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Effectiveness of statin treatment for recurrent stroke according to stroke subtypes (뇌졸중 재발에 대한 스타틴 치료의 뇌졸중 아형에 따른 효과성)

  • Min-Surk Kye;Do Yeon Kim;Dong-Wan Kang;Baik Kyun Kim;Jung Hyun Park;Hyung Seok Guk;Nakhoon Kim;Sang-Won Choi;Dongje Lee;Yoona Ko;Jun Yup Kim;Jihoon Kang;Beom Joon Kim;Moon-Ku Han;Hee-Joon Bae
    • Journal of Medicine and Life Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2024
  • Understanding the effectiveness of statin treatment is essential for developing tailored stroke prevention strategies. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of statin treatment in preventing recurrent stroke among patients with various ischemic stroke subtypes. Using data from the Clinical Research Collaboration for Stroke-Korea-National Institute for Health (CRCS-K-NIH) registry, we included patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted between January 2011 and July 2020. To evaluate the differential effects of statin treatment based on the ischemic stroke subtype, we analyzed patients with large artery atherosclerosis (LAA), cardio-embolism (CE), and small vessel occlusion (SVO). The primary outcomes were recurrent ischemic stroke and recurrent stroke events. The hazard ratio for outcomes between statin users and nonusers was compared using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for covariates. A total of 46,630 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed. Statins were prescribed to 92%, 93%, and 78% of patients with LAA, SVO, and CE subtypes, respectively. The hazards of recurrent ischemic stroke and recurrent stroke in statin users were reduced to 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.99) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.62-0.95) in the LAA subtype and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.52-0.76) and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.53-0.75) in CE subtype compared to nonusers. However, the hazards of these outcomes did not significantly decrease in the SVO subtype. The effectiveness of statin treatment in reducing the risk of recurrent stroke in patients with LAA and CE subtypes has been suggested. Nonetheless, no significant effect was observed in the SVO subtype, suggesting a differential effect of statins on different stroke subtypes.

What are the Characteristics and Future Directions of Domestic Angel Investment Research? (국내 엔젤투자 연구의 특징과 향후 방향은 무엇인가?)

  • Min Kim;Byung Chul Choi;Woo Jin Lee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2023
  • The investigation delved into 457 pieces of scholarly work, encompassing articles, published theses, and dissertations from the National Research Foundation of Korea, spanning the period of the 1997 IMF financial crisis up to 2022. The materials were sourced using terms such as 'angel investment', 'angel investor', and 'angel investment attraction'. The initial phase involved filtering out redundant entries from the preliminary collection of 267 works, leaving aside pieces that didn't pertain directly to angel investment as indicated in their abstracts. The next stage of the analysis involved a more rigorous selection process. Out of 43 papers earmarked in the preceding cut, only 32 were chosen. The criteria for this focused on the exclusion of conference presentations, articles that were either not submitted or inconclusive, and those that duplicated content under different titles. The final selection of 32 papers underwent a thorough systematic literature review. These documents, all pertinent to angel investment in South Korea, were scrutinized under five distinct categories: 1) publication year, 2) themes of research, 3) strategies employed in the studies, 4) participants involved in the research, and 5) methods of research utilized. This meticulous process illuminated the existing landscape of angel investment studies within Korea. Moreover, this study pinpointed gaps in the current body of research, offering guidance on future scholarly directions and proposing social scientific theories to further enrich the field of angel investment studies and analysis also seeks to pinpoint which areas require additional exploration to energize the field of angel investment moving forward. Through a comprehensive review of literature, this research intends to validate the establishment of future research trajectories and pinpoint areas that are currently and relatively underexplored in Korea's angel investment research stream. This study revealed that current research on domestic angel investment is concentrated on several areas: 1) the traits of angel investors, 2) the motivations behind angel investing, 3) startup ventures, 4) relevant institutions and policies, and 5) the various forms of angel investments. It was determined that there is a need to broaden the scope of research to aid in enhancing and stimulating the scale of domestic angel investing. This includes research into performance analysis of angel investments and detailed case studies in the field. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of diversifying research efforts. Instead of solely focusing on specific factors like investment types, startups, accelerators, venture capital, and regulatory frameworks, there is a call for research that explores a variety of associated variables. These include aspects related to crowdfunding and return on investment in the context of angel investing, ensuring a more holistic approach to research in this domain. Specifically, there's a clear need for more detailed studies focusing on the relationships with variables that serve as dependent variables influencing the outcomes of angel investments. Moreover, it's essential to invigorate both qualitative and quantitative research that delves into the theoretical framework from multiple perspectives. This involves analyzing the structure of variables that have an impact on angel investments and the decisions surrounding these investments, thereby enriching the theoretical foundation of this field. Finally, we presented the direction of development for future research by confirming that the effect on the completeness of the business plan is high or low depending on the satisfaction of the entrepreneurs in addition to the components.

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Current Status of Informed Consent Form for Acupotomy in Korean Medicine Hospitals and Development of a Standard Informed Consent Form Using Delphi Method (한방병원의 침도 시술 동의서의 현황 조사와 델파이 기법을 활용한 표준 시술 동의서 개발)

  • Jihun Kim;Bonhyuk Goo;Hyongjun Kim;Kyoungsuk Seo;Myungjin Oh;Myungseok Ryu;Sang-Hoon Yoon;Kwang Ho Lee;Hyun-Jong Lee;Jungtae Leem;Hyungsun Jun;Jeong Ihn Sook;Sung Woon Choi;Tae Wook Lee;Yeonhak Kim;Yoona Oh;Kunhyung Kim;Gi Young Yang;Eunseok Kim
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.182-201
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to develop a standard acupotomy consent form that takes into account the unique characteristics of Korean Medicine. The study was motivated by the increasing importance of patient autonomy and the growing number of legal disputes related to medical malpractice in the clinical field of Korean Medicine. Methods: The analysis phase of the study involved a survey of the current status of acupotomy consent forms in Korean Medicine hospitals nationwide. The items of each form were analyzed based on the contents of the Medical law and the standard contract for medical procedures of the Fair Trade Commission (FTC). In the development and evaluation phase, the items and contents of the acupotomy consent form were evaluated using a 5-point Likert scale and content validity was assessed through two rounds of Delphi surveys. In the improvement phase, the contents of the consent form were revised based on the results of a survey of inpatient and outpatient patients in the Department of Acupuncture and Moxibustion at Pusan National University Korean Medicine Hospital, and real-time online meeting. The final version of the standard acupotomy consent form was completed after undergoing proofreading and corrections by a linguistics expert. Results: Only 30% of Korean Medicine hospitals have implemented acupotomy consent forms. The items of the consent forms did not fully include the items presented in the Medical act and the standard contract for medical procedures of the FTC. To address this issue, two rounds of Delphi surveys and a real-time discussion were conducted with a panel of 12 experts on 27 preliminary items of consent forms. The items and contents that met the criteria for content validity ratio, convergence, and consensus were derived. Based on the derived items and content, a standard acupotomy consent form was developed. Conclusions: The standard consent form for acupotomy is anticipated to ensure patient autonomy and enhance transparency and liability in acupotomy. Furthermore, it is expected to serve as evidence in case of medical disputes related to acupotomy and contribute as a reference document for the development of standard consents forms for various procedures of Korean Medicine. However, the limitations of the study include that the survey of consent forms was limited to only training hospitals of Korean Medicine, and the standard consent form is only applicable to adults in Korea. Future studies are needed to address these limitations.

The Relation Between Work-Related Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA) among Vehicle Assembly Workers (자동차 조립 작업자들에서 상지 근골격계의 인간공학적 작업평가(Rapid Upper Limb Assessment) 결과와 자각증상과의 연관성)

  • Kim, Jae-Young;Kim, Hae-Joon;Choi, Jae-Wook
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.48-59
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    • 1999
  • Objectives. This study was conducted to evaluate the association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA) in vehicle assembly line workers. The goal of this study is to show the feasibility of RULA as a checklist for work related musculoskeletal symptoms (WMSDs) in Korean workers. Methods. The total number of 199 people from the department of assembly and 115 people from the department of Quality Control(QC) in automotive plant were subjects for this cross sectional study. A standard symptom questionnaire survey has been used for the individual characteristics, work history, musculosketal symptoms and non-occupational covariates. The data were obtained by applying one-on-one interview for the all subjects. RULA has been applied for ergonomic work posture analysis and the primary ergonomic risk sure was computed by RULA method. Association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and RULA were assessed by multiple logistic regression analysis. Results. A total of 314 workers was examined. The prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms by NIOSH case definition was 62.4%. The distribution of musculoskeletal symptoms by the part of the body turned out to be following; back:41.4%, neck: 32.8%, shoulder: 26.4%, arm: 10.5% and hand:29.3%. The relationship of the individual RULA scores were statistically significant for the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms. As the result of the multiple logistic regressioin analysis, grand final score (OR=2.250 95% CI: 1.402-3.612) was associated with musculoskeletal symptoms in any part of the body.; upper arm score(OR=1.786 95% CI: 1.036-3.079) and posture score A(OR=1.634 95% CI: 1.016-2.626) in neck; muscel use score(OR=3.076 95% CI:1.782-5.310) and posture score A(OR=1.798 95% CI: 1.072-3.017) in shoulder; upper arm score(OR=1.715 95% CI: 1.083-2.715) and muscel use score(OR=2.057 95% CI:1.303-3.248) in neck & shoulder; muscle use score(OR=10.662 95% CI: 3.180-35.742) in arm; writst/wist score(OR=2.068 95% CI: 1.130-3.786) and muscle use score(OR=2.215 95% CI: 1.284-3.819) in hand & wrist.; muscle use score of trunk (OR=2.601 95% CI: 1.147-5.901) in back. Conclusions. Musculoskeletal symptoms of the extremities were strongly associated with individual RULA body score. These results show that RULA can be used as a useful assessment tool for the evaluation of musculoskeletal loading which is known to contribute to work-related musculoskeletal disorders. RULA also can be used as a screening tool or incorporated into a wider ergonomic assessment of epidemiological, physical, mental, environmental and organizational factors. As shown in this study, complement of the analysis system for the other risk factors and characterizing between the upper limb and back part will be needed for future work.

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Analysis of the Radiation Therapy Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Thymoma (흉선종에 대한 방사선치료 성적 및 예후인자분석)

  • Lee, Seok-Ho;Lee, Kyu-Chan;Choi, Jin-Ho;Lee, Jae-Ik;Sym, Sun-Jin;Cho, Eun-Kyung
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: This retrospective study was performed to evaluate the efficacy of radiation therapy (RT) and to investigate the prognostic factors for thymoma when treated with RT. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 21 patients with thymoma and also received RT from March 2002 to January 2008. The median follow-up time was 37 months (range, 3 to 89 months). The median patient age was 57 years (range, 24 to 77 years) and the gender ratio of males to females was 4:3. Of the 21 patients, complete resections (trans-sternal thymectomy) and R2 resections were performed in 14 and 1 patient, respectively. A biopsy was performed in 6 patients (28.7%). The WHO cell types in the 21 patients were as follows: 1 patient (4.8%) had type A, 10 patients (47.6%) had type B1-3, and 10 patients (47.6%) had type C. Based on Masaoka staging, 10 patients (47.6%) were stage II, 7 patients (33.3%) were stage III, and 4 patients (19.1%) were stage IVa. Three-dimensional RT was adminstered to the tumor volume (planned target volume), including the anterior mediastinum and the residual disease. The total RT dose ranged from 52.0 to 70.2 Gy (median dose, 54 Gy). Consistent with the WHO criteria, the response rate was only analyzed for the 6 patients who received a biopsy only. The prognostic factors analyzed for an estimate of survival included age, gender, tumor size, tumor pathology, Masaoka stage, the possibility of treatment by performing surgery, the presence of myasthenia gravis, and RT dose. Results: The 3-year overall survival rate (OS) and the progression free survival rate (PFS) were 80.7% and 78.2%, respectively. Among the 10 patients with WHO cell type C, 3 of 4 patients (75%) who underwent a complete resection and 3 of 6 patients (50%) who underwent a biopsy survived. Distant metastasis developed in 4 patients (19.1%). The overall response rate in the 6 patients who received biopsy only were as follows: partial remission in 4 patients (66.7%), stable disease in 1 patient (16.6%), and progressive disease in 1 patient (16.6%). Acute RTOG radiation pneumonitis occurred in 1 patient (4.8%), grade 2 occurred in 2 patients (9.5%), grade 3 occurred in 1 patient (4.8%), and grade 4 occurred in 1 patient (4.8%). A univariate analysis revealed that the significant prognostic factors for OS were age (${\geq}60$, 58.3%; <60, 100%; p=0.0194), pathology (WHO cell type A-B3, 100%; C, 58.3%; p=0.0194) and, whether the patient underwent surgery (yes, 93.3%; no, 50%; p=0.0096). Conclusion: For the 15 patients who received surgery, there was no local failure within the radiation field. In patients with WHO cell type C, surgical procedures could have resulted in a more favorable outcome than biopsy alone. We report here our clinical experience in 21 patients with thymoma who were treated by radiation therapy.

Assessment for the Utility of Treatment Plan QA System according to Dosimetric Leaf Gap in Multileaf Collimator (다엽콜리메이터의 선량학적엽간격에 따른 치료계획 정도관리시스템의 효용성 평가)

  • Lee, Soon Sung;Choi, Sang Hyoun;Min, Chul Kee;Kim, Woo Chul;Ji, Young Hoon;Park, Seungwoo;Jung, Haijo;Kim, Mi-Sook;Yoo, Hyung Jun;Kim, Kum Bae
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.168-177
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    • 2015
  • For evaluating the treatment planning accurately, the quality assurance for treatment planning is recommended when patients were treated with IMRT which is complex and delicate. To realize this purpose, treatment plan quality assurance software can be used to verify the delivered dose accurately before and after of treatment. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of treatment plan quality assurance software for each IMRT plan according to MLC DLG (dosimetric leaf gap). Novalis Tx with a built-in HD120 MLC was used in this study to acquire the MLC dynalog file be imported in MobiusFx. To establish IMRT plan, Eclipse RTP system was used and target and organ structures (multi-target, mock prostate, mock head/neck, C-shape case) were contoured in I'mRT phantom. To verify the difference of dose distribution according to DLG, MLC dynalog files were imported to MobiusFx software and changed the DLG (0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.3, 1.6 mm) values in MobiusFx. For evaluation dose, dose distribution was evaluated by using 3D gamma index for the gamma criteria 3% and distance to agreement 3 mm, and the point dose was acquired by using the CC13 ionization chamber in isocenter of I'mRT phantom. In the result for point dose, the mock head/neck and multi-target had difference about 4% and 3% in DLG 0.5 and 0.7 mm respectively, and the other DLGs had difference less than 3%. The gamma index passing-rate of mock head/neck were below 81% for PTV and cord, and multi-target were below 30% for center and superior target in DLGs 0.5, 0.7 mm, however, inferior target of multi-target case and parotid of mock head/neck case had 100.0% passing rate in all DLGs. The point dose of mock prostate showed difference below 3.0% in all DLGs, however, the passing rate of PTV were below 95% in 0.5, 0.7 mm DLGs, and the other DLGs were above 98%. The rectum and bladder had 100.0% passing rate in all DLGs. As the difference of point dose in C-shape were 3~9% except for 1.3 mm DLG, the passing rate of PTV in 1.0 1.3 mm were 96.7, 93.0% respectively. However, passing rate of the other DLGs were below 86% and core was 100.0% passing rate in all DLGs. In this study, we verified that the accuracy of treatment planning QA system can be affected by DLG values. For precise quality assurance for treatment technique using the MLC motion like IMRT and VMAT, we should use appropriate DLG value in linear accelerator and RTP system.

Diagnosis of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome Using Overnight Oximetry Measurement (혈중산소포화도검사를 이용한 폐쇄성 수면무호흡증의 흡증의 진단)

  • Youn, Tak;Park, Doo-Heum;Choi, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Yong-Sik;Woo, Jong-Inn;Kwon, Jun-Soo;Ha, Kyoo-Seob;Jeong, Do-Un
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.34-40
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    • 2002
  • Objectives: The gold standard for diagnosing obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is nocturnal polysomnography (NPSG). This is rather expensive and somewhat inconvenient, however, and consequently simpler and cheaper alternatives to NPSG have been proposed. Oximetry is appealing because of its widespread availability and ease of application. In this study, we have evaluated whether oximetry alone can be used to diagnose or screen OSAS. The diagnostic performance of an analysis algorithm using arterial oxygen saturation ($SaO_2$) base on 'dip index', mean of $SaO_2$, and CT90 (the percentage of time spent at $SaO_2$<90%) was compared with that of NPSG. Methods: Fifty-six patients referred for NPSG to the Division of Sleep Studies at Seoul National University Hospital, were randomly selected. For each patient, NPSG with oximetry was carried out. We obtained three variables from the oximetry data such as the dip index most linearly correlated with respiratory disturbance index (RDI) from NPSG, mean $SaO_2$, and CT90 with diagnosis from NPSG. In each case, sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of oximetry data were calculated. Results: Thirty-nine patients out of fifty-six patients were diagnosed as OSAS with NPSG. Mean RDI was 17.5, mean $SaO_2$ was 94.9%, and mean CT90 was 5.1%. The dip index [4%-4sec] was most linearly correlated with RDI (r=0.861). With dip index [4%-4sec]${\geq}2$ as diagnostic criteria, we obtained sensitivity of 0.95, specificity of 0.71, positive predictive value of 0.88, and negative predictive value of 0.86. Using mean $SaO_2{\leq}97%$, we obtained sensitivity of 0.95, specificity of 0.41, positive predictive value of 0.79, and negative predictive value of 0.78. Using $CT90{\geq}5%$, we obtained sensitivity of 0.28, specificity of 1.00, positive predictive value of 1.00, and negative predictive value of 0.38. Conclusions: The dip index [4%-4sec] and mean $SaO_2{\leq}97%$ obtained from nocturnal oximetry data are helpful in diagnosis of OSAS. CT90${\leq}$5% can be also used in excluding OSAS.

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The Usefulness of B-type Natriuretic Peptide test in Critically Ill, Noncardiac Patients (심질환 병력이 없었던 중환자에서 B-type Natriuretic Peptide 검사의 유용성)

  • Kim, Kang Ho;Park, Hong-Hoon;Kim, Esther;Cheon, Seok-Cheol;Lee, Ji Hyun;Lee, Stephen YongGu;Lee, Ji-Hyun;Kim, In Jai;Cha, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Sehyun;Choi, Jeongeun;Hong, Sang-Bum
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.311-319
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    • 2003
  • Background : Previous studies have suggested that a B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP) test can provide important information on diagnosis, as well as predicting the severity and prognosis of heart failure. Myocardial dysfunction is often observed in critically ill noncardiac patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit, and the prognosis of the myocardial dysfunction needs to be determined. This study evaluated the predictability of BNP on the prognosis of critically ill noncardiac patients. Methods : 32 ICU patients, who were hospitalized from June to October 2002 and in whom the BNP test was evaluated, were enrolled in this study. The exclusion criteria included the conditions that could increase the BNP levels irrespective of the severity, such as congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease, and renal insufficiencies. A triage B-Type Natriuretic Peptide test with a RIA-kit was used for the fluorescence immunoassay of BNP test. In addition, the acute physiology and the chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score and mortality were recorded. Results : There were 16 males and 16 females enrolled in this study. The mean age was 59 years old. The mean BNP levels between the ICU patients and control were significantly different ($186.7{\pm}274.1$ pg/mL vs. $19.9{\pm}21.3$ pg/mL, p=0.033). Among the ICU patients, there were 14(44----) patients with BNP levels above 100 pg/mL. The APACHE II score was $16.5{\pm}7.6$. In addition, there were 11 mortalities reported. The correlation between the BNP and APACHE II score, between the BNP and mortality were significant (r=0.443, p=0.011 & r=0.530, p=0.002). The mean BNP levels between the dead and alive groups were significantly different ($384.1{\pm}401.7$ pg/mL vs. $83.2{\pm}55.8$ pg/mL p=0.033). However, the $PaO_2/FiO_2$ did not significantly correlate with the BNP level. Conclusion : This study evaluated the BNP level was elevated in critically ill, noncardiac patients. The BNP level could be a useful, noninvasive tool for predicting the prognosis of the critically ill, noncardiac patients.

Efficacy and Accuracy of Patient Specific Customize Bolus Using a 3-Dimensional Printer for Electron Beam Therapy (전자선 빔 치료 시 삼차원프린터를 이용하여 제작한 환자맞춤형 볼루스의 유용성 및 선량 정확도 평가)

  • Choi, Woo Keun;Chun, Jun Chul;Ju, Sang Gyu;Min, Byung Jun;Park, Su Yeon;Nam, Hee Rim;Hong, Chae-Seon;Kim, MinKyu;Koo, Bum Yong;Lim, Do Hoon
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2016
  • We develop a manufacture procedure for the production of a patient specific customized bolus (PSCB) using a 3D printer (3DP). The dosimetric accuracy of the 3D-PSCB is evaluated for electron beam therapy. In order to cover the required planning target volume (PTV), we select the proper electron beam energy and the field size through initial dose calculation using a treatment planning system. The PSCB is delineated based on the initial dose distribution. The dose calculation is repeated after applying the PSCB. We iteratively fine-tune the PSCB shape until the plan quality is sufficient to meet the required clinical criteria. Then the contour data of the PSCB is transferred to an in-house conversion software through the DICOMRT protocol. This contour data is converted into the 3DP data format, STereoLithography data format and then printed using a 3DP. Two virtual patients, having concave and convex shapes, were generated with a virtual PTV and an organ at risk (OAR). Then, two corresponding electron treatment plans with and without a PSCB were generated to evaluate the dosimetric effect of the PSCB. The dosimetric characteristics and dose volume histograms for the PTV and OAR are compared in both plans. Film dosimetry is performed to verify the dosimetric accuracy of the 3D-PSCB. The calculated planar dose distribution is compared to that measured using film dosimetry taken from the beam central axis. We compare the percent depth dose curve and gamma analysis (the dose difference is 3%, and the distance to agreement is 3 mm) results. No significant difference in the PTV dose is observed in the plan with the PSCB compared to that without the PSCB. The maximum, minimum, and mean doses of the OAR in the plan with the PSCB were significantly reduced by 9.7%, 36.6%, and 28.3%, respectively, compared to those in the plan without the PSCB. By applying the PSCB, the OAR volumes receiving 90% and 80% of the prescribed dose were reduced from $14.40cm^3$ to $0.1cm^3$ and from $42.6cm^3$ to $3.7cm^3$, respectively, in comparison to that without using the PSCB. The gamma pass rates of the concave and convex plans were 95% and 98%, respectively. A new procedure of the fabrication of a PSCB is developed using a 3DP. We confirm the usefulness and dosimetric accuracy of the 3D-PSCB for the clinical use. Thus, rapidly advancing 3DP technology is able to ease and expand clinical implementation of the PSCB.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.