• Korean Journal of Child Studies
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.243-269
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• 2008

The role of domain-specific causal mechanism information and domain-general conditional probability in young children's causal reasoning on physics and psychology was investigated with the participation of 121 3-year-olds and 121 4-year-olds recruited from seven child care centers in Seoul, Kyonggi Province, and Busan. Children watched moving pictures on physical and psychological phenomena, and were asked to choose an appropriate cause and justify their choice. Results showed that young children's causal reasoning differed depending on domain-specific mechanism. In addition, their causal reasoning on physics and psychology differed by the developmental level of causal mechanism. The interaction of domain-specific mechanism and domain-general conditional probability influenced children's causal reasoning : evident conditional probability between domain-appropriate cause and effect helped children make more inferences based on domain-specific causal mechanism.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.333-354
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• 2008

This study aimed to investigate the role of domain-specific causal mechanism information and domain-general conditional probability in young children's causal reasoning on psychology and biology. Participants were 121 3-year-olds and 121 4-year-olds recruited from seven childcare centers in Seoul, Kyonggi Province, and Busan. After participants watched moving pictures on psychological and biological phenomena, they were asked to choose appropriate cause and justify their choices. Results of this study were as follows: First, young children made different inferences according to domain-specific causal mechanisms. Second, the developmental level of causal mechanisms has a gap between psychology and biology, and biological knowledge was proved to be separate from psychological knowledge during the preschool period. Third, young children's causal reasoning was different depending on the interaction effect of domain-specific mechanisms and domain-general conditional probability: children could make more inferences based on domain-specific causal mechanisms if conditional probability between domain-appropriate cause and effect was evident. To conclude, it can be inferred that the role of domain-specific causal mechanisms and domain-general conditional probability is not competitive but complementary in young children's causal reasoning.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.35-48
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• 2009

The paper proposes a quantitative causal ordering map (QCOM) to combine qualitative and quantitative methods in a framework. The procedures for developing QCOM consist of three phases. The first phase is to collect partially known causal dependencies from experts and to convert them into relations and causal nodes of a model graph. The second phase is to find the global causal structure by tracing causality among relation and causal nodes and to represent it in causal ordering graph with signed coefficient. Causal ordering graph is converted into QCOM by assigning regression coefficient estimated from path analysis in the third phase. Experiments with the prediction model of Korea stock price show results as following; First, the QCOM can support the design of qualitative and quantitative model by finding the global causal structure from partially known causal dependencies. Second, the QCOM can be used as an integration tool of qualitative and quantitative model to offerhigher explanatory capability and quantitative measurability. The QCOM with static and dynamic analysis is applied to investigate the changes in factors involved in the model at present as well discrete times in the future.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.385-398
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• 2014

This study investigated students' alternative conceptions of plate boundaries and their conception revision according to the pattern of students' reasoning. Participants were twenty-two 10th grade high school students. All participants were asked to draw the three types of plate boundaries and to explain their drawings. Nine students participated in the reasoning activity. To this end, a semi-structured interview was conducted during which key questions were asked for the students to individually answer. The key questions used in the reasoning activity were created, by utilizing questions used in the previous studies. The findings revealed that the alternative conceptions of plate boundaries were classified into three levels based on established criteria. Students who attempted a variety of reasoning strategies such as causal reasoning, using an analogy, abductive reasoning, data reconstruction and concept combination, revised their alternative conception to a scientific conception after the reasoning activity. On the other hand, some students could not revise their alternative conceptions because they only conducted an incomplete reasoning strategy. The study also found that they were unable to use other reasoning strategies, either.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1998.10a
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• pp.224-227
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• 1998

This paper proposes inter-level causal reasoning to implement synergistic approach. We decompose KOSPI prediction model into economy and industry level. Two kinds of intra-level QCOM are combined in inter-level QCOM via Inter-level relations. Downward reasoning is achieved by propagating the disturbance in the higher level to lower level while upward reasoning is to analyze the reverse cases.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.323-338
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• 2013

There are multiple process mechanism in causal reasoning, which is estimation of the causal strength between cause and result. Further, because these mechanisms operate on different time phase during causal reasoning, it is highly possible that different individual difference factors are related to individual mechanisms of causal reasoning. Especially, the phenomena of conditionalization and discounting reflect attention to multiple potential causes when people infer the relationship between cause and effect. In this study, we manipulated self-construal which is an individual difference factor that reflects context sensitivity in cognition. As results, no difference was observed in conditionalization between individuals with an independent self-construal and those with an interdependent self-construal. However, independent self-construal group was observed to be lower in discounting than the interdependent self-construal group. The results indicate that conditionalization and discounting are independent cognitive process in human causal reasoning.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.429-436
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• 1995

The purpose of this study is to identify students' alternative frameworks about tide concept, to investigate some characters of them and students' understanding types with increasing grade in secondary school earth science course. The objective questionnaire method was used, and the subjects of this study are 528 students selected randomly in secondary school. The results are as follow. 1) Thirteen alternative frameworks about tide concept, related to the phase change of the moon and the motion of the earth are identified. 2) The alternative frameworks needed mechanical and causal reasoning have the trend reinforced or sophisticated with increasing the grade. And alternative frameworks needed phenomenal and mechanical, phenomenal and causal reasoning are changed little but ones needed phenomenal, variative and basic reasoning change scientifically. The rates of the alternative frameworks needed definitional, empirical, phenomenal reasoning decrease at the learning grade of that concept but increase after that grade. 3) Middle school students have the definitional, phenomenal, empirical and qualitative understanding types but high school students have the causal, analytic, quantitative and mechanical ones on tide concept.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.541-572
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• 2016

Causal reasoning is actively studied not only by psychologists but, in recent years, also by cognitive scientists taking the Bayesian approach. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the recent trends in causal reasoning research with a focus on the power probabilistic contrast theory of causality, a major psychological theory on causal inference. The power probabilistic contrast theory (PPCT) assumes that a cause is a power that initiates or inhibits the result. This power is purported be understood through statistical correlation under certain conditions. The paper examines the supporting empirical evidence in the development of PPCT. Also, introduced are the theoretical dispute between the PPCT and the model based on Bayesian approach, and the current developments and implications of research on causal invariance hypothesis, which states that cause operates identically regardless of the context. Recent studies have produced experimental results that cannot be readily explained by existing empirical approach. Therefore, these results call for serious examination of the power theory of causality by researchers in neighboring fields such as philosophy, statistics, and artificial intelligence.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.15B no.2
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• pp.147-158
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• 2008

Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) are two major frameworks for modeling, representing and reasoning about causal knowledge. Despite their extensive use in causal knowledge engineering, there is no reported work which compares their respective roles. This paper aims to fill the gap by providing a qualitative comparison of the two frameworks through a systematic analysis based on some inherent features of the frameworks. We proposed a set of comparison criteria which covers the entire process of causal knowledge engineering, including modeling, representation, and reasoning. These criteria are usability, expressiveness, reasoning capability, formality, and soundness. The results of comparison have revealed some important facts about the characteristics of FCM and BBN, which will help to determine how FCM and BBN should be used, with respect to each other, in causal knowledge engineering.

• (The) Korean Journal of Educational Psychology
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.367-384
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• 2008

The purpose of this study was to develop picture testing instrument for measuring children's causal reasoning ability on events that can occur in daily life. The measurement instrument contains three domain of human development; haman behavior domain, human psychology domain, and natural/physical domain. Through this study, researchers designed a concept model based on theoretical framework and prior studies and investigated the reliability and validity of the measurement instrument which was developed in accordance with the concept model. For the empirical validation research, a pretest was conducted to 336 elementary school students in grade 2 to 4 in Seoul. Considering reliability and validity of the developed measurement instrument and factor loadings, researchers sorted out 18 questions. And then 18 question test and KICE Critical Thinking Ability Test was conducted to 509 elementary school students in grade 1 to 4 in Seoul. According to the result of the tests, the researchers sorted out final 12 questions. The Cronbach's alpha, reliability of the children's causal reasoning ability test consisted of the final 12 question, was significant as .72. Also, the result of exploratory factor analysis showed that factors of this test were haman behavior domain, human psychology domain, and natural/physical domain. Moreover, the correlation between the KEDI Reasoning Ability Test(2003) scores and the scores of the test developed in the current study was significant as .55. Finally, the result of the analysis about children's grade differences, the development by discrepancy of age was significant in total points and that of each domain. The children's causal reasoning ability test developed by this study can be useful not only for the evaluation of children's thinking ability but also for screening of the handicapped children in thinking ability development.