• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.133-143
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• 2012

PURPOSES: Using the collected data for crash, traffic volume, and design elements on ramps between 2007 and 2009, this research effort was initiated to develop traffic crash prediction models for expressway ramps. METHODS: Three negative binomial regression models and three zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for individual ramp types, including direct, semi-direct and loop, respectively. For validating the developed models, authors compared the estimated crash frequencies with actual crash frequencies of twelve randomly selected interchanges, the ramps of which have not been used for model developing. RESULTS: The results show that the negative binomial regression models for direct, semi-direct and loop ramps showed 60.3%, 63.8% and 48.7% error rates on average whereas the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models showed 82.1%, 120.4% and 57.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Conclusively, the negative binomial regression models worked better in traffic crash prediction than the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for estimating the frequency of traffic accidents on expressway ramps.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.331-347
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• 2014

본 연구는 서해에 위치한 태안군을 방문하는 유어객의 방문 편익을 분석하기 위하여 개별여행비용법과 가산자료모형을 이용하여 수요모형을 추정하고 경제적 가치를 측정하였다. 여행객방문속성을 감안하여 분석모형으로 포아송모형(Poisson Model, PM), 음이항모형(Negative Binomial, NB), 절단된 포아송모형(Truncated Poisson Model, TPM), 절단된 음이항모형(Truncated Negative Binomial, TNB)을 분석에 이용하였다. 분석결과 추정계수들은 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났으며, 경제이론에도 부합되는 결과를 도출하였다. 과산포(overdispersion)현상은 발견되지 않았으며, 모형적합도검정을 통하여 절단된 포아송모형이 적정모형으로 선정되었다. 또한, 서해 태안군 해역내 유어활동의 경제적가치를 추정하기 위하여 유어객의 연평균 출조횟수와 최적모형으로 선정된 절단된포아송모형(TPM)으로 분석한 결과 1인 1회 출조당 경제적 가치는 254,453원이며, 1인당 연간 총 경제적 가치는 1,536,896원으로 도출되었다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.79-101
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the Songieong Beach in Off-season, using a Individual Travel Cost Model(ITCM). Songieong Beach is located in Busan but far away from city. These days, however, the increased rate of traffic inflow to the Songieong beach and the five-day working week are reflected in the trend analysis. Moreover, people have changed psychological value. For that reason, visitors are on the increase on the beach in off-season. The ITCM is applied to estimate non-market value or environmental Good like a Contingent Valuation Method and Hedonic Price Model etc. The ITCM was derived from the Count Data Model(i.e. Poisson and Negative Binomial model). So this paper compares Poisson and negative binomial count data models to measure the tourism demands. The data for the study were collected from the Songjeong Beach on visitors over the a week from November 1 through November 23, 2006. Interviewers were instructed to interview only individuals. So the sample was taken in 113. A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. This paper analyzes the effects of determinants on visitors' demand for exhibition using a class of maximum-likelihood regression estimators for count data from truncated samples, The count data and truncated models are used primarily to explain non-negative integer and truncation properties of tourist trips as suggested by the economic valuation literature. The results suggest that the truncated negative binomial model is improved overdispersion problem and more preferred than the other models in the study. This paper is not the same as the others. One thing is that Estimating Value of the Beach in off-season. The other thing is this study emphasizes in particular 'travel cost' that is not only monetary cost but also including opportunity cost of 'travel time'. According to the truncated negative binomial model, estimates the Consumer Surplus(CS) values per trip of about 199,754 Korean won and the total economic value was estimated to be 1,288,680 Korean won.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.737-745
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• 2010

본 연구는 이항분포의 성공의 확률에 대한 신뢰구간추정량들을 비교분석하고자 한다. 일반적으로 대표본의 경우에 적용되는 잘 알려진 신뢰구간추정량과 소표본의 경우에도 적용될 수 있는 정확신뢰구간, 그리고 포아송 분포를 이용하여 구한 신뢰구간추정량과 연속성의 수정을 고려한 추정량들을 소 표본의 모의실험을 통하여 실제포함확률의 측면에서 비교하였다.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.109-116
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• 1988

This study was aimed at determining a regime of flow through rubble mound dike consisted of all sized quarrystons, and deriving a relationship between hydraulic gradient (I) and mean flow velocity (V) through the dike. The analysis was carried out with the data observed after final gap closing of the Haenam Sea dike from May, 6 to May, 14, 1987. The resu]ts are summarized as follows: 1. The regime of flow would be defined as the turbulent flow. 2. As to the relationships, two kinds of formula that are exponential and binomial were obtained. Exponential formula: I=2.099V 1.2888 Binomial formula: I=0.6113V+5.5235V$^2$ 3. Correlation coefficient of the former was 0.824 and that of the latter was 0.821, and the deviations between observed data and estimated were 0.0070 and 0.0064 respectively. 4. Comparing the correlation coefficient, both the equations have the same correlation coefficients, but in case of the deviation the binomial equation was better than the exponential equation. Therefore, the binomial equation is proposed for analyzing the flow through rubble mound dike.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.271-280
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• 2009

급내/급간상관이 동시에 존재하는 이변량 이항자료에 대한 모형으로 Danaher과 Hardie (2005)는 베타이항분포를 제안한바 있다. 그러나 이 모형은 베타분포에 따르는 성공확률을 통해 급내 상관을 묘사하므로 그 적용범위가 양의 급내상관을 가지는 자료에 제한된다. 이 연구에서는 보다 더 넓은 범위의 급내 상관에 대해 유용성을 가지는 일반화가법/승법이항모형과 확장베타이항모형 등에 Sarmanov형식의 이변량 확장을 고려하고 이들을 기존 모형과 적합도의 측면에서 비교한다. 실제자료인 주식자료와 소비자패널자료에 이변량 일반화이항모형들을 적용한 결과, B-mB와 B-ebB의 성능이 우수한 것으로 나타나며, 그 중 상대적으로 넓은 허용범위의 급내상관을 가지는 B-mB가 선호된다고 할 수 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.199-205
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• 1999

본 논문은 초과변동을 갖는 이항자료의 효과적인 분석을 위하여 자료수집 과정에서 반응에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 고려한 혼합효과 모형을 제시하고 이 탈도(deviance)를 이용하여 그 타당성을 논의하고 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.397-410
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• 2007

For the two groups data from multivariate binomial distribution, we consider a bootstrap approach to inferring the simultaneous confidence level and its standard error of a collection of the dependent confidence intervals for the difference of proportions with an experimentwise error rate at the a level are presented. The bootstrap method is used to estimate the simultaneous confidence probability for the difference of proportions.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.817-827
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• 2000

In this paper, we investigate the Bayesian approach to random effect binomial regression models with improper prior due to the absence of information on parameter. We also propose a method of estimating the posterior moments and prediction and discuss some general methods for studying model assessment. The methodology is illustrated with Crowder's Seeds Data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to overcome the computational difficulties.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.131-138
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• 1982

Analogous to Singh's (1978) characterization of positive-Poisson distributioin and Shanmugam and Singh's (1992) characterization of logarithmic series distribution, a characterization and its statistical application of the negative binomial distribution truncated at zero are given in this paper. While it is known that under certain conditions the negative binomial distribution truncted at zero approaches the positive-Poisson and the logarithmic series distributions, we show here that the results of this paper approach in limit the results of Singh, and Shanmugam and Singh, respectively. Using the biologicla data from Sampford (1955), we illusrate our results. Also, expressions are explicitly given to test the hypothesis whether a random sample is indeed from a geometric distribution.