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http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2014.15.8.4881

Comparative Study of the Discrimination of Uni-variate Analysis and Multi-variate Analysis for Small-Business Firm's Fail Prediction  

Moon, Jong-Geon (Graduate School of Venture, Hoseo University)
Ha, Kyu- Soo (Graduate School of Venture, Hoseo University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society / v.15, no.8, 2014 , pp. 4881-4894 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study selected 83 manufacturing firms that had been delisted from the KOSDAQ market from 2009 to 2012 and the sample firms for the two-paired sampling method were compared with 83 normal firms running businesses with same items or in same industry. The 75 financial ratios for five years immediately before delisting were used for Mean Difference Analysis with those of normal firms. Fifteen variables assumed to be significant variables for five consecutive years out of the analysis were used to in the Dichotomous Classification Technique, Logistic Regression Analysis and Discriminant Analysis. As a result of those three analyses, the Logistic Regression Analysis model was found to show the greatest discrimination. This study is differentiated from previous studies as it assumed that the firm's failure proceeded slowly over long period of time and it tried to predict the firm's failure earlier using the five years' historical data immediately before failure, whereas previous studies predicted it using three years' data only. This study is also differentiated from the proceeding comparative studies by its statistically complex Multi-Variate Analysis and Dichotomous Classification Analysis, which general stakeholders can easily approach.
Keywords
Fail Prediction; Dichotomous Classification Technique; Discriminant Analysis; Logistic Regression Analysis;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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