사례분석을 통한 고속도로 운영 위험비용 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-Hoon;Kim, Kyong-Ju;Lim, Won-Seok;Park, Chan-Jin;Chae, Myung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.78-90
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    • 2009
  • Recently, operation of highway is the complex digital Infrastructure based on complicated IT. The application of IT is increasing more and more in digital Infrastructure. Though IT is very convenient, if unpredicted operating risk of highway occurs, widespread damage can be large. When operating risk of highway occurs, road users are out of smoothly-run service because of the operating interruption. This risk causes unpredicted operating management cost and additional maintenance cost. It will excess over the planned operating cost, which may leads to users's unsafety and operator's insolvency because of income loss. Until now, related studies to find out the risk are not sufficient. The purpose of this study is to suggest risk cost items and to estimate the reasonable risk cost by using simulation method in case of occurring the huge power failure at the operating digitalized highway. This study indicates the several plans to hedge against risk cost and the management of highway project. From now on, it will be used as basic data to confirm the soundness of operating system in Digital Infrastructure.

Assessment of cold-formed steel screwed beam-column conections: Experimental tests and numerical simulations

  • Merve Sagiroglu Maali;Mahyar Maali;Zhiyuan Fang;Krishanu Roy
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.515-529
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    • 2024
  • Cold-formed steel (CFS) is a popular choice for construction due to its low cost, durability, sustainability, resistance to high environmental and seismic pressures, and ease of installation. The beam-column connections in residential and medium-rise structures are formed using self-drilling screws that connect two CFS channel sections and a gusset plate. In order to increase the moment capacity of these CFS screwed beam-column connections, stiffeners are often placed on the web area of each single channel. However, there is limited literature on studying the effects of stiffeners on the moment capacity of CFS screwed beam-column connections. Hence, this paper proposes a new test approach for determining the moment capacity of CFS screwed beam-column couplings. This study describes an experimental test programme consisting of eight novel experimental tests. The effect of stiffeners, beam thickness, and gusset plate thickness on the structural behaviour of CFS screwed beam-column connections is investigated. Besides, nonlinear elasto-plastic finite element (FE) models were developed and validated against experimental test data. It found that there was reasonable agreement in terms of moment capacity and failure mode prediction. From the experimental and numerical investigation, it found that the increase in gusset plate or beam thickness and the use of stiffeners have no significant effect on the structural behaviour, moment capacity, or rotational capacity of joints exhibiting the same collapse behaviour; however, the capacity or energy absorption capacities have increased in joints whose failure behaviour varies with increasing thickness or using stiffeners. Besides, the thickness change has little impact on the initial stiffness.