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Risk Assessment for a Steel Arch Bridge System Based upon Response Surface Method Compared with System Reliability  

Cho, Tae-Jun (한국철도시설공단 KR기술연구소)
Publication Information
Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea / v.20, no.3, 2007 , pp. 273-279 More about this Journal
Abstract
Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of an Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses lot this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be calculated by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms in implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is modeled as a parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts, compared with the previous permutation method or conventional system reliability analysis method.
Keywords
arch bridge; risk assessment; system reliability; response surface method;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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