• Title/Summary/Keyword: Change-point model

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On the Change of Flood and Drought Occurrence Frequency due to Global Warming : 1. Change of Daily Rainfall Depth Distribution due to Different Monthly/Yearly Rainfall Depth (지구온난화에 따른 홍수 및 가뭄 발생빈도의 변화와 관련하여 : 1. 연/월강수량의 변화에 따른 일강수량 분포의 변화분석)

  • Yun, Yong-Nam;Yu, Cheon-Sang;Lee, Jae-Su;An, Jae-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.617-625
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    • 1999
  • Global warming has begun since the industrial revolution and it is getting worse recently. Even though the increase of greenhouse gases such as $CO_2$ is thought to be the main cause for global warming, its impact on global climate has not been revealed clearly in rather quantitative manners. However, researches using General Circulation Models(GCMs) has shown the accumulation of greenhouse gases increases the global mean temperature, which in turn impacts on the global water circulation pattern. This changes in global water circulation pattern result in abnormal and more frequent meteorological events such as severe floods and droughts, generally more severe than the normal ones, which are now common around the world and is referred as a indirect proof of global warming. Korean peninsula also cannot be an exception and have had several extremes recently. The main objective of this research is to analyze the impact of global warming on the change of flood and drought frequency. Based on the assumption that now is a point in a continuously changing climate due to global warming, we analyzed the observed daily rainfall data to find out how the increase of annual rainfall amount affects the distribution of daily rainfall. Obviously, the more the annual rainfall depth, the more frequency of much daily rainfall, and vice versa. However, the analysis of the 17 points data of Keum river basin in Korea shows that especially the number of days of under 10mm or over 50mm daily rainfall depth is highly correlated with the amount of annual rainfall depth, not the number of dry days with their correlation coefficients quite high around 0.8 to 0.9.

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A Review on Disaster Response through Critical Discourse Analysis of Newspaper Articles - Focused on the November 2017 Pohang Earthquake (신문기사의 비판적 담론분석을 통한 재난대응에 대한 고찰 - 2017년 11월 '포항지진'을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Yeseul;Jeon, HyeSook;Lee, Kwonmin;Min, Baehyun;Choi, Yong-Sang
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.223-238
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study aims at exploring implications of discourse and social practice produced by various stakeholders in politics, economy and society to provide useful material for effective disaster response in South Korea. Method: Applying the Critical Discourse Analysis model of Fairclough, this study analyzes the newspaper articles of three domestic press companies mainly about the November 2017 Pohang earthquake. Results: As a result, first, the three media companies point out the low effectiveness of disaster response manuals and evacuation training. Second, strengthening shelter services and expanding support for the victims are important for recovery from the earthquake. Third, to prevent the future damages, they suggest the implementation efforts to improve the seismic design and short message service based disaster alert system. Conclusion: Based on the findings, this study suggests to improve the practicality and effectiveness of disaster prevention measures, establish an organic and integrated disaster response system, emphasize the roles and participation of citizens, check the responsibility of experts, and make the media to form sound discourse on disaster response.

Application of Smartphone Camera Calibration for Close-Range Digital Photogrammetry (근접수치사진측량을 위한 스마트폰 카메라 검보정)

  • Yun, MyungHyun;Yu, Yeon;Choi, Chuluong;Park, Jinwoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.149-160
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    • 2014
  • Recently studies on application development and utilization using sensors and devices embedded in smartphones have flourished at home and abroad. This study aimed to analyze the accuracy of the images of smartphone to determine three-dimension position of close objects prior to the development of photogrammetric system applying smartphone and evaluate the feasibility to use. First of all, camera calibration was conducted on autofocus and infinite focus. Regarding camera calibration distortion model with balance system and unbalance system was used for the decision of lens distortion coefficient, the results of calibration on 16 types of projects showed that all cases were in RMS error by less than 1 mm from bundle adjustment. Also in terms of autofocus and infinite focus on S and S2 model, the pattern of distorted curve was almost the same, so it could be judged that change in distortion pattern according to focus mode is very little. The result comparison according to autofocus and infinite focus and the result comparison according to a software used for multi-image processing showed that all cases were in standard deviation less than ${\pm}3$ mm. It is judged that there is little result difference between focus mode and determination of three-dimension position by distortion model. Lastly the checkpoint performance by total station was fixed as most probable value and the checkpoint performance determined by each project was fixed as observed value to calculate statistics on residual of individual methods. The result showed that all projects had relatively large errors in the direction of Y, the direction of object distance compared to the direction of X and Z. Like above, in terms of accuracy for determination of three-dimension position for a close object, the feasibility to use smartphone camera would be enough.

Growth Curves Fitting for Body Weight and Backfat Thickness of Swine by Sex (성별에 따른 돼지 체중 및 등지방두께 성장곡선 추정)

  • Choi, Te-Jeong;Seo, Kang-Seok;Choi, Je-Gwan;Kim, Si-Dong;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choe, Ho-Sung
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to establish proper shipping weight and backfat thickness by applying the growth model to backfat thickness, measured by means of not only body weight, but also ultrasonography, and predicting the changes by age. Three breeds, i.e. Duroc, Landrace, and Yorkshie, were analyzed, and the Gompertz, logistic, and Von Bertalanffy model were used for inference with the parameter of the growth model being sex. As a result, both body weight and backfat thickness showed different growth curve parameters and characteristics at inflection points depending on model selection and sex. As for backfat thickness, in estimating the inflection point, unlike the case of body weight, the inflection ages of the boars of the Duroc breed was earlier than that of sows, whereas the inflection ages of the sows of the Landrace and Yorkshire breeds was earlier than that of boars. More than anything else, in the analysis of the changes in backfat thickness according to body weight, as the body weight reached 145kg, the backfat thickness showed much variation as great as 1.7-3.2 cm in each breed and sex. In addition, unlike the other breeds, the boars of the Landrace breed showed an exponential type of relationship between body weight and backfat thickness. As they grow to become 100 kg or heavier, abrupt change in back fat thickness was confirmed. If the growth of body weight and backfat thickness is understood and the genetic relationship is taken advantage of like this, it would be possible to set desired body weight and backfat thickness, and thus help effectively set the shipping time. If not only the phenotype, but also genetic parameters about growth characteristics are estimated and analyzed additionally, more effective data can be generated.

An Analysis on the Preference and Use-Demand Forecasting of Bus Information (버스정보의 선호도 및 이용수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Won Gyu;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.791-799
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    • 2008
  • To build the system which has high utilization and usefulness for users, it is necessary to know the information type and use-demand that the use want. The purpose of this study is to forecast the preference and demand of utilization for bus information when bus information is offered through cellular phon. The accomplishments of this research are as follow : Firstly, importance on the level of individual factor and the value of change's figure can be evaluated, using preference analysis on bus information by conjoint analysis. Secondly, by establishing the use-demand model bus information using binary logit model, influence factor on whether or not the use of the user. Finally, ordered probit model was built by use behavior model in payment per call or per month of potential user of bus information. Through call times and sensitive analysis by payment methods, elasticity point, optimal payment fee, and use probability was analyzed. This study make application as basic to efficient bus information policy and to improve use rate of bus information in future because this study make it possible to get preference analysis, use-demand analysis and estimation of optimal payment fee which is reflecting various requirement in use of bus information user.

Classification of Seismic Stations Based on the Simultaneous Inversion Result of the Ground-motion Model Parameters (지진동모델 파라미터 동시역산을 이용한 지진관측소 분류)

  • Yun, Kwan-Hee;Suh, Jung-Hee
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2007
  • The site effects of seismic stations were evaluated by conducting a simultaneous inversion of the stochastic point-source ground-motion model (STGM model; Boore, 2003) parameters based on the accumulated dataset of horizontal shear-wave Fourier spectra. A model parameter $K_0$ and frequency-dependent site amplification function A(f) were used to express the site effects. Once after a H/V ratio of the Fourier spectra was used as an initial estimate of A(f) for the inversion, the final A(f) which is considered to be the result of combined effect of the crustal amplification and loca lsite effects was calculated by averaging the log residuals at the site from the inversion and adding the mean log residual to the H/V ratio. The seismic stations were classified into five classes according to $logA_{1-10}^{max}$(f), the maximum level of the site amplification function in the range of 1 Hz < f < 10 Hz, i.e., A: $logA_{1-10}^{max}$(f) < 0.2, B: 0.2 $\leq$ $logA_{1-10}^{max}$(f) < 0.4, C: 0.4 $\leq$ $logA_{1-10}^{max}$(f) < 0.6, D: 0.6 $\leq$ $logA_{1-10}^{max}$(f) < 0.8, E: 0.8 $\leq$ $logA_{1-10}^{max}$(f). Implication of the classified result was supported by observing a shift of the dominant frequency of average A(f) for each classified stations as the class changes. Change of site classes after moving seismic stations to a better site condition was successfully described by the result of the station classification. In addition, the observed PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration)-values for two recent moderate earthquakes were well classified according to the proposed station classes.

Evaluation of difference in respiratory phase between amplitude- and phase-based four-dimensional computed tomography (위상 기반 사차원전산화단층촬영과 진폭 기반 사차원전산화단층촬영 영상에서의 위상차 평가)

  • Lee, So Hyang;Park, Soo Yeon;Kim, Jong Sik;Choi, Byung Ki;Park, Hee Chul;Jung, Sang Hoon
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : Under the assumption of change to the amplitude based sorting, the study will use four dimensional computed tomography imaging (4DCT) arrayed using the phase based sorting to analyze the respiratory phase difference. Materials and Methods : The study analyzed the 4DCT (4-dimensional computed tomography) images of 10 liver cancer patients that were treated with respiratory gated radiotherapy from 2015 February to March. Using RPM respiratory gating (RPM 1.7.5, Varian, USA) equipment, imaging according to respiratory cycle of phase based sorting was acquired and using a treatment planning system (Pinnacle 9.2, Philips, USA) the acquired imaging according to respiratory cycle was used to measure the abdominal movement value by respiratory cycle. The measuring point was the point where the center point of the Marker Block and the body surface met in the 50% phase image and here the coordinate values Lateral, Vertical, Longitudinal (X, Y, Z) were set as reference points, and on the X, Z plane identical to the reference point, using the identical method the Y axis coordinate value of each 0%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% phase images were acquired to quantitatively measure the variation of distance to the Y axis. The abdominal movement value according to respiration was applied to the theoretical model that the value decreases linearly from maximum inhalation to maximum exhalation to divide the variation of my value to predict as amplitude value by respiratory cycle and conversely the variation in amplitude was recalculated with the phase variation deviation value to analyze. Results : The deviation value between expected value and actual location was the largest in the 30% phase with 0.24 cm, and standard deviation was also the largest in 30% phase with 0.13 cm. The effective value of the deviation value derived from the average of the deviation squared value of each patient appeared as minimum 0.7 cm, maximum 0.18 cm, average 0.12 cm, and standard deviation 0.4 cm. Also by dividing the actual movement distance value with the peak expiration value then converting it into %Phase, the deviation value with actual phase 16.5% in 30% phase, 10.0% and 40% phase, 10.0% and 60% phase, 15.4% and 80% phase, and overall average about 13%, and arraying based on amplitude, phase shift occurred and further it was from peak expiration the chance of deviation occurrence was increasingly measured. Conclusion : Based on the results of the study there were differences between value acquired based on theoretical model and actual value. Therefore in respiratory gated radiotherapy using external surrogates, there needs to be establishment of respiration gated radiation system that avoids the combination of two Sorting methods considering that there will be occurrence of treatment and corresponding clinical differences due to the phase difference that occur due to the Amplitude based Phase Sorting.

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Deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of FIDIC White Book - Based on FIDIC Client/Consultant Model Services Agreement, 5th edition 2017 - (FIDIC White Book 일반조건 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출 - 피딕 클라이언트/컨설턴트 모델 서비스 계약, 2017년 5판 기준으로 -)

  • Jei, Jaeyong;Hong, Seongyeoll;Seo, Sungchul;Park, Hyungkeun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2023
  • FIDIC White Book is a Model Services Agreement between the Client and the Consultant. This study aimed to derive the Key Risk Sub-Clauses out of 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of the FIDIC White Book by using the Delphi technique. A panel of 40 experts with more than 10 years of experience and expertise in overseas construction services agreements and FIDIC White Book was formed, and the reliability was improved in the direction of increasing the consensus of experts through a total of three Delphi survey processes. In the first Delphi survey, a closed-type survey was conducted on the impact of risk among 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions on a Likert 5-point scale, and 26 main risk Sub-Clauses were derived. The Content Validity of the results of the first Delphi survey was verified with the CVR value. In the 2nd and 3rd Delphi surveys, a closed-type survey was conducted on a Likert 10-point scale for 26 main risk Sub-Clauses and the risk possibility and impact of each main risk Sub-Clause were evaluated. The reliability of the 3rd Delphi survey result was verified with the COV value. Total 14 Key Risk Sub-Clauses were derived by applying the average risk possibility and impact of each of the 26 main risk Sub-Clauses to the PI Risk Matrix. The results of deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses showed that agreement on specific scope of service, delay management, and change management were the most important. As a result of this study, from a practical point of view, consultants of consulting companies provide guidelines that should be reviewed to minimize contractual risks when signing service contracts with clients. From an academic point of view, the direction of research on deriving key risks related to service contracts for consultants participating in overseas construction is presented.

Development of Highway Safety Evaluation Considering Design Consistency using Acceleration (가속도를 고려한 도로의 설계일관성 평가기법에 관한 연구)

  • 하태준;박제진;김유철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2003
  • Road safety is defined under the minimum design standard and design examination process is consisted of the standard according to current road design. However, road safety in practical way is correlative to not only all element of roads but also road shape, such as, between straight line and curved line and between curved lines. Also. it is related to alignments such as horizontal alignment and vertical alignment, and cross section. That is, the practical road design should be examined in both sides of 3 dimension and consecutiveness (consistency) as the actual road is a 3 - dimensional successive object. The paper presents a concept for acceleration to evaluate consistency of road considering actual road shape on 3-dimension. Acceleration of vehicle is influential to road consistency based on running state of vehicles and state of drivers. The magnitude of acceleration. especially, is a quite influential element to drivers. Based on above, the acceleration on each point on 3-D road can be calculated and then displacement can be done. Computation of acceleration means total calculation on each axis. Speed profile refers to “Development of a safety evaluation model for highway horizontal alignment based on running speed(Jeong, Jun-Hwa, 2001)” and then acceleration can be calculated by using the speed pronto. According to literature review, definition of acceleration on 3-D and g-g-g diagram are established. For example, as a result of the evaluation, if the acceleration is out of range, the road is out of consistency. The paper shows calculation for change of acceleration on imaginary road under minimum design standard and the change tried to be applied to consistency. However accurate acceleration is not shown because the speed forecasting model is limited and the paper did not consider state of vehicles (suspension, tires and model of vehicles). If speed pronto is defined exactly, acceleration is calculated on all road shapes, such as. compound curve and clothoid curve. and then it is appled to consistency evaluation. Unfortunately, speed forecasting model on 3 -D road and on compound curves have rarely presented. Speed forecasting model and speed profile model need to be established and standard of consistency evaluation need to developed and verified by experimental vehicles.

Long-term (2002~2017) Eutropication Characteristics, Empirical Model Analysis in Hapcheon Reservoir, and the Spatio-temporal Variabilities Depending on the Intensity of the Monsoon (합천호의 장기간 (2002~2017) 부영양화 특성, 경험적 모델 분석 및 몬순강도에 따른 시공간적 이화학적 수질 변이)

  • Kang, Yu-Jin;Lee, Sang- Jae;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.605-619
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study was to analyze eutrophication characteristics, empirical model analysis, and variation of water quality according to monsoon intensity in Hapcheon Reservoir for 16 years from 2002 to 2017. Long-term annual water quality analysis showed that Hapcheon Reservoir was in a meso-nutrition to eutrophic condition, and the eutrophic state intensified after the summer monsoon. Annual rainfall volume (high vs. low rainfall) and the seasonal intensity in each year were the key factors that regulate the long-term water quality variation provided that there is no significant change of the point- and non-point source in the watershed. Dry years and wet years showed significant differences in the concentrations of TP, TN, BOD, and conductivity, indicating that precipitation had the most direct influence on nutrients and organic matter dynamics. Nutrient indicators (TP, TN), organic pollution indicators (BOD, COD), total suspended solids, and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), which was an estimator of primary productivity, had significant positive relations (p<0.05) with precipitation. The Chl-a concentration, which is an indicator of green algae, was highly correlated with TP, TN, and BOD, which differed from other lakes that showed the lower Chl-a concentration when nutrients increased excessively. Empirical model analysis of log-transformed TN, TP, and Chl-a indicated that the Chl-a concentration was linearly regulated by phosphorus concentration, but not by nitrogen concentration. Spatial regression analysis of the riverine, transition, and lacustrine zones of $log_{10}TN$, $log_{10}TP$, and $log_{10}CHL$ showed that TN and Chl-a had significant relations (p<0.005) while TN and Chl-a had p > 0.05, indicating that phosphorus had a key role in the algal growth. Moreover, the higher correlation of both $log_{10}TP$ and $log_{10}TN$ to $log_{10}CHL$ in the riverine zone than the lacustrine zone indicated that there was little impact of inorganic suspended solids on the light limitation in the riverine zone.