• 기술혁신연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 시나리오 기반의 전략적 미래예측을 통하여 2030년경 우리나라의 원전산업 분야를 정성적으로 분석하였다. 구체적으로 STEEP맵 작성과 네트워크 분석(Network Analysis)을 활용하여 다차원적인 관점에서 미래원전산업 분야 환경변화 영향요인간의 관계성을 규명하였다. 이어 시나리오 기법을 활용하여 미래원전산업의 핵심 불확실성 요인(Key Uncertainty Factor: KUF)을 중심으로 예상 가능한 3가지의 전략적 시나리오 (Optimistic, Business as usual, Pessimistic)를 생성하고, 해외 원전수출을 위해 정부가 시급히 추진해야 될 시나리오별 공통전략과 최대 위험회피 전략도 함께 제시하였다. 본 연구결과를 통해 에너지 가격, 세계 경기 동향, 원전기술 경쟁력, 원전 마케팅 능력 등이 미래 원전산업 분야의 핵심 불확실성 요인으로 작용함을 알 수 있었다. 또한, 실효성 있는 미래원전 산업의 수출전략 마련을 위해서는 '원전 안전 등 기술력 확보', '원전 인력 확보', '우라늄 등 안정적 자원 확보' 및 '원전 수용성 증대'등에 관한 전략 추진이 중요 정책과제로 상정되어야 함을 제안 하였다. 끝으로 이러한 연구결과에 따른 시사점과 연구의 한계에 대하여 논의하였다.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.451-461
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• 2017

Korean agriculture has recently focused on the 6th dimension of industrialization, which includes the functions of healing and care. The green care and healing business is one of the most representative models, satisfying modern consumers' needs for care or healing in rural agricultural environments. Many studies have shown physical and social benefits from green care and healing, but studies regarding economic performance are rarely found. The present study aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of different green care and healing farm complexes proposed in recent domestic research, with various possible combinations of business scenarios. The results show that most of the scenarios are economically feasible as B/C (benefit-cost ratio) and IRR (internal rate of return) are 1.19 and 8.53%, respectively, under scenario 1. This study also performed a break-even analysis for providing more flexible decision-making information. Overall, scenario 1 from green care and healing site and scenario 4 from green care and healing cluster are found to be superior to the other scenarios in terms of B/C and IRR. The scenarios in this study reflect the domestic farms or complexes which have similar functions of care or healing. Therefore, the results of this study provide information on practical policies and business implications in making decisions on the specific size and operational patterns when adopting green care and healing complexes by central or local governments and private sectors in the future.

• Advances in environmental research
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.125-142
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• 2012

Clean development mechanism (CDM) validity study was conducted to suggest better and more adaptable CDM scenario on water treatment plant (WTP). Potential four scenarios for CDM project; improvement of intake pumping efficiency, hydro power plant construction, solar panel construction and system optimization of mechanical mixing process were evaluated on S-WTP in Korea. Net present value (NPV) of each scenario was estimated based on sensitivity analysis with the variable factors to investigate the CDM validity percentile. Hydro power plant construction was the best option for CDM business with 97.76% validity and $1,127,069 mean profit by 9,813 $tonsCO_2e$/yr reduction. CDM validity on improvement of intake pumping efficiency was 90.2% with $124,305 mean profit by huge amount of $CO_2$ mitigation (10,347 $tonsCO_2e$/yr). System optimization of mechanical mixing process reduced 15% of energy consumption (3,184 $tonsCO_2e$/yr) and its CDM validity and mean profit was 77.25% and $23,942, respectively. Solar panel construction could make the effect of 14,094 $tonsCO_2$ mitigation annually and its CDM validity and mean profit was 64.68% and $228,487, respectively.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.49-61
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• 2012

The tax exemption oil for fishery is expecting that the use of oil is gradually decreasing according to the environmental change such as reductions of vessel force caused by an upswing of oil prices and reduction of fishing vessels in the recent. Such reductions in the tax exemption oil amount have a negative effect on the tax exemption oil business and the fishery infrastructure. This paper studied to provide the basic data for a stable supply thorough the facts affected in the use of the tax exemption oil and the prediction for the use of the tax exemption oil in future. This analysis drew a estimation method by Cochrane-Orcutt repeated proceeding model with an object main factors such as a price of tax exemption oil and vessel force and international oil prices and exchange rates. And this analysis also drew the use of a tax exemption oil by 2000 after set up the scenario using an estimation method drawn. For the use of the estimated tax exemption oil analyzed to decrease within about 81 percent of the present(2020), It should be considering a stability plan for tax exemption oil for fishery in future.

• 한국CDE학회논문집
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.224-233
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• 2013

For the scheduling and the job assignment of the ship hull production design which is a process-based work, we suggest the simulation-based scheduling using the discrete-event-based business process simulation. First, we analyze the ship hull production design process from the perspective of a job assignment to make it into the simulation model using DEVS (Discrete Event System Specification) which is the representative modeling method for a discrete-event simulation. Based on the APIs of the open-source discrete-event simulation engine, we implement the simulation using the Groovy script. We develop the scenario generator in which the user defines detail information of the construction drawing and its member blocks, and design engineers information, and the various setting for the simulation including the job assignment strategy. We use the XML files from this scenario generator as inputs of simulation so that we can get simulation result in forms of Gantt chart without changes of the simulation model.

• 한국도시철도학회논문집
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.223-231
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• 2018

Since the introduction of PSD in 2005, the number of accidents involving passengers falling onto the tracks accidentally or intentionally have drastically decreased, but the number of PSD related passenger accidents is increasing. While existing papers on PSD have been devoted to systemic introduction and system improvement, papers on passenger casuality accidents due to deteriorated PSD have been limited. This paper proposes revising of the scenario model for passenger accidents using classified hazard sources of PSD.

• 한국CDE학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.338-345
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• 2009

c-PMS(collaborative project management system) is a business process(BP) based tool to manage collaborative projects which accomplish common business objectives determined by mutual agreement of companies using limited resources and time. This study analyzes collaborative BP, collaborative projects, and their relation, and proposes the architecture and operation scenario of c-PMS consisted of business process asset management(BPAM) sub-system and project manage(PM) sub-system. BPAM sub-system models private and public BP using a client/server based modeler, defines collaborative BPs process from public BPs, and manages them as companies' asset on a web portal. PM sub-system globally manages collaborative project using planning, execution, monitoring, and analyzing functions.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.71-88
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• 2006

A business process specification (BPS) plays the role of a contracted business scenario in the execution of the B2B business process instances. XML based specification languages, such as BPSS, WS BPEL, etc., are usually adopted for the specifications. However, composing complex XML based specifications are not easy for humans. As an alternative, graphical modeling languages such as UML and BPMN can be employed. This paper presents an UML based modeling method for graphically specifying ebXML BPSS instances (namely, business process specifications). UML diagrams, directly matching with ebXML BPSS, can be reused for understanding and generating ebXML BPSS instances. We discuss the value of the method by developing a business reference library in the area of supply chain management.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.133-144
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• 2020

Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제4권8호
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• pp.1907-1920
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• 1997

본 논문에서는 새로이 재편될 우편 업무를 위한 통합 모델을 설계하였으며, 설계 단계는 다음과 같이 4단계로 나누어 진행하였다. 첫째, 기존의 우편 업무와 재편될 우편 업무를 수집, 운송, 배달 업무로 구분하여 분석하였고, 둘째, 통합 우면 모델 설계시에 적용할 몇 가지 기준을 개발하였으며, 셋째, 모델링 기준을 적용하여 우편 업무 단계별로 객체 지향 모델을 설계하였다. 마지막으로, 개발 모델에 적용되는 메소드를 분류하고 그 중 일부 메소드는 제약 조건과 트리거 개념을 적용한 능동 기반 메소드로 개발하였으며, 일부는 추론 기능을 지원하는 지식 기반 메소드로 개발하였다. 이와 같이 개발된 메소드는 각 정보의 속성값과 캡슐화되어 저장되어짐으로써 객체-능동-지식 기반 우편 업무 데이타베이스 모델을 형성한다. 마지막으로 개발 모델 동작 시나리오와 서비스 시나리오를 구성하여 실제 응용이 가능함을 보였다.